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cover of episode US and China are slipping into an economic war

US and China are slipping into an economic war

2025/4/11
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Saxo Market Call
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
J
Jakob Falkencrone
J
John J. Hardy
O
Ole Hansen
Topics
John J. Hardy: 特朗普政府的关税政策给市场带来巨大冲击，随后宣布的90天暂停虽然给全球经济带来一线生机，但也意味着中美之间实际上已经处于贸易战状态。关税政策的不确定性以及美国政府内部的意见分歧加剧了市场波动。关税的实施不仅仅是简单的关税，而是相当于对中国的贸易禁运，其影响深远且广泛，波及全球经济。美国财政市场的紧张局势也令人担忧，可能需要政府干预。黄金作为避险资产，其价格上涨反映了投资者对全球经济的不确定性。 Jakob Falkencrone: 特朗普政府在关税政策上的反复无常导致市场极度不确定，企业难以做出合理的投资和生产计划。供应链中断将导致生产停滞，对经济造成严重影响。即使股市出现反弹，也不意味着风险已经消除，因为企业的基本面仍然面临挑战，例如对中国的依赖。 Ole Hansen: 原油价格下跌是由于全球经济增长放缓预期，这可能导致美国石油产量下降。虽然原油价格下跌对美国石油生产的影响不会立即显现，但长期来看将会产生负面影响。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the market's reaction to the US imposing tariffs on its trading partners, excluding China. It discusses the 90-day delay on tariffs, the uncertainty caused by this decision, and the potential impacts on the global economy, including a possible recession. The discussion also touches upon the impact on inflation and deflation.
  • 90-day delay of tariffs on major trading partners (excluding China)
  • Significant market volatility and uncertainty
  • Potential for global recession
  • Impact on inflation and deflation debated
  • Global container shipping down 49%, US imports down 64%

Shownotes Transcript

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4jdtaZ6)    -

After Trump's 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs, we have a short window of time to find out how the global geopolitical order will shape up from here as US trading partners scramble to make deals with the US on trade. Will they be willing to sign on to the US' anti-China policy as we now have what amounts to a US-China economic war until or unless until or unless we suddenly see a move to the negotiating table. On today's pod are Jacob Falkencrone on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy on macro and hosting.

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