cover of episode Global growth set for decline, as ballooning government debts take hold

Global growth set for decline, as ballooning government debts take hold

2025/6/3
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Alvaro Pereira
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Faisal Islam
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Katie Silver
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Alvaro Pereira: 作为OECD的首席经济学家，我认为全球经济正面临增长放缓的挑战。我们下调了几乎所有国家的经济增长预期，这主要是由于贸易紧张局势和关税壁垒的增加。虽然我们预测全球经济仍将保持韧性，但一些国家，特别是那些高度依赖贸易的国家，受到的影响更为严重。我认为避免进一步的贸易分裂至关重要，各国应该优先考虑重振投资。同时，我们必须关注不断上升的公共债务水平，并采取措施加强财政纪律。过去几十年，全球贸易的扩展极大地促进了经济繁荣和生活水平的提高，因此，各国应该通过对话和贸易协议，共同努力，为人民创造更美好的未来。

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The OECD forecasts a slowdown in global growth to 2.9% this year and next, citing rising trade tensions, sticky inflation, and ballooning government debt as contributing factors. The organization's chief economist, Alvaro Pereira, emphasizes the need to avoid further trade fragmentation and boost investments to revive growth, while also acknowledging the need for fiscal discipline given high debt levels. The OECD's message is a call for international cooperation to foster trade and prosperity.
  • OECD forecasts 2.9% global growth for the next two years
  • Rising trade tensions, inflation, and government debt are hindering economic growth
  • Recommendation to avoid trade fragmentation and boost investments
  • High debt levels across countries are a major concern

Shownotes Transcript

From the BBC World Service: The global economy is losing steam, according to the OECD, which now forecasts growth to fall to just 2.9% this year and next. The Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development — which represents most of the world’s advanced economies — issued its warning as trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to grow.