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Geopolitics derails risk sentiment, but for how long?
2025/6/13
Saxo Market Call
J
John J. Hardy
O
Ole Hansen
John J. Hardy: 昨晚以色列袭击伊朗，这让市场感到震惊。我希望了解袭击的具体情况，以及这对实际供应风险意味着什么。原油市场出现了剧烈的波动，并蔓延到其他市场。我们需要关注伊朗可能采取的行动，以及特朗普政府对此事件的反应。我个人认为，虽然地缘政治风险通常会消退，但这次事件的严重性不容忽视，特别是考虑到它可能对全球经济和能源价格产生的影响。我将密切关注局势的发展，并评估其对投资组合的潜在影响。
Ole Hansen: 昨晚原油价格飙升了约13%，这是自2022年俄罗斯袭击乌克兰以来最大的单日涨幅。美国此前已向其驻巴格达大使馆工作人员发出警告，这表明袭击可能早有预兆。我认为，这次袭击与伊朗核谈判有关，伊朗减少了核观察员的访问权限，这可能触发了以色列的反应。目前我们仍在等待伊朗的回应，关键在于他们目前能集结多大的力量。我认为，地缘政治风险引发的油价飙升通常会消退，关键在于伊朗是否会扩大冲突范围。只要霍尔木兹海峡的石油安全通道不中断，供应风险就有限。但我认为，在局势可能恶化的情况下，没有人愿意出售。
Deep Dive
This chapter analyzes the impact of Israel's attacks on Iran on global markets, particularly crude oil. It discusses the initial price spike, the signals leading up to the attack, and the potential for further escalation. The chapter also considers the overall geopolitical climate and the likelihood of sustained conflict.
- Initial crude oil price spiked around 13%, biggest one-day increase since the Russia-Ukraine war.
- Attacks targeted nuclear production facilities and key personnel.
- Uncertainty remains regarding Iran's response and the potential for further escalation.
- Appetite for conflict in the Middle East is currently low.
- Disruption to oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz is a key risk factor.
Shownotes Transcript