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cover of episode Weekend Trade Talks Loom and Yields Raise Concerns

Weekend Trade Talks Loom and Yields Raise Concerns

2025/5/9
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Schwab Market Update Audio

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Colette O'Clare
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Colette O'Clare: 本周投资者关注周末即将举行的中美贸易谈判以及美国国债收益率的上升。30年期国债拍卖需求疲软导致收益率上升,这引发了人们对海外买家可能撤出美国资产的担忧。美英达成的贸易协议降低了两国之间的关税,但也保留了美国对英国商品的10%关税。美国计划取消拜登时代对许多国家实施的芯片出口限制,这被视为积极的贸易消息。 下周将公布重要的经济数据,包括4月份的消费者物价指数、生产者物价指数和零售额数据。这些数据将有助于进一步了解通货膨胀和经济增长的情况。此外,初请失业金人数下降,符合近期趋势,但续请失业金人数一直在稳步上升。一季度生产力下降,单位劳动成本飙升,但市场对此报告的重视程度不高。下周将是零售业非正式财报季的开始,包括沃尔玛和阿里巴巴等公司。 周四,大多数板块上涨,但医疗保健板块因对特朗普降低药品成本计划的担忧而落后。防御性板块也表现疲软,这表明投资者目前更倾向于风险偏好。技术面来看,市场再次出现疲软收盘,主要指数在最后几分钟大幅回落,这可能暗示投资者不愿追高。 Kathy Jones: 贸易政策缺乏清晰度是阻止美联储放松政策的主要障碍。关税可能会导致物价上涨,美联储担心暂时的通货膨胀上升会变得更加持久。由于关税的规模和范围仍在变化,美联储无法估计其对经济的影响。预计美联储将在今年晚些时候降息,最早可能在9月份会议上开始。我们预计将降息两次,但如果经济陷入衰退,降息幅度可能会更大。 Cooper Howard: 一季度生产力下降是近三年来的首次下降,但衡量生产力很困难,环比数据可能存在扭曲。市场对此报告的重视程度不高。

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**As trade talks loom this weekend between the U.S. and China, investors have their eyes on rising U.S. yields following a weak auction yesterday that raised demand concerns. **

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