"Markets are sort of holding their breath"
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Financial markets are taking war headlines in stride, at least now, two and a half hours before Wall Street's opening bell.

I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. After U.S. bombs targeted Iran's nuclear facilities and amid concerns about possible responses by Iran, stock bond and oil markets are in a holding pattern. In previous crises, money has shifted from riskier to safer and into U.S. government bonds. Today, no so far. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond is not higher but slightly lower, pushing the 10-year interest rate up to 4.39%.

Dow futures are little changed, but S&P and Nasdaq futures are up a tenth of a percent, while stocks in London are tracking that pattern. Germany is down three-tenths percent. The key index in China closed up seven-tenths of a percent.

And crude oil up but not wildly, up seven-tenths of one percent, $74.37 a barrel in New York, among concerns that Iran has the capability to shut or disrupt shipping, including crude oil, through that narrow stretch of water between Oman and Iran. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman has more.

On Sunday, Iran's parliament reportedly passed a non-binding resolution to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which an estimated one-quarter of seaborne oil and one-fifth of liquefied natural gas is shipped to global markets. Mostly that oil and gas flows from Iran and the Gulf states to Asia, especially China. Meaning, says Cornell economist Ishwar Prasad, such an escalation by Iran...

It would certainly turn all of the Middle East, and it would also turn some of their allies like China against them. Overall, it would certainly put a damper on the world economy because that would inevitably mean an increase in the price of oil. Analysts estimate cutting off these Middle East oil supplies could send global crude prices up well above $100 a barrel. Oil has spiked about 12% since Israel started its bombing campaign against Iran on June 13th.

Prasad is in China now and says the concern there is palpable. Last few hours, actually, I've had meetings with a variety of officials in Beijing, and there is a sense of foreboding for this economy, which is sort of just stabilizing at the moment. The impact here would be more muted, as the U.S. is now a net exporter of energy. I'm Mitchell Hartman for Marketplace.

And it's not only the Middle East shaping financial decisions today. Let's consult economist Julia Coronado, founder of Macro Policy Perspectives. Good morning to you, Julia. Good morning.

I've been doing this for decades. When I look at the market screens this morning, they don't seem to reflect the bold headlines that are hitting other screens. How do you puzzle out that paradox? Well, I think there's two things going on. One is we just don't know what happens next. So are we in a drawn out conflict? Is this a one off?

We just don't know. So markets are sort of holding their breath. They're in a holding pattern. There's small moves in sort of the direction you'd expect. And then secondly, oil prices have risen a lot.

over the last month in anticipation as the conflict was escalating, as Israel was rattling its sabers. So the market on the oil front has already moved a lot. I'm just doing the math here. Yes, oil is up not even 1% this morning. But if you go back a month, it is up more than 21% since late May. So if you have a slightly longer term perspective, some of this has been priced in.

That's right. Some of it has been priced in, and so we could go further for sure, but we have come a long way already. And it's not just oil getting through the Strait of Hormuz. It's not, more widely, Iran's possible reactions to these U.S. strikes. There's a lot else going on that leaves a lot of uncertainty. You would normally think that

Well, we've got a mix of a lot of things, some of which are negative, like a trade war that could really harm business and eat profit margins. But you've got an AI revolution going on that's future-oriented.

fueling a lot of optimism on that front. You've got immigration policy that could slow growth. You've got a big fiscal package that could cut taxes for some businesses and individuals. So there's a lot of things going on, none of which are crystal clear or have we seen their impact yet in the data. Economist Julia Coronado is also a professor at the University of Texas, Austin. Thank you very much. My pleasure. Thank you.

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For now, both the House and Senate versions of the big tax and spending legislation include a ban on regulation of artificial intelligence technology by states. It would override more than 100 local laws already on the books.

Some Republicans and Democrats are fighting this, as is the entertainment industry. Marketplace's Megan McCarty Carino has that. In the age of AI, voice actors like Tim Friedlander don't just have to worry about dodging a cold or acing their next audition. Now there are voice clones.

For voice actors who are very prolific, who have a massive amount of content out there, the chances of them hearing something that sounds like them is pretty high and has happened. Friedlander, who founded the National Association of Voice Actors, says these clones exist in a legal gray area. There's no comprehensive federal law that prohibits the unauthorized use of someone's voice, image, or likeness for commercial purposes, let alone an AI copy.

But some states have taken the lead, like Tennessee, with its Ensuring Likeness Voice and Image Security Act, a.k.a. the Elvis Act, passed last year. Dominic Roda is an intellectual property attorney in Nashville. It made very clear that one component of an individual's right of publicity is not only their actual voice, but a simulation of the voice of the individual.

At least nine other states have enacted or proposed similar protections. California, for example, restricts using AI to replicate someone's voice or image after death. A federal law to ban unauthorized digital clones failed to pass last year, but has been reintroduced. I'm Megan McCarty Carino for Marketplace.

Back to the Middle East. Most airlines are giving no indication for how long they plan to cancel flights to, for instance, Qatar and Dubai. This includes U.S. flag carriers American, United, Delta and Air France and more. British Airways was set to resume Doha and Dubai runs today. Reuters is reporting an increase in electronic jamming of GPS location signals in the skies over the Persian Gulf that could affect air traffic.

In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio, Marketplace Morning Report from APM, American Public Media. This old house has been America's most trusted source for all things DIY and home improvement for decades. And now we're on the radio and on demand. I think you're breaking into this wall regardless. I was hoping you wouldn't say that. I need to go and get some whiskey, I think. I would get the whiskey for sure. Subscribe to This Old House Radio Hour from LAist Studios, wherever you get your podcasts.