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cover of episode FOMC pumps USD. Stablecoin developments churn two superstar stocks.

FOMC pumps USD. Stablecoin developments churn two superstar stocks.

2025/6/19
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Saxo Market Call
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John J. Hardy
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John J. Hardy: 昨天联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议显示出对滞胀风险的担忧加剧，增长预测被下调，失业率预测被上调，核心个人消费支出(PCE)也有所提高。美联储内部对政策走向存在分歧，一部分人认为今年不会降息，另一部分人认为会降息两次或更多。由于市场对美元的负面情绪过于强烈，美元走强可能是空头回补所致。虽然澳元兑新西兰元上涨，但黄金和白银近期表现不佳。此外，美国房地产市场可能面临越来越多的问题，如果经济增长放缓，这将加剧市场情绪和消费方面的担忧。最后，稳定币的使用正在增加，Coinbase正在考虑使用USDC进行支付和作为抵押品，这可能对传统支付公司构成威胁。我个人认为，这些因素综合起来，预示着市场可能面临一些挑战，需要密切关注。

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The June 19th, 2025 FOMC meeting showed minor adjustments, with lowered concern levels and a more relaxed outlook. However, staff economic projections revealed increasing concerns about stagflation, with lowered growth projections and raised unemployment rate and core PCE projections. The policy rate projections remained largely unchanged, but there was a division in projections about future policy rate cuts.
  • Minor adjustments in the monetary policy statement
  • Increased concerns of stagflation
  • Growth projections lowered
  • Unemployment rate projections raised
  • Core PCE raised for 2025-2027
  • Policy rate projections mostly unchanged
  • Bifurcation in Fed's policy projections: some predict no change, others predict two or more cuts

Shownotes Transcript

Today - a look at the FOMC meeting, which saw the Fed smelling stronger stagflationary risks, while the US dollar rose across the board on the failure of the Fed to wax more dovish perhaps. Elsewhere, we look at the latest interesting batch of US data and the latest on Iran-Israel. In stocks, we discuss Coinbase leading the gainers among S&P 500 stocks on the rise in stablecoin uses, which also drove two superstar stocks to post the worst declines of all S&P 500 members yesterday. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

 

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