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cover of episode Tariff Day Dawns with Investors Hoping for Clarity

Tariff Day Dawns with Investors Hoping for Clarity

2025/4/2
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Schwab Market Update Audio
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C
Colin Martin
无可用信息。
K
Keith Lansford
M
Marchin
Topics
Keith Lansford: 白宫将于下午3点发布关税公告，这可能会对市场产生重大影响。关税公告并不意味着立即执行，但它能使关税情况更加清晰，并可能缓解投资者对不确定性的担忧。疲软的美国数据，例如2月份职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（JOLTS）下降，以及10年期国债收益率跌至今年最低水平，都表明经济数据表现不佳。2月份职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（JOLTS）显示，零售业职位空缺大幅下降，这可能表明消费者支出存在担忧。ISM制造业PMI跌破50，表明经济扩张放缓，同时价格上涨指标创下新高，这可能导致滞胀担忧加剧。ADP 3月份就业报告将公布私营部门就业增长数据，该数据与政府就业数据关联性较弱；预计3月份非农就业人数将增加13万，失业率维持在4.1%。今天的关税公告可能会解答一些问题，例如关税的具体高度、影响的国家、关税是否统一以及谈判时间等。主要股指在关税公告发布前波动，科技股表现相对较好；特斯拉等“七大巨头”股价出现反弹。特斯拉第一季度股价下跌超过35%，分析师预计其交付量约为36万辆；标普500指数技术支撑位在5521点附近。标普500指数连续上涨两天，但仍低于200日移动均线；如果跌破5521点，可能进一步测试5400点附近的支撑位。可选消费品、通信服务和信息技术板块领涨，医疗保健板块表现最弱，这与强生公司面临的诉讼有关。根据CME FedWatch工具，5月份FOMC会议降息的概率为18%，6月份为76%；2025年三次降息的概率已超过70%。标普500指数上涨0.38%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.03%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.87%。 Colin Martin: ISM制造业PMI数据显示经济活动萎缩，但价格上涨，这表明市场更关注增长预期而非通胀预期。 Marchin: JOLTS报告显示劳动力市场正在降温，而非崩溃；非农就业人数仍在增长，但增速比疫情后几年有所放缓。

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The podcast discusses the highly anticipated 3 p.m. ET tariff announcement and its potential impact on the market. While it might offer some clarity on trade barriers, it won't eliminate all uncertainty. Investors are closely watching the market's reaction in the final hour of trading and futures prices.
  • 3 p.m. ET tariff announcement
  • potential for global trade war
  • uncertainty in the market

Shownotes Transcript

Today's 3 p.m. tariff announcement could provide more clarity around proposed trade barriers but won't necessarily end all uncertainty. ADP March jobs data is due before the open.

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