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cover of episode Sentiment Data Next Following Defensive Shift

Sentiment Data Next Following Defensive Shift

2025/5/16
logo of podcast Schwab Market Update Audio

Schwab Market Update Audio
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
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Colette O'Claire
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Cooper Howard
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Kevin Gordon
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Lizanne Saunders
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Colette O'Claire: 我认为市场正处于一个关键时刻，消费者情绪将成为市场走向的重要指标。虽然就业市场表现稳定，但人们对失业的担忧以及关税问题可能会对情绪产生负面影响。同时，我们需要关注零售销售和生产者价格指数（PPI）等经济数据，这些数据反映了消费者的实际支出情况和通货膨胀压力。 Cooper Howard: 我认为零售销售数据可能预示着消费者支出开始出现裂痕，各个领域都显示出疲软的迹象。这可能意味着经济增长的动力正在减弱，我们需要密切关注未来的数据。 Lizanne Saunders: 我认为通缩的PPI数据可能并非长期趋势，很可能是受到贸易战的影响。虽然关税有所缓和，降低了经济衰退的风险，但我们仍然需要警惕劳动力市场的潜在疲软。 Kevin Gordon: 我认为我们需要关注PPI中与个人消费支出（PCE）相关的部分，这可以帮助我们更好地了解消费者的支出情况。四月份的PCE数据可能相对疲软，这可能会对市场产生一定的影响。

Deep Dive

Chapters
On Thursday, May 15th, defensive sectors dominated the market following the release of soft U.S. data that led to a decline in Treasury yields. Despite a steady jobs market, concerns about potential job losses and tariffs weighed on consumer sentiment. Lower-than-expected retail sales and a drop in the producer price index (PPI) further contributed to the shift.
  • Defensive sectors took control after soft U.S. data caused Treasury yields to drop.
  • University of Michigan's preliminary May consumer sentiment is expected to slightly drop to 55.
  • April's job market showed decent employment gains and stable jobless claims, but surveys reveal worries about job losses.
  • April retail sales rose only 0.1%, below expectations, and PPI fell 0.5%, contrary to analysts' predictions.

Shownotes Transcript

Investors brace for consumer sentiment data and options expiration after Treasury yields fell on weak PPI and retail sales yesterday. More retail earnings come next week.

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