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cover of episode Tech-Driven Rally Persists After Mixed Jobs Data

Tech-Driven Rally Persists After Mixed Jobs Data

2024/12/6
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Schwab Market Update Audio
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Colette O'Claire
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Colette O'Claire: 本周科技股持续领涨，尽管就业报告显示数据喜忧参半，但市场普遍预期美联储将在12月降息。科技股的强劲表现掩盖了其他板块的疲软，标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均上涨，但道琼斯工业平均指数下跌。本周市场情绪总体乐观，部分原因是强劲的美国经济、友好的商业环境、年底的季节性因素以及基金经理可能进行的年底冲业绩行为。就业报告显示11月新增就业岗位22.7万，高于预期，但失业率上升，劳动参与率下降，家庭调查显示10月就业岗位减少，这些都表明经济存在一些疲软迹象。制造业就业岗位增加，小时工资增长也高于预期。10年期国债收益率下降至6周低点。市场关注点转向大型股，一些板块估值过高，经济数据略显疲软。可选消费品板块领涨，防御性板块下跌，显示市场风险偏好上升。能源股表现最差，WTI原油价格跌至三周低点。一些公司因业绩超出预期或其他新闻而股价上涨，例如Ulta Beauty和Lululemon Athletica，而UnitedHealth Group因其首席执行官被杀害而股价下跌。下周将公布一些科技公司的业绩报告，包括Broadcom和Oracle。标普500指数的相对强弱指标(RSI)触及70，市场处于“熔断”状态，但涨势似乎并不过度。如果债券收益率反弹，可能会导致市场整合。制造业就业岗位增长，医疗保健和休闲娱乐行业就业岗位也有所增加。工资增长可能部分反映了制造业就业岗位的增加，但年增长率保持不变，美联储主席鲍威尔认为工资增长并未导致持续通胀。下周将公布11月的消费者物价指数(CPI)和生产者物价指数(PPI)，这些数据可能影响美联储的决策。市场预计美联储将在12月17日至18日的会议上降息25个基点。 Nathan Peterson: 强劲的美国经济、友好的商业环境、年底的季节性因素以及基金经理可能进行的年底冲业绩行为，共同造成了当前市场看涨的背景。市场目前处于“熔断”状态，但涨势似乎并不过度。 Colin Martin: 美联储的预期更多地受到失业率上升和家庭调查疲软的影响，而不是工资上涨。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did tech stocks lead the market this week?

Tech stocks led due to a jobs report that raised hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut, boosting investor sentiment. Their large market capitalizations also masked underlying softness in other sectors.

What factors are contributing to the bullish sentiment on Wall Street?

A strong U.S. economy, a business-friendly administration, bullish seasonality, and potential year-end performance chasing by money managers are driving the bullish sentiment.

What was the key data from the November jobs report?

The report showed U.S. jobs growth of 227,000, above the estimate of 218,000, with hourly earnings growing 0.4% monthly. However, unemployment rose to 4.2% and labor force participation fell.

How did the major indexes perform at the end of the week?

The S&P 500 rose 0.25% to 6,090.27, ending the week up 0.96%. The Dow fell 0.28% to 44,642.52, down 0.60%. The Nasdaq added 0.81% to 19,859.77, up 3.34%.

What sectors performed well during the week?

Consumer discretionary led, driven by hopes of strong consumer demand due to a robust U.S. economy and potential tax cuts. Defensive sectors like utilities and real estate underperformed.

Why did energy stocks underperform?

Energy stocks fell as WTI crude oil closed at $67.16 per barrel, a three-week low, following OPEC's decision not to hike output, which was interpreted as a sign of weak demand.

What were the key earnings highlights this week?

Ulta Beauty and Lululemon Athletica both beat earnings expectations and raised full-year outlooks, despite slower demand. Hewlett Packard Enterprise also rallied on strong server revenue growth.

What is the market's expectation for the Fed's December meeting?

Traders see an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut and a 15% chance of no move, based on the CME FedWatch tool.

Chapters
Technology stocks led the market rally this week, despite a mixed jobs report and weakness in other sectors. The strong performance of tech masked underlying softness in the market, with seven of eleven S&P sectors experiencing losses. Positive economic indicators and investor sentiment contributed to the overall bullish market mood.
  • Tech stocks led market gains despite mixed jobs data.
  • Seven of eleven S&P sectors declined.
  • Positive investor sentiment driven by economic strength and potential policy changes.

Shownotes Transcript

Two major indexes climbed, and the S&P 500 posted new record highs after the jobs report raised rate cut hopes. Tech led, but most sectors fell. The SPX is up three straight weeks.

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