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cover of episode Bearish conviction rising again. Can the Fed cut as early as July?

Bearish conviction rising again. Can the Fed cut as early as July?

2025/6/12
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Saxo Market Call
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John J. Hardy
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John J. Hardy: 我正在尝试转为看跌立场，尤其是在美国股市方面。市场对关税问题再次感到恐慌，这可能表明市场对关税头条新闻的反应不再那么麻木。关税收入将对通货膨胀和经济增长产生有意义的影响。我对美国经济的走向感到担忧，需要更多的数据点来确认。特朗普的声明需要中国的签署才能最终确定。中国在工业部件方面具有强大的影响力。疲软的CPI数据使外汇市场紧张，美元遭到抛售。市场对美联储7月降息的风险定价不足。如果出现一系列疲软的失业救济申请报告和其他确认数据，美联储最早可能在7月采取行动。美联储可能会考虑为潜在的行动敞开大门，同时不表明对劳动力市场和数据依赖的过度关注。美国政策利率相对于当前的通胀轨迹过高。收益率曲线是关注的重点，前端下降是主要部分。CPI数据和特朗普关于关税的言论是导致美元下跌的关键因素。美元的走势并不广泛，主要集中在G3国家。如果风险情绪转弱，英镑可能会受到冲击。如果英国央行考虑比之前预期更多地降息，那么对英国利率的关注可能会崩溃。道琼斯运输指数表现不佳，这让我对美国股市有点悲观。美元的走势需要保持，风险情绪在短期内看起来有点不稳定。关键的数据点将是美国的失业救济申请人数。

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Today, can't help but turn more bearish on equities as the US trade policy issue finally adds some more bite and as the broader concern on the trajectory of the US economy may be picking up here. The US dollar is certainly headed south versus the euro again, and USDJPY is making a show of selling off - can the move stick this time? Thoughts on the Fed possibly cutting earlier than expected, Oracle blowout earnings and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

 

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