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cover of episode Here we go again with tariffs and US fiscal focus

Here we go again with tariffs and US fiscal focus

2025/5/19
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Saxo Market Call
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John J. Hardy
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John J. Hardy: 特朗普税收法案的推进，预示着美国未来将面临多年的巨额财政赤字。这不仅加剧了美国国债市场的压力，也使得市场更加关注官方干预的可能性及其形式与规模。如果美国国债收益率持续走高，我预计会看到某种财政应对措施。然而，美国的财政状况和贸易政策可能会削弱其他国家持有美国国债的意愿，导致资金从美国资产流出，使得美元面临下行压力。目前，美元指数（Dali in）正处于两难境地，既受到美国国债收益率上升的支持，又受到美国整体经济压力的制约。因此，在看到美国政府采取明确的干预措施之前，美元指数可能会持续挣扎。 John J. Hardy: 特朗普政府的贸易政策也给市场带来了不确定性。特朗普政府可能对不愿真诚谈判的国家恢复“解放日关税”，这增加了市场的恐慌情绪。特朗普甚至希望公司承担关税成本，而不是提高价格，这暗示着未来可能会采取价格管制等措施。如果公司将关税转嫁给消费者，特朗普可能会得到民众的支持。当前，美国股市下跌，而欧洲股市相对稳定，表明市场可能正在进行美国与世界其他地区的交易。总而言之，美国的财政赤字和特朗普政府的贸易政策是当前影响市场走向的关键因素，投资者需要密切关注。

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Chapters
This chapter analyzes the factors contributing to the instability in the US Treasury market, focusing on the impact of Trump's tax cut bill, Moody's downgrade of US Treasuries, and the potential for official intervention. It discusses the critical yield levels and potential responses from the government.
  • Moody's downgraded US Treasuries from AAA rating.
  • Trump's tax cut bill cleared a key committee hurdle, leading to larger US deficits.
  • US Treasury yields reaching critical levels raise concerns about market stability.
  • Potential government intervention is discussed, including methods and market reactions.

Shownotes Transcript

Today, a breakdown of why US markets are stumbling so badly at the start of the week after some renewed menace on the tariff front from the Trump administration at the weekend and as US treasury yields are under pressure from Trump's big tax cut and spending bill clearing a hurdle in the House. Today's pod with Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

 

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