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cover of episode With Tariffs in Place, Jobs Focus Returns

With Tariffs in Place, Jobs Focus Returns

2025/4/4
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Schwab Market Update Audio
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Colette O'Clare
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Colette O'Clare: 我分析了三月非农就业报告的预期数据，预计就业增长将放缓，但仍保持在稳健的水平。然而，关税政策对未来就业市场的影响仍存在不确定性。此外，美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话备受关注，投资者将密切关注其对贸易战及经济增长和利率路径的看法。目前市场预期美联储将在今年进行多次降息。 特朗普总统实施的关税政策导致华尔街股市大幅下跌，市场恐慌情绪加剧，衰退风险上升。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数均出现大幅下跌，部分科技公司受影响尤为严重，这与他们复杂的全球供应链和此前为应对贸易战而进行的调整有关。 尽管如此，一些避险资产如日元和美国国债受到投资者追捧。能源板块受创严重，这与欧佩克增产的决定有关，而非关税政策。国债收益率下降，表明投资者更担忧经济衰退而非通胀。 下周即将开始的财报季，特别是大型银行的财报，将为我们提供更多关于经济对新贸易政策反应的信息。此外，我分析了最新的失业数据和ISM服务业PMI数据，这些数据都显示出经济增长放缓的迹象。 Lizanne Saunders: 我认为，鉴于关税政策对企业利润率的挤压，熊市是可能的，许多公司可能需要调整其2025年的收益预期。美国资产也可能面临来自寻求其他市场的投资者的压力。 在当前的市场环境下，投资者应该寻找那些拥有稳定利润率、更多国内市场敞口、较低波动性和股息收益稳定性的公司。同时，投资者也应该考虑在美国以外进行多元化投资，以降低风险。 周四市场波动性有所上升，但并未达到极端水平。如果波动性指数VIX超过30点，则可能预示着股市进一步走弱。 Kathy Jones: 我认为，投资者仍然将美国国债视为当前市场动荡中的可靠避风港。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter discusses the March nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show continued job growth despite recent tariffs. The main concern is how the job market will fare in the coming months as businesses adapt to the new trade policies.
  • March jobs growth expected at 130,000
  • Unemployment expected to remain at 4.1%
  • Concerns about the job market's future performance in light of tariffs

Shownotes Transcript

Today's March nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show growth of 130,000 and unemployment of 4.1%. The market is still grappling with Trump's tariffs after yesterday's sell-off.

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