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cover of episode Payrolls Data Next As Investors Mull Apple, Amazon

Payrolls Data Next As Investors Mull Apple, Amazon

2025/5/2
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Schwab Market Update Audio
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C
Coletta Clare
N
Nathan Peterson
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Coletta Clare: 我是Coletta Clare，这是5月2日星期五的市场早报。投资者正在关注苹果和亚马逊的财报，同时等待关键的4月非农就业报告。最近的数据显示经济增长放缓，例如，周四公布的首次申请失业救济人数激增至241,000人，为数周以来的最高水平，远高于预期的225,000人。持续申请失业救济人数也达到了三年来的新高，为191.6万人。这表明失业人员再就业更加困难。4月份ISM制造业PMI为48.7%，略好于预期，但低于50%，表明经济仍在收缩。4月份裁员人数下降至105,441人，低于3月份的275,240人，但仍高于2020年以来同期水平。第四季度GDP增速下滑，就业报告中的任何疲软迹象都可能加剧人们对贸易战开始影响实体经济的担忧。本周ADP就业报告和职位空缺数据也弱于预期，亚特兰大联储对第二季度GDP增长的预测也从之前的2.4%下降至1.1%。尽管数据疲软，标普500指数仍连续八个交易日上涨，这表明投资者对贸易谈判取得进展更加乐观。预计今日公布的4月非农就业报告将显示就业增长放缓至约13万人，失业率维持在4.2%。工资增长也值得关注，因为任何与关税相关的紧张局势都可能阻止公司发放加薪。预计平均每小时收入将继续增长0.3%，但平均每周工作时间可能保持稳定。如果贸易战导致商品运输受阻，那么对卡车司机、货架管理员和铁路装卸工等岗位的需求将会减少，能源行业也可能受到影响。本周早些时候，由于数据疲软，美国国债收益率承压，但在周四有所上涨，这可能是因为下周将进行大规模的国债拍卖。近期收益率曲线趋陡，这可能是由于人们对与关税相关的通货膨胀和大量债券供应的担忧加剧，尽管期货市场对美联储今年可能降息三次到四次的可能性越来越大。 Nathan Peterson: 亚马逊的盈利和营收均超过预期，但亚马逊网络服务的同比增长低于华尔街预期，为16.9%，低于上一季度的19%。与微软Azure云收入的强劲增长相比，亚马逊网络服务的增长放缓表明亚马逊在这一重要市场上可能正在失去市场份额。亚马逊股票走弱可能与其亚马逊网络服务的增长令人失望有关，其第二季度营收增长预期区间较宽，反映出存在诸多不确定性，包括关税的影响。过去几周，技术面已经得到了一些急需的修复。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

April payrolls jobs growth is seen at 130,000, well below March. Amazon and Apple both disappointed, judging from initial market response, and the SPX is on an 8-day win streak.

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