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cover of episode Is everyone (including us) too bearish on US Treasuries?

Is everyone (including us) too bearish on US Treasuries?

2025/5/23
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John J. Hardy: 我认为目前市场对美国国债的普遍悲观情绪可能过度，这反而可能为国债的反弹创造机会。虽然我也长期看跌债券，但做空债券的成本很高。如果美国国债市场出现轧空，我认为会对其他市场产生重大影响，尤其是外汇市场。美元的走势可能会受到影响，而日本政府债券市场也可能受益于美国国债收益率的下降。我特别关注美国国债市场，因为它可能成为市场新动力的来源。如果国债收益率大幅下降，我认为黄金和美元兑日元可能会受到影响。尽管我长期看跌美元的观点没有改变，但我对市场走势持开放态度，并密切关注美国国债市场可能带来的冲击。

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Today, we ask whether too many have gotten too bearish on US treasuries, the one asset nearly everyone agrees no on should own. If so, US treasuries could be in for quite a painful squeeze ahead of a long US holiday weekend that would inevitably have interesting repercussions across markets, not least for the US dollar and gold. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

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