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cover of episode Oil prices in flux as tensions rise in the Middle East

Oil prices in flux as tensions rise in the Middle East

2025/6/16
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Marketplace Morning Report

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Adrian Murray
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Patrick Quayle
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Robin Mills: 作为Qumar Energy的首席执行官,我认为目前海湾地区正面临严重的危机和战争,该地区每天出口2000万桶石油,占世界供应量的五分之一。多年来,人们一直担心冲突会中断石油供应。令人惊讶的是,市场对此的反应可能还不够大。首要的担忧是伊朗自身的石油出口可能因破坏或更严厉的制裁而中断。目前,伊朗的石油几乎全部出口到中国,每天约150万桶。如果中国无法从伊朗获得石油,就需要从其他地方寻找替代来源。更广泛的担忧是,伊朗最终可能通过袭击其他地方的石油基础设施或封锁航运来报复以色列的袭击,从而影响海湾地区每天2000万桶的石油出口。

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So the price of oil is in flux as fears ease over a wider war in the Middle East. There's been days of missile strikes between Israel and Iran. Crude jumped by as much as 13% on Friday after Israel hit Iranian military and nuclear sites, but prices have since fallen back. Robert Mills is the chief executive of Kumar Energy, an energy consultancy based in Dubai, and was formerly an executive at the energy giant Shell.

Well, I think, you know, if anything, the surprise is perhaps that the move wasn't bigger. You've got, you know, serious crisis and indeed war in the Gulf, exporting 20 million barrels per day of oil, a fifth of the world's supplies. And there's been concerns, you know, for many years that a conflict could interrupt that. Concern number one is that Iran's own oil exports are cut off or interrupted in some way, you know, whether by damage or by intensified sanctions.

Iran's exports now go almost entirely to China, about one and a half million barrels per day. But obviously, if China wasn't getting that oil anymore, it would need to get it from somewhere else. So that's a kind of immediate concern. And then the wider concern is, OK, will Iran ultimately retaliate for these Israeli attacks by striking oil infrastructure elsewhere or blocking shipping, perhaps, or some other actions that would affect some part of that 20 million barrels per day that's coming out of the Gulf?

That was Robin Mills, Chief