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cover of episode Retail Sales, Fed Ahead as Investors Mull Economy

Retail Sales, Fed Ahead as Investors Mull Economy

2025/3/17
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Schwab Market Update Audio
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Keith Lansford
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Nathan Peterson
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Keith Lansford: 我是凯斯·兰斯福德，这是3月17日星期一施瓦布对市场的初步展望。2月份的美国零售额数据将公布，为投资者提供对消费者活动的最新了解，同时关注经济衰退的担忧。该报告可能会影响本周市场情绪，本周重要的经济数据较少，但公司收益和央行活动较多。1月份美国零售额环比下降0.9%，这可能是由于人们在1988年以来最冷的1月份待在家中。如果2月份出现反弹，可能会缓解人们的担忧。然而，航空公司最近对第一季度增长下降的警告以及沃尔玛等大型零售商谨慎的展望，对零售额的快速复苏提出了疑问。根据Trading Economics的数据，预计今天的报告将显示月度增长0.7%。这些数据公布后，美国股市周五出现温和反弹，结束了另一周大部分时间令人失望的表现，期间政府政策和航空公司削减收入增长存在不确定性，尽管通货膨胀和就业数据看起来令人鼓舞。在低点时，标普500指数较近期高点下跌10%，这使得回调成为正式的修正。大部分损失来自最大的组成部分，七大巨头中的五个在周五进入熊市区域，较峰值下跌20%或更多。 本周还将关注美联储的利率设定委员会会议，该委员会将于周三下午公布其决定，期货市场预计将暂停加息。通货膨胀仍远高于美联储2%的目标，美联储发言人最近表示，他们不急于降息。他们提到美国经济政策的不确定性以及需要观察其如何渗透。公司收益在本周开始时较为平静，但随着联邦快递、美光和耐克等几家关键公司的业绩即将公布，收益将逐渐增加。投资者还将关注英伟达的GPU技术大会，该大会将于今天开始，首席执行官黄仁勋将于周二发表主题演讲。他的讲话可能会影响市场。 此外，投资者可能希望关注的另一个指标是信用利差，该利差上周大幅上升，但在周五略有回落。它们仍然相对较低，但如果上升趋势继续，这将变得更令人担忧。同样令人担忧的是，密歇根大学周五公布的3月份初步消费者情绪数据显示，整体情绪下降至57.9，低于一年前的79.4，也远低于briefing.com的65.6共识。一年期通胀预期从4.3%跃升至4.9%，为2022年11月以来最高水平。较弱的情绪在所有年龄、收入和政治派别群体中都有体现，政策不确定性和通货膨胀都是主要担忧因素。另一个令人不快的是，情绪调查显示五年期通胀预期从3.5%上升至3.9%，为1993年以来最大月度涨幅。在周五的交易中，所有板块均上涨，其中信息技术和能源板块领涨。防御性医疗保健和必需消费品板块涨幅最小。尽管标普500指数上涨超过2%，但本周仍收低，低于其200日移动均线，这是一个关键的技术水平。然而，它在触及10%回调水平后确实反弹了。 Nathan Peterson: 我对进入本周的技术设置感到鼓舞，因为一些技术指标一直在发出超卖信号，但这上周也是如此。我有点担心周一的零售额报告，但我也很想知道，如果报告疲软，鉴于股票最近的回调，股市是否会负面反应。鉴于相对温和的通胀数据和经济进一步放缓的证据，我认为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔更有可能向市场传递更多鸽派而非鹰派的基调。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast begins by discussing the upcoming release of February's retail sales data, which is expected to provide insights into consumer spending and the overall health of the economy. Concerns exist about a potential economic slowdown, given recent data and warnings from various sources. The report is anticipated to show a 0.7% monthly rise, according to Trading Economics.
  • February U.S. retail sales data to be released
  • Could shape market sentiment
  • January retail sales fell 0.9%
  • Expected 0.7% monthly rise in February

Shownotes Transcript

Today's retail sales data and Wednesday's Fed meeting highlight the week, along with Nvidia's GPU Technology Conference. FedEx, Micron, and Nike results are due later this week.

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