cover of episode Betting coins on the conclave

Betting coins on the conclave

2025/5/6
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Marketplace Morning Report

AI Deep Dive Transcript
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A
Amy Scott
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David Brancaccio
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Elizabeth Troval
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Father Tom Daley
J
Jennifer Pak
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Nova Safo
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David Brancaccio: OpenAI, 人工智能领域的巨头,在其向盈利公司转型的过程中遭遇了重大阻碍。最初,OpenAI 作为非营利组织成立,旨在将人工智能技术用于造福人类。然而,巨额的投资需求迫使OpenAI寻求外部投资,而投资者则希望获得未来利润的股份并参与公司治理。这一转型计划引发了包括Elon Musk在内的早期投资者的诉讼。最终,OpenAI 决定将其盈利部门设立为一家公益公司子公司,以平衡盈利和社会责任。 Nova Safo: 德国保守党领袖Friedrich Merz在议会第一轮投票中未能当选总理,这在二战后尚属首次,对Merz本人以及德国政坛都造成了不小的冲击。 Elizabeth Troval: 全球范围内,人们对下一任教皇的人选进行了巨额的赌博。随着科技发展和信息传播速度的加快,教皇选举的赌博规模显著扩大。虽然美国体育博彩公司不允许此类赌博,但许多美国人通过Kalshi等金融交易平台参与其中。教皇选举的赌博市场在一定程度上能够预测选举结果,但圣灵在选举中扮演的角色是无法预测的因素。 Father Tom Daley: 教皇选举中,圣灵扮演着至关重要的角色,这是任何赌博市场都无法预测的因素。枢机主教们肩负着选举上帝希望成为继任者的责任。 Jennifer Pak: 中国政府为了应对不断下降的生育率,出台了一系列鼓励生育的政策,包括提供现金补贴和延长产假。然而,许多中国女性由于经济和健康原因不愿生育二胎,并且担心生育后会失去工作。一些雇主会在招聘过程中询问女性的年龄、婚姻状况和生育情况,这在一定程度上加剧了女性生育的顾虑。即使在公共部门,一些女性也因为养育孩子而选择辞职。政府提供的生育补贴不足以弥补养育孩子的巨大成本。 Amy Scott: 华尔街曾经一度对气候变化投资充满热情,但随后遭遇了挫折。保守势力和石油产业的反对是导致气候变化投资失败的重要因素。

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Artificial intelligence for humanity, for profit, or something else. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. One of the biggest firms in artificial intelligence has hit a roadblock in its campaign to become a for-profit company. OpenAI, maker of ChatGPT, has hit the hurdle. Marketplace's Nova Safo explains. OpenAI's nonprofit board is a vestige of when it was created a decade ago to build artificial intelligence to, quote, benefit humanity.

But OpenEI has needed tens of billions of dollars in investments to get there, and the investors who footed the bill have wanted to secure a stake in future profits and to have more of a say in OpenEI's governance.

So in December, CEO Sam Altman said the chat GPT maker would convert itself into a for-profit corporation with its original non-profit board becoming a shareholder. That prompted a lawsuit from Elon Musk, who was among OpenAI's early backers and its current rival with his own AI company. Now a new plan. The non-profit board will remain in charge of

The part of OpenEI that takes in investor money and runs ChatGPT is to become a subsidiary structured as a public benefit corporation. Those are certified to have a mission to do a public good while also making a profit for shareholders.

I'm Novosafo for Marketplace. The key stock index in Frankfurt, Germany, is down 1.1 percent right now after a political thunderbolt today from Berlin. The leader of the conservative party there, Friedrich Merz, was not elected the leader of the country in a first round of voting by members of parliament. Merz needed to cobble together a coalition, but no. It's a first for Germany since the Second World War and an embarrassment for Merz, but he could still become chancellor in subsequent rounds.

The bond market is steady here now as the Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow to consider what to do about tariffs that can be both inflationary and recessionary at the same time. Our coverage will be in the Marketplace Morning podcast. S&P futures are down six-tenths of a percent now.

