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cover of episode Japan beating US to the punch in addressing long bond yields

Japan beating US to the punch in addressing long bond yields

2025/5/27
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John J. Hardy: 日本财务省可能通过调整国债发行来控制收益率曲线,这导致日元贬值和美元走强。我认为这是一种金融抑制的初步迹象,类似于美国未来可能采取的措施。目前,这有助于稳定市场情绪,并促使风险偏好回升。尽管我不看好美国国债的长期前景,但市场此前过度做空,因此出现回调。我关注美元兑日元的关键阻力位,如果突破146,可能预示着看跌趋势的结束。同时,我也关注欧元兑美元和澳元兑美元的走势,它们都需要新的催化剂来打破当前的区间。我认为各国央行操纵收益率的举动应该对黄金价格形成支撑,但目前债券市场的稳定导致黄金价格下跌,这可能预示着近期美元走弱的主题将面临挑战。

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Today a look at Japanese Government Bond yields getting crushed overnight on signs that the MoF is planning to tweak its issuance to avoid further pressure on long yields. This inspired a JPY sell-off and the US dollar has backed up across the board as well. Elsewhere, risk appetite is in fine form, if we have some longer term concerns on heavy retail participation. Today's pod hosted by Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy

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