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cover of episode As good as its gets on the trade news front

As good as its gets on the trade news front

2025/5/12
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Saxo Market Call
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J
John J. Hardy
O
Ole Hansen
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John J. Hardy: 我认为市场对中美贸易谈判的积极反应可能有些过度。虽然双方达成了90天的停火协议，并降低了关税，但这可能只是节奏上的变化，而非方向上的根本转变。我们需要警惕这是否只是短暂的喘息，长期来看，贸易战可能不会完全消失。从美英贸易协议中可以看出，美国正致力于加强经济安全方面的合作，实际上就是针对中国。此外，原产地规则和对敏感商品的配额与追踪，也显示出美国对贸易的严格管控。因此，我认为现在就断定贸易战结束还为时过早，市场可能需要重新评估局势。 Ole Hansen: 我认为市场对贸易消息的反应有些过度，现在应该谨慎对待。虽然地缘政治紧张局势有所缓和，降低了对避险资产的需求，但对冲基金一直在抛售黄金，这表明他们预计市场将出现更深度的调整。另一方面，能源行业受益于供应和需求的双重提振，表现强劲。总的来说，我认为市场需要更多的数据来判断贸易局势的真正走向。

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Shownotes Transcript

Equity markets are shooting for the moon and the US dollar is rallying after the US-China trade talks at the weekend resulted in a 90-day ceasefire and temporary huge tariff reductions. We look at the implications across markets and ask whether this is as good as it can possibly get for now on the trade front, as this is a change of speed, not of direction. On today's pod are Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.