133 Catholic cardinals are expected in the Sistine Chapel tomorrow to start choosing the next pope, and people around the world are placing millions of dollars in bets over who they think will get the two-thirds majority required to be the Catholic Church's next leader. Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval has more on the papal betting markets. People have been betting on who becomes the next pope for centuries, says John Holden with Indiana University. But...

We've seen a much bigger expansion of betting on the Pope globally as technology has gotten better and allowed word to spread quickly. Though people bets are not allowed in U.S. sportsbooks, many Americans are on Kalshi, a financial exchange and prediction market. Cardinal Pietro Parolin is the frontrunner there, which Victor Matheson with College of the Holy Cross says could be a good predictor.

Betting markets and prediction markets actually do a pretty good job at estimating what's going to happen. Though there's one thing markets can't account for, says Father Tom Daley with the St. Charles Borromeo Seminary. A really big factor that no one talks about because it's hard to talk about and you certainly can't bet on is the role that the Holy Spirit plays. Because, he says, cardinals are meant to elect the person God wants to be the successor.

I'm Elizabeth Troval for Marketplace. There's even a kind of fantasy football thing getting lots of global interest. If you go to the site, it reads, who will be the next pontiff? It goes on in Italian, take up the challenge to bring out the Vatican expert within you.

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You could say, just my luck. But you should say, like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. And we'll help get you back in business. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. One thing in common with U.S. and China, slowing birth rates. That may stress the environment less, but that's fewer people working and paying taxes to pay for populations getting older.

China's offering cash and more parental leave to encourage people to have more kids there. Marketplace's China correspondent Jennifer Pak has been spending time with families in southern China's Dongguan City. It's a hot afternoon at a public square in Dongguan. This toddler and his mom, Mo Guilan, are taking a stroll. I won't consider a second child for health and financial reasons.

China used to have a one-child policy. Now up to three are allowed. But Mo Guilan says even with one child, her family's already taken a financial hit. There was nobody to help me take care of the baby after maternity leave, so I had to quit my factory job. A lot of women worry about being able to keep their jobs after giving birth.

Human Resources Executive Ai-Ring Yang says when she gave birth back in 2011, she was nervous about taking the three-month maternity leave that she was entitled to. Once I took that long maternity leave, my work was given to another person, and I worried that I could be replaced.

To make sure she didn't miss out on too much, she would go to the office during her maternity leave. Now she's in a senior HR role and a proud mom of a teenager. After having one child, I didn't want more. It's like mission accomplished. Oh!

Because employers bear the cost of benefits like maternity leave, women can be discriminated against in the hiring process, says mom of one Peng Lu. At interviews, employers would ask my age, if I'm married yet, and if I have any children. China's government officially bans such lines of questioning, but it still happens. Mom, I'm here!

Luckily, Peng Lu landed a job in the public sector, where women's rights are better protected. But even with that, she decided to quit after having her son and move back closer to her family so she wouldn't have to pay for expensive child care. Now she's planning a second child. Some cities are offering thousands of dollars in subsidies to anyone having three children.

Does that tempt Peng Lu? Probably not, she says. Ex-factory worker Mo Guilan feels the same. I won't give birth to a child just for a few thousand dollars. Raising kids, she says, costs way more than that.

In Dongguan City, I'm Jennifer Pak for Marketplace. With the Federal Reserve starting its two-day meeting on interest rates today concluding tomorrow, listen to the half-hour edition of Marketplace with my colleague Kai Risdahl on many public radio stations, of course, later today, or streamable from our homepage, marketplace.org. In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio with the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.

Can we invest our way out of the climate crisis? Five years ago, it seemed like Wall Street was working on it until a backlash upended everything. So there's a lot of alignment between the dark money right and the oil industry on this effort. I'm Amy Scott, host of How We Survive, a podcast from Marketplace. In this season, we investigate the rise, fall, and reincarnation of climate-conscious investing.

Listen to How We Survive wherever you get your podcasts.