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cover of episode USD breaking down as we are all waiting for Trump's "big beautiful bill".

USD breaking down as we are all waiting for Trump's "big beautiful bill".

2025/5/21
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Saxo Market Call
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John J. Hardy
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John J. Hardy: 我认为市场都在等待所谓的“大而漂亮的法案”通过。如果这个法案的主要内容得以保留，它将保证美国的财政赤字持续存在。因此，美国国债市场是当前最关键的市场。我感觉美国国债市场就像一只准备随时扑向猎物的猫，一旦法案通过，可能会出现大规模的债券抛售。我们需要密切关注10年期国债4.5%和30年期国债5%的关键水平。如果收益率的上升是由于市场对美国财政状况缺乏信任，那么这就像新兴市场风格的上涨。我认为美国国债或美联储可能需要进行干预，以控制收益率的上限。我们正在密切关注这些，我认为这是接下来非常关键的一步。这可能是所有这些事情的开端，尤其是在阵亡将士纪念日这个法案可能通过的截止日期临近之际。

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Today, a look at the USD breaking down and bitcoin trying to break up to new all time highs as the US treasury market looks like a cat waiting to pounce as it awaits the passage of President Trump's "Big Beautiful" tax cut and spending bill that is set to cement huge US deficits for years to come. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Head of Global Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

 

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