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cover of episode Ripping gold reversal. Underappreciated Meta risks?

Ripping gold reversal. Underappreciated Meta risks?

2025/5/16
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John J. Hardy
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John J. Hardy: 我认为目前地缘政治局势复杂且动态。美国在中东的行动表明其影响力的扩张,并试图将该地区与中国隔离。与此同时,欧洲在国防和贸易方面面临挑战,德国试图增强其军事力量。与美国的贸易谈判进展缓慢,日本和欧盟都不愿轻易让步。特朗普政府还试图通过关税和贸易协议来影响印度和苹果公司的政策。这些发展交织在一起,影响着全球经济和政治格局,需要密切关注。

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This chapter analyzes the geopolitical landscape, focusing on Trump's Middle East tour and its implications for global alliances, particularly concerning the relationships between the US, China, and the EU. It also discusses the implications for trade deals and defense spending.
  • Trump's Middle East tour signals a strengthening of US influence in the region, potentially alienating China.
  • The EU's lack of power in energy, defense, AI, and global finance is highlighted as a weakness.
  • Germany plans to significantly increase defense spending, aiming for the most powerful military within the EU.
  • Trade negotiations with the EU and Japan are proving more challenging than anticipated due to domestic interests.
  • Trump's push for Apple to shift production to the US rather than India is noted.

Shownotes Transcript

Today, a blitz of news, from geopolitics on latest trade deal developments and more, to specific company news, particularly United Health and Meta, which faces possible major business risks that are perhaps underappreciated. Today's pod also covers the latest macro data, the big bounce in gold, the outlook for USD and JPY, huge tectonic issues for the US treasury market and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Michael McNair post on X) mentioned on the pod.

John's latest FX Update). 

 

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