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cover of episode Stocks Slip on Tariffs Ahead of CPI

Stocks Slip on Tariffs Ahead of CPI

2025/3/12
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Schwab Market Update Audio

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Keith Lansford: 我是凯斯·兰斯福德,这是3月12日星期三施瓦布对市场的初步观察。投资者正在权衡经济衰退和关税担忧,周三上午将公布2月份的消费者物价指数(CPI)报告,这将为通胀提供新的视角。特朗普总统上周末关于潜在经济衰退风险的言论导致周一股票大幅下跌,周二的关税公告最初也引发了相当果断的下跌,但在当天稍晚些时候,主要股指收复了一些失地。包括特斯拉和英伟达在内的大型科技公司收复了一些失地,纳斯达克综合指数一度上涨超过1%,尽管随后回吐了涨幅。甲骨文公司第三季度业绩不及预期,股价下跌约3%。Adobe公司将于周四发布财报,可能会提供一些关于人工智能需求的线索。在过去几周里,投资者看到亚特兰大联储的GDP Now追踪器跌入负值区域,城市经济意外指数自9月以来首次转为负值,ISM制造业PMI显示支付价格上涨,同时就业和新订单减少。在通胀方面,分析师预计2月份的CPI环比上涨0.3%,略低于1月份的0.5%的涨幅。2月份汽油价格下跌,这可能会有所帮助。不包括食品和能源价格的核心CPI也上涨了0.3%,低于1月份的0.4%。按年计算,分析师预计2月份的CPI同比上涨2.9%,低于1月份的3%。核心CPI预计上涨3.2%,低于1月份的3.3%。这些微小的改善仍然使得价格涨幅远高于美联储2%的目标。美联储的利率设定委员会也将于下周再次召开会议,并将发布其更新的通胀预测。这将是自12月以来的首次,当时核心CPI预计今年将上涨2.5%。虽然现在还处于年初,但核心CPI距离年底达到这一水平还有很长的路要走。截至周二晚些时候,根据芝商所美联储观察工具,投资者预计美联储在会议上维持利率不变的概率为97%。投资者越来越认为5月份利率也将维持不变,尽管降息四分之一点的几率约为40%。最后,国会正在努力避免政府资金在本周末到期。该计划将把资金延长至9月30日,支出水平为2024财年。众议院准备在周二晚上对该措施进行投票。然后将移交参议院。主要股指在周二震荡交投后收盘涨跌不一,投资者正在消化来自华盛顿的所有新闻。政府积极的贸易行动和降息预期减弱,削弱了投资者今年早些时候买入低点的部分理由。周二标普500指数所有板块均下跌,工业板块跌幅最大。道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克指数均收低。标普500指数盘中一度跌入回调区域,即较近期高点下跌10%,但最终收盘高于该水平。只有以小型股为主的罗素2000指数上涨。债券收益率上升,比特币上涨近6%。从技术角度来看,标普500指数本周首次跌破200日移动均线,这是自2023年末以来的首次,这是一个重要的举动,因为这条趋势线长期以来一直是市场的支撑位。标普500指数今年迄今已下跌4.8%。周四上午8点30分将公布2月份的生产者物价指数(PPI)报告。分析师预计,标题和核心读数将上涨0.3%。1月份核心PPI上涨0.3%被认为是积极的通胀信号,因为许多影响美联储青睐的个人消费支出(PCE)价格报告的因素看起来都很温和。商品价格上涨0.6%,主要原因是燃料价格上涨,但服务价格增速从12月份的0.5%放缓至0.3%。投资者可能会关注这种改善是否在2月份持续。上次服务业的大部分涨幅来自旅行住宿服务,因此问题在于这是否是昙花一现。投资者周二还获得了劳动力市场的最新数据,就业空缺和劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)显示,1月份职位空缺增加至774万,超过了彭博社调查的分析师预期的760万。这一数据也可能让担心经济衰退的投资者略感宽慰。施瓦布的董事兼高级投资策略师凯文·戈登表示,1月份的职位空缺数据相当强劲。 Kevin Gordon: 1月份的职位空缺数据相当强劲。

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Welcome to the Schwab Market Update podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead. I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Wednesday, March 12th. Investors juggling recession and tariff concerns get a fresh look at inflation Wednesday morning with the release of the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, report for February at 8.30 a.m. ET.

