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cover of episode Microsoft, Meta, PCE and GDP Ahead as April Closes

Microsoft, Meta, PCE and GDP Ahead as April Closes

2025/4/30
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Schwab Market Update Audio
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Keith Lansford
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Lizanne Saunders
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Keith Lansford: 我是基思·兰斯福德，这是4月30日星期三施瓦布对市场的初步展望。通胀和增长数据拉开了华尔街繁忙的四月最后一天的序幕，微软和Meta平台的财报也将在收盘后公布。市场几乎摆脱了四月初的低迷，标普500指数本月跌幅不足1%。政府对美国第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）的初步评估即将出炉，以及关键的3月份个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数。分析师预计GDP增速为0.4%，低于第四季度的2.4%。该报告也包含通胀因素，包括GDP平减指数和PCE价格指数，两者都将受到密切关注。GDP疲软可能导致市场震荡，投资者密切关注贸易战对增长的潜在影响；PCE是美联储密切关注的通胀指标，分析师预计个人支出环比增长0.4%。Meta和微软的财报公布，投资者期待了解他们在人工智能方面的支出情况，大型科技公司过去一年大幅增加了人工智能支出，但有报道称这可能正在放缓。Meta和微软的人工智能应用方向不同，Meta关注人工智能驱动数字广告改进，微软关注云计算能力，投资者将关注两家公司对这两个领域的预期指引，以寻找经济衰退担忧可能造成的需求影响的线索。投资者将密切关注微软Azure云计算的增长情况，以及公司整体第三季度的营收预期。Meta上一季度财报超出分析师预期，投资者将关注其对人工智能战略的投资计划以及本季度营收预期。月末可能出现额外波动，但早些时候的剧烈波动已经消退。 Lizanne Saunders: 市场目前处于平静模式，迄今为止，财报季表现好于预期。但未来的预期仍然不明朗，越来越多的公司撤回了预期指引；短期内劳动力市场数据至关重要。分析师预计4月份非农就业岗位增长将大幅下降，从3月份的22.8万下降到13万。美联储目前处于静默期，市场对5月份降息的可能性不到8%，对6月份降息的可能性为65%。3月份职位空缺降至719万，为6个月来的最低水平，这通常预示着经济增长放缓。4月份消费者信心指数低于预期，为86，低于3月份的93.9，为连续第五个月下降；12个月平均通胀预期达到7%，为2022年11月以来的最高水平。美国经济数据疲软导致美国国债收益率继续下滑，10年期国债收益率跌至4.18%以下。美元指数止跌，但仍徘徊在100以下，美国经济数据疲软、对关税相关通胀的担忧以及市场对美联储今年可能降息三到四次的预期都在打压美元。纳斯达克指数和标普500指数上涨，此前市场表现低迷，商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克暗示可能达成贸易协议提振了市场。特朗普放松部分对美国汽车制造商的关税，提振了市场，但公司可能需要更多关于关税规模和范围的明确信息。消费可选、通信服务和科技板块表现强劲，散户投资者和交易员存在逢低买入的心态。周二金融板块领涨，通常是经济预期改善的信号，但一天的数据只是快照。纳斯达克指数4月份上涨近1%，较4月份低点上涨14%，但今年以来仍下跌9.6%

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The last day of April brings Microsoft and Meta Platforms results, PCE prices, and first quarter GDP. The SPX is up six days in a row on trade optimism and yields hit 3-week lows.

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