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cover of episode PCE Price Data Ahead After Fed's Cautious Outlook

PCE Price Data Ahead After Fed's Cautious Outlook

2024/12/20
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Schwab Market Update Audio

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主持著名true crime播客《Crime Junkie》的播音员和创始人。
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播音员:投资者密切关注11月份的个人消费支出(PCE)物价数据,这是美联储最密切关注的通胀数据。PCE数据将影响市场对美联储未来利率政策的预期。此外,11月份的个人消费支出和个人收入数据以及密歇根大学的消费者情绪报告也可能提供有关经济增长和消费者信心的线索。耐克和联邦快递的财报也反映了消费者和商业需求的情况。国会就政府预算案的争论也可能对市场产生影响。 市场普遍预期11月份核心PCE物价指数上涨0.2%,但美联储对通胀的担忧可能会放大任何与预期偏差的影响。国债收益率持续走高,这可能是主要股指未能维持早盘反弹的原因之一。利率敏感型板块(如房地产和能源)跌幅最大,但公用事业和金融板块表现强劲。市场宽度显著减弱,只有不到五分之一的标普500指数成分股的交易价格高于其50日移动平均线。除非政府停摆时间过长,否则政府停摆对市场的影响通常不大,但依赖政府资金的公司(如医疗保险公司和国防承包商)可能会受到影响。 Colin Martin:美联储仍会降息几次,但粘性的通胀将减缓降息的速度和幅度,1月份会议暂停加息的可能性很大。除非通胀或劳动力市场发生重大变化,否则国债收益率将保持在4%以上,但如果拟议的经济政策得以实施,通胀可能居高不下,国债收益率仍存在上行风险。

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Today features PCE prices, the inflation report most closely watched by the Fed, as well as a look at consumer sentiment. Washington is also in focus amid a shutdown showdown.

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