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cover of episode Melt up scenario versus perilous concentration

Melt up scenario versus perilous concentration

2025/7/1
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Saxo Market Call
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J
John J. Hardy
O
Ole Hansen
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John J. Hardy: 我对当前这种规模的冒险感到不安，虽然很难找到明显的分歧，但还是有一些迹象表明这次反弹可能很脆弱。市场非常集中，正是这种高度集中的市场，加上前十大股票和MAG7的出色表现，推动我们达到了现在的水平。VIX指数略有上升，即使在股市创新高的情况下也是如此。标普500指数创新高，但市场广度却是史上最差的。目前的情况就是这样，我们只能静观其变，看看会发生什么。我认为目前确实有一些支持所谓的“融涨”情景的因素，人工智能投资周期持续推动顶级股票的利润和活动，而且美联储极有可能采取宽松政策。如果特朗普如愿以偿，他抨击鲍威尔，说利率应该在0.25%到1.75%之间。进一步冒险的必要条件是所谓的“大漂亮法案”获得通过。特斯拉的股价下跌，因为特朗普和马斯克之间发生了激烈的争论。马斯克表示，如果这项法案通过，他将组建一个新的政党，名为“美国党”，以摆脱民主党和共和党的单一政党。特朗普说，如果不是因为电动汽车的强制规定，马斯克早就关门回南非老家了。摩根大通估计特斯拉第二季度的交付量可能会同比下降19%。Palantir的估值非常离谱，接近100倍的销售额。Palantir上周遭遇了巨大的空头回补，除了某种重新指数化之外，没有任何消息。这表明被动指数化非常重要，资金流动才是最重要的。资金流动是唯一重要的，那么什么会扰乱资金流动，什么会吓跑系统性和主动型资金？显然，仍然存在系统性参与者的压力，他们在解放日关税崩溃期间做空，然后在反弹过程中平仓，但并没有充分做多。这可能会加剧所谓的“融涨”情景，尽管所有这些冒险行为让我非常紧张。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the current market rally's fragility, focusing on market concentration, low breadth, and the potential for a melt-up scenario. It also touches upon the impact of the AI investment cycle, the Fed's easy monetary policy, and the political climate.
  • Concentrated market with top 10 stocks and MAGA7 driving performance
  • Worst breadth ever for a major new high in the S&P 500
  • Potential for a melt-up scenario due to AI investment cycle and easy Fed
  • Political uncertainty surrounding the Big Beautiful Bill and its impact on Tesla

Shownotes Transcript

Today we discuss whether the massive concentration in the US equity market is a bug or a feature, noting that market breadth is the worst ever at a major new market high by at least one measure. Elsewhere, we break down the commodity performance for the first half of the year, talk gold's comeback from key support, the lay of the land in currencies, Apple's rally, Tesla dump late yesterday on a new Musk-Trump exchange and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.