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cover of episode Crude oil and USDJPY whiplash. Tesla fans ignore shaky autonomous driving debut.

Crude oil and USDJPY whiplash. Tesla fans ignore shaky autonomous driving debut.

2025/6/24
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Saxo Market Call
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J
John J. Hardy
O
Ole Hansen
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Ole Hansen: 大家好，我是Ole Hansen。过去两周，原油价格中包含的超过10美元的风险溢价在短短几个小时内就消失了。我认为，为了维持这种风险溢价，市场需要不断出现坏消息或令人担忧的消息，因为市场的基本面实际上指向的是低于70美元的价格，而不是高于80美元。伊朗对美国军事基地的袭击，虽然事先已得到协调，但市场将其解读为缓和局势的信号。随后，特朗普宣布伊朗和以色列已达成停火协议，这进一步推动了油价的下跌。目前，油价已跌回最近的交易区间，我预计可能会稳定在68.5美元以下。在经历了13美元的暴跌后，我认为投机性买盘可能会更加犹豫。此前的大部分买盘都是空头回补，进一步上涨需要新的资金进入市场。没有人愿意购买可能瞬间蒸发的10%的溢价。

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Today we discuss how Iran's staged response to US bombings mostly crushed the geopolitical tension premium in crude oil and gave a big boost to global risk sentiment, which also enjoyed another Fed member waxing dovish, sending US yields lower. Also, Tesla couldn't have timed its autonomous driving service debut better, as the stock soared despite shaky performance in at least one report. This and a discussion of gold and more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, with Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.

John's FX Update) from today.