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cover of episode Trade at Center Stage but CPI, Walmart also Loom

Trade at Center Stage but CPI, Walmart also Loom

2025/5/12
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Schwab Market Update Audio

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A
Alex Coffey
C
Colin Martin
无可用信息。
K
Keith Lansford
N
Nathan Peterson
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Keith Lansford: 本期节目主要关注美中贸易谈判、即将公布的CPI数据以及沃尔玛的财报。这些因素将共同影响市场走势。 本周市场焦点在于美中贸易谈判,白宫表示有多项贸易协议即将达成,但投资者似乎开始感到疲惫。上周,美英达成了一项小规模贸易协议,但投资者可能希望看到更大的协议才能继续买入。 即将公布的重要的经济数据包括4月份的CPI和零售额数据,以及沃尔玛的财报,这些数据将揭示关税对市场的影响。 分析师下调了2025年标普500指数的盈利预期,这反映了市场对关税影响的担忧。 10年期国债收益率小幅下降,但仍接近两周高点。长期收益率高于短期收益率,这反映了对通货膨胀的担忧以及良好的美国经济数据。 市场预计美联储今年将降息两次,第一次降息可能在9月份进行。 美联储主席鲍威尔将于本周四发表讲话,届时将公布4月份的CPI和零售额数据。 如果CPI数据强劲而零售额数据疲软,则滞胀可能成为本周的热门话题,但这可能夸大了实际的经济环境。 中国4月份对美国的出口下降了21%,但整体出口增长了8.1%。 约90%的标普500公司公布了第一季度业绩,其中78%超过了分析师的预期,但尚不清楚这其中有多少反映了关税迫在眉睫导致的需求提前释放。 市场目前处于震荡状态,成交量低于平均水平。 标普500指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数均结束了为期两周的涨势。 Nathan Peterson: 市场的主要驱动力仍然是贸易。如果贸易谈判没有进展,甚至恶化,股票市场可能会出现获利回吐。 Alex Coffey: 零售商的财报将提供一个近距离观察145%的中国进口商品关税如何影响近期供需的视角。投资者应该关注公司如何应对这种不确定性。 Colin Martin: 潜在的贸易协议和美联储的耐心态度可能是上周美国国债收益率上升的关键驱动因素。如果美联储降息幅度低于市场预期,收益率仍有小幅上涨的空间。

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Stocks treaded gingerly as traders focus on talks between the U.S. and China and await Tuesday's CPI and Thursday's results from Walmart. Fed Chairman Powell speaks Thursday.

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