The report, which analysts expect to show a slight moderation in price gains last month, comes a day after President Trump announced he was doubling import tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50%.

His comments about potential recession risks over the weekend led to a sharp drop in stocks Monday, and Tuesday's tariff announcement initially triggered another fairly decisive move lower before the major stock indexes regained some of their footing later in the session. Major tech players, including Tesla and Nvidia, recovered some lost ground, at one point lifting the Nasdaq composite more than 1% higher, though it later gave up those gains.

Oracle was down about 3% after its third quarter results fell short of expectations. Adobe reports Thursday potentially offering some clues about demand for artificial intelligence.

In the past couple of weeks, investors have watched the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now tracker drop into negative territory, the City Economic Surprise Index turn negative for the first time since September, and the ISM manufacturing PMI show higher prices paid, accompanied by lower employment and new orders.

On the inflation front, analysts expect headline CPI to have risen 0.3% in February from the month before, slowing slightly from January's 0.5% increase. Gasoline prices fell in February, which could help on that score. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, has also seen rising 0.3% down from January's 0.4% reading.

On an annual basis, analysts expect CPI to have risen 2.9 percent in February from the same month last year. That would be down from a 3 percent increase in January. Core CPI is expected to have risen 3.2 percent, down from January's 3.3 percent increase. These minor improvements still leave price gains well above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target.

The Federal Reserve's Rate Setting Committee also meets again next week and will release its own updated inflation projections. Those will be the first since December, when core CPI was seen rising 2.5% this year. It's still very early in the year, but core has a long way to go to reach that level by the end of the year.

As of late Tuesday, investors were pricing in a 97% probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at the meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Investors increasingly look like they expect rates to remain on hold in May as well, though odds of a quarter-point cut were at roughly 40%.

Finally, Congress was working on a proposal to avoid an expiry of government funding this weekend. The plan would extend funding through September 30th at fiscal 2024 spending levels. The House was preparing to vote on the measure Tuesday night. It would then move to the Senate.

The major stock indexes ended mixed after a volatile session Tuesday as investors digested all the news out of Washington. The administration's aggressive trade moves and the receding expectations for a rate cut have undercut some of the rationale investors relied on earlier this year when they bought dips. All of the S&P 500 sectors were lower Tuesday, with industrials taking the biggest hit.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all ended lower. The S&P 500 briefly fell into correction territory, meaning a drop of 10% from a recent peak on an intraday basis, but ended above that level. Only the small-cap-focused Russell 2000 posted gains. Bond yields were up, and Bitcoin gained nearly 6%.

On a technical basis, the S&P 500 index fell below its 200-day moving average this week for the first time since late 2023, a significant move because that trend line had long represented support in the market. The S&P 500 is down 4.8% so far this year.

Thursday brings the Producer Price Index, or PPI, report for February at 8.30 a.m. ET. Analysts expect the headline and core readings to have risen 0.3%. January's 0.3% rise in core PPI was considered a positive inflation signal, as many of the elements that filter through to the Federal Reserve's favored personal consumption expenditure, or PCE, prices report look benign.

Goods costs rose 0.6% mainly due to fuel, but growth in services prices slowed to 0.3% from 0.5% in December. Investors may be looking to see if that improvement continued in February. Most of the rise in services last time came from traveler accommodation services, so the question is whether that was a one-time bump.

Investors also got an update on the labor market Tuesday, with a job openings and labor turnover survey or JOLTS showing that job openings climbed to 7.74 million in January, surpassing the expected 7.6 million analysts polled by Bloomberg were expecting. This data may have also provided a bit of relief to investors worried about recession. Pretty solid job openings data for January, said Kevin Gordon, director and senior investment strategist at Schwab.

The S&P 500 index fell about 43 points Tuesday or 0.76% to 5,572.07. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 478 points or 1.14% to 41,433.48. And the Nasdaq Composite lost 32 points or 0.18% to 17,436.10.

The 10-year Treasury note yield gained 7 basis points to 4.283%. This has been the Schwab Market Update podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash market update or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow.

For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.