Nvidia and Salesforce Earnings, Fed Minutes Loom
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Welcome to the Schwab Market Update podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Wednesday, May 28th. The short holiday week is long on data and earnings, with some monetary policy clues mixed in.

NVIDIA's results later today are the big event, but Federal Reserve minutes this afternoon and key output data tomorrow could keep investors on their toes approaching the end of the month. Results from NVIDIA wrap up magnificent seven-earnings season a day after the market roared back on a tariff deadline extension. Analysts expect NVIDIA's revenue and earnings growth to stay strong on a yearly basis, but to slow from the previous quarter.

Guidance will get a close look as NVIDIA has a history of surpassing market estimates. Going into today's report, analysts expect quarterly earnings of $0.88 and revenue of $43.25 billion for the AI giant.

In my view, the keys for NVIDIA remain the overall pulse on AI chip demand and whether any competitive threats from custom chips are taking market share, said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives analysis at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

He added investors have come to expect a beat and raise quarter from NVIDIA while maintaining low to mid 70% gross margins. So forward revenue and gross margin guidance will be important metrics to gauge both demand and pricing. By beat and raise, Peterson meant NVIDIA tends to beat analysts' average revenue estimate and raise revenue guidance for its next quarter by more than analysts expect.

This has been a long pattern and any sign of slowing momentum might disappoint. The options market projects an approximately 7% move for Nvidia shares after its report. Anyone trading that stock actively should be ready for possible volatility.

Before NVIDIA, minutes this afternoon from the May Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, meeting will be mulled for signs of anyone at the Federal Reserve departing from the current playbook of higher-for-longer on rates. Nearly every Fed speaker over the last week has stood by hawkish comments made by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell earlier this month when he warned that tariff-generated inflation could keep the Fed from making any near-term cuts.

The FOMC Minutes today likely won't shed additional light on the path for Fed policy, said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, adding that we expect the Fed to lower rates later this year, but it will be largely dependent on how the labor market evolves. As of late Tuesday, futures trading indicated a 6% chance of a rate cut in June and 25% in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Consumer confidence from the conference board yesterday came in well above expectations with a headline of 98. Analysts had expected the headline to inch higher to 88 from 86 in April, according to Trading Economics. The confidence number might come with a grain of salt as surveys took place when the stock market was in its sizzling recovery from April lows and tariffs had paused.

The data may reflect confidence in the jobs picture, with layoffs still relatively rare and slower inflation growth despite tariff threats. Next week offers key labor market data including job openings, layoffs, and the main nonfarm payrolls report.

Before that, investors get a look at the second government estimate for first quarter gross domestic product or GDP tomorrow. The first estimate was negative 0.3% and analysts expect no change.

Durable orders for April also bowed Tuesday, falling a little less than analysts had expected at negative 63%. Still, core capital goods orders, which exclude both aircraft and defense-related goods, fell 1.3% month over month, worse showing than the negative 0.2% average Wall Street forecast, and possibly the number to keep in mind.

The Treasury market got pulled and pushed yesterday before the 10-year yield settled down more than 8 basis points at 4.43%. The 30-year yield fell even more. Durable orders pushed yields down, but consumer confidence brought them back up. However, decent demand yesterday afternoon for a two-year Treasury note auction helped Treasuries finish the day on a strong note.

Yields move inversely to Treasuries, and the slide in yields appeared to give stocks a boost. A five-year auction is on tap today, and demand will likely affect the Treasury market once again. At one point last week, the 10-year yield briefly topped 4.6% after relatively light demand for a 20-year U.S. bond auction Wednesday, keeping stocks subdued.

The small-cap Russell 2000 index, which is more sensitive to yields than other parts of the market, outpaced the S&P 500 index yesterday with 2.4% gains. Salesforce reports this afternoon along with Nvidia, meaning a late workday on Wall Street. Investors may want to watch futures trading tonight for insight into the market reaction.

Salesforce seems to be back on the acquisition trail after a period of absence, making headlines yesterday with plans to buy data management platform Informatica for about $8 billion in an attempt to improve its position in the AI market.

Stocks surged Tuesday to the highest close for the S&P 500 index since May 20, as investors cheered following U.S. Treasury yields, improved consumer confidence, and a delay in proposed 50% tariffs on goods from the European Union. The broad rally, led by tech, communications services, and consumer discretionary, appeared to be evidence of buying interest when yields retreat and stocks show weakness.

Buy-the-dip mentality is alive and well, said Lizanne Saunders, chief investment strategist at Schwab. Every sector climbed Tuesday, but growth areas outpaced the overall market. Besides the three already mentioned, industrials continue to hold up well and are second behind Infotech in performance over the past month, perhaps a sign that investors are bullish about economic growth despite trade worries.

Caterpillar, Deere, U.S. Steel, Honeywell, and Deere are all up sharply the last few weeks. Homebuilders, semiconductor firms, and travel companies were among Tuesday's best-performing stocks. Technically, the market appeared to gain momentum first on Friday when the S&P 500 index dipped below the 200-day moving average of 5,773 intraday and then closed above that.

Momentum picked up Tuesday when the index pushed through resistance at 5,900. Unlike recent days, the S&P 500 closed near its highs Tuesday, not backtracking in the final minutes. A finish like that sometimes leads to spillover buying the following session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 740.58 points Tuesday, or 1.78%, to 42,343.65%.

The S&P 500 index climbed 118.72 points or 2.05% to 5,921.54. And the Nasdaq composite rose 461.96 points or 2.47% to 19,199.16. This has been the Schwab Market Update Podcast.

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