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cover of episode Trump going soft on tariffs versus the direction of travel

Trump going soft on tariffs versus the direction of travel

2025/4/23
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John J. Hardy
O
Ole Hansen
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专注于电动车和能源领域的播客主持人和内容创作者。
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主持人: 我认为特朗普政府内部人士提前获知了中国关税下降的消息，并利用了这一信息。特朗普关于不炒掉鲍威尔和降低中国关税的声明导致市场风险偏好上升，黄金价格下跌。 Ole Hansen: 特朗普不会解雇鲍威尔是黄金价格近期大幅上涨后回调的主要原因之一。黄金短期回调，但长期来看，其走势并未发生根本性改变。黄金白银比价高于100，可能预示着非贵金属将出现新的上涨动力。 John J. Hardy: 我们应该关注市场长期趋势，而非短期波动。即使特朗普缓和了关税政策，也要关注美中经济脱钩的长期趋势。美中贸易关系的缓和是重要的，但不能忽视美中经济脱钩的长期趋势以及由此可能造成的损害。特朗普缓和关税政策可能是受到了沃尔玛等零售商的压力。美元走强与风险偏好上升并不完全兼容，这与美国在货币领域的例外地位的丧失有关。谷歌的广告收入可能受到ChatGPT等竞争对手的影响。IBM的估值可能过高，除非其云计算、人工智能和硬件业务有重大突破。美元兑日元汇率处于关键技术位，可能进一步下跌。原油价格上涨是市场整体复苏的一部分，但未来仍存在需求下降的风险。欧洲制造业PMI略有改善，但服务业PMI下降，这出乎意料。美国财政部可能采取措施来降低长期国债收益率，但其有效性存疑。美国长期国债收益率不可能大幅上升，否则政府将采取干预措施。尽管特朗普对华政策有所缓和，但美中脱钩的长期趋势仍在继续。Edward Chancellor和Russell Napier对资本管制和美元走势的观点很有见地。 supporting_evidences Ole Hansen: 'But we were somewhat lukewarm about that latest move, John, yesterday. Basically, I think my main reason for not lifting target once again, but saying, well, hang on, maybe... Beyond the 3,500. Yeah, exactly, beyond 3,500. Maybe that we are just due for some consolation. Simply from the fact that Trump would not sack – in the belief that Trump would not sack Powell for two reasons. First of all, someone clearly tells him this is going to cause mayhem across markets. We don't want this with all the troubles we have right now. And secondly, nice to keep him on board and you have a scapegoat. If he doesn't cut rates, then obviously we can always blame him later on when the economy starts to weaken. So –' John J. Hardy: 'And I think you'll know us here, we keep our eye on the direction of travel. Of course, this was an important break in the clouds, and we were at very high levels of pessimism. You know, all the usual contrarian lights were flashing today. So that the active crowd, pretty much everybody that was going to sell among active investors had sold. And if we were going to get further selling, which would have been possible, it would have been because the tariff threat remained and we actually moved into the sort of implications of what was becoming a U.S.-China mutual embargo situation.'

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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4jHvS8G)    -

Today we look at the impact of Trump's big softening on tariffs against China as well as his declaration he has no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell, asking whether this is a major reversal across the board or merely a big slow-down in the "direction of travel" toward a US-China economic decoupling. We talk gold, silver, crude oil, equities, currencies and key US earnings as everything has been roiled once again by Trump's latest rhetoric. On today's pod are Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

 

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