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cover of episode Reading the labor market tea leaves

Reading the labor market tea leaves

2025/7/2
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Marketplace

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
B
Benny Ashburn
B
Brian Colton
B
Brian Duncan
G
George Perks
J
Jennifer Lee
J
John Diamond
J
Jonas Golterman
J
Joseph Gagneau
K
Kai Risdahl
L
Laura Veldkamp
M
MTL Hunter
M
Martha Gimbel
M
Menzi Chen
N
Nick Tremper
S
Scott Ladner
20多年专业交易和投资经验,现任Horizon Investments投资管理部门负责人和投资委员会主席。
Topics
Laura Veldkamp: 作为哥伦比亚大学的经济学教授,我认为关税导致商品价格上涨,会直接影响就业市场。当人们因关税而减少商品购买时,销售人员、运输人员和清洁工等岗位的需求都会减少。在经济放缓的情况下,雇主不需要那么多工人,因此他们不必提供高工资来留住现有员工。这最终会影响服务业的成本,因为服务业的主要投入是劳动力。 Menzi Chen: 作为威斯康星大学的经济学教授,我观察到工资增长缓慢对服务成本有很大影响,因为服务业的主要投入是劳动力。然而,员工可能会要求更高的工资来帮助他们支付关税成本,这可能导致服务业工资上涨。此外,劳动力成本的增加将导致商品价格上涨,例如新鲜水果和蔬菜,因为劳动力供应减少。 George Perks: 作为Bespoke Investment Group的宏观策略师,我认为劳动力需求正在改善,失业救济金初请人数没有显示出劳动力需求迅速下降的迹象。此外,劳动力市场面临劳动力供应减少的问题,这与人口老龄化和政府驱逐工人及阻止移民有关。因此,劳动力需求触底并可能开始加速,而劳动力供应持续萎缩,这应该为工资增长创造一个非常积极的背景。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The slowdown in consumer spending, partly due to tariffs and the cost of labor, is impacting the job market. Economists offer varying perspectives on the situation, with some suggesting that slower wage growth will impact the service sector, while others highlight countervailing factors like increased demand for labor and dwindling supply.
  • Slowdown in consumer spending is impacting economic growth.
  • Tariffs affect the price of goods, while the cost of labor impacts services.
  • Slower wage growth affects the cost of services.
  • Increased demand for labor and dwindling labor supply are countervailing factors.

Shownotes Transcript

Consumer spending sputtered in May, likely thanks to tariffs and related uncertainty. Not only does that give us a clue as to where GDP is headed, it could also help us predict the labor market's next move. Later in this episode: Slowed hiring could have a silver lining (depending on your perspective), the U.S. dollar is down 10% so far this year, and we visit a pop-up brewery focused on racial equity.

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