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cover of episode More Trump Tariffs Cause Stocks to Skid

More Trump Tariffs Cause Stocks to Skid

2025/3/27
logo of podcast Schwab Market Update Audio

Schwab Market Update Audio

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A
Alberto Musilam
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Jeffrey Kleintop
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Keith Lansford
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Michael Townsend
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Keith Lansford: 我是凯斯·兰斯福德,这是施瓦布公司对3月27日周四市场的初步展望。在周三的抛售之后,股市希望能够重拾周一的一些涨势。 周三,由于特朗普总统准备在收盘后宣布新的汽车关税的消息,股市下跌。 Alberto Musilam: 圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆西拉姆表示,美联储可能会推迟降息,因为通货膨胀存在高于美联储2%目标甚至更高的风险。他指出,关税上涨可能会加剧通货膨胀风险。 Michael Townsend: 关税持续是市场上的阴云,但下周关税最终生效后,情况可能会明朗。白宫释放了相互矛盾的信号,最初表示将对所有国家征收关税,后来又表示将首先针对与美国贸易逆差较大的10到15个国家。最初的计划是下周宣布对汽车、药品和半导体征收关税,但据报道这些计划将被推迟。 Jeffrey Kleintop: 不确定性让公司和投资者感到不安。尽管奢侈品和汽车集团表现不佳,但欧洲股市600指数的表现仍优于标普500指数。刺激措施的乐观情绪可能会支撑欧洲股市进一步上涨,而美国销售份额较高的公司下跌则可能导致其月度下跌。在对美国进口关税更加明朗之前,对汽车行业的降级评级不太可能逆转;汽车制造商是今年标普500指数中表现最差的行业群体;德国的刺激计划可能成为长期关键驱动因素。

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Welcome to the Schwab Market Update podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Thursday, March 27th. Stocks hope to rekindle some of Monday's fire after Wednesday's sell-off. Stocks fell on Wednesday on the news that President Trump was set to announce new automotive tariffs after the market close.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musilam said that the Federal Reserve may wait on rate cuts because there's a higher risk that inflation could stall above the Fed's 2% target or even move higher. He noted that rising tariffs could add to inflation risks.

Tariffs continue to be a dark cloud over the markets, but the sky may clear up next week when the tariffs finally go into effect on April 2nd because there should be clarity on who and what is getting targeted.

The White House has been sending mixed signals, observed Michael Townsend, managing director of the Legislative and Regulatory Affairs at Schwab, first saying that they would be imposed on all countries, then more recently saying they will initially focus on 10 to 15 countries with which the U.S. has a big trade deficit. The plan also was to announce tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors next week, but those reportedly will be delayed.

The uncertainty is driving companies and investors crazy. Optimism over increased stimulus is likely to support more gains for European stocks, even as declines in companies with a high share of U.S. sales leaves them on course for a monthly decline, said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. The stock's 600 has outperformed the S&P 500, despite underperforming luxury and autos groups.

Harding's downgrades on autos are unlikely to reverse until there's more clarity on U.S. import tariffs. It isn't just Europe. Automakers are also the worst-performing industry group in the S&P 500 this year. The prospect of German stimulus can return as a key driver in the longer term, continued Kleintopf, especially as economic data continue to show improvement.

Bitcoin futures topped out around the first of the year and fell more than 26% by March 10th. Recently, Bitcoin has moved upward, creating what many technical analysts would call a rising wedge. The rising wedge price pattern is usually considered to be bearish. If the pattern plays out, the downtrend in Bitcoin could continue.

The S&P 500 index fell 64.45 points or 1.12% to 5,712.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 132.71 points or 0.31% to 42,454.79. Finally, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 372.84 points or 2.04% to 17,899.01.

This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash market update or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow. For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.