We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode The TACO trade engages once again

The TACO trade engages once again

2025/5/26
logo of podcast Saxo Market Call

Saxo Market Call
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
J
John J. Hardy
Topics
John J. Hardy: 我观察到特朗普政府在贸易政策上常常采取一种策略，即先以强硬姿态出现，威胁加征关税，以此来向贸易伙伴施压，试图在谈判中获得更有利的条件。然而，每当市场因此出现剧烈波动，甚至面临下行风险时，特朗普往往会选择退让，推迟或取消关税措施，从而缓解市场的紧张情绪。这种“特朗普总是退缩”的模式，我称之为“TACO trade”。 我认为这种策略虽然短期内可以稳定市场，但长期来看，却可能助长特朗普政府的冒险行为。每当市场恢复平静，特朗普就会再次采取大胆的政策行动，发起新一轮的贸易摩擦，使得市场不断面临新的不确定性。此外，特朗普政府还试图通过对特定公司，如苹果公司，施加关税压力，来促使制造业回流美国，但这可能会对相关公司的经营带来负面影响。 目前，美国国债市场也面临一些问题，参议院对预算议案中的赤字和债务上限扩大表示不满，这可能会导致预算议案被修改。尽管如此，我认为预算议案的最终版本不太可能对美国的大规模赤字产生重大影响。总的来说，特朗普政府的贸易政策和财政政策都给市场带来了不确定性，投资者需要密切关注这些政策的变化，并做好相应的风险管理。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

It's a new week and we have the latest example of what an FT columnist has called the TACO trade engaging once again: Trump Always Chickens Out. In this case, it was Trump's announcement late yesterday to delay the threat to slap 50% tariffs on the EU already to July 9 rather than June 1 (which he threatened on Friday). The US is out on holiday today, but we have plenty to discuss on geopolitics, further Trump tariff threats and executive orders on nuclear, moves in FX and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

John's article (first in four part series) on trading and investing in the Trump 2.0 era).

 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here).

Please reach out to us at [email protected]) for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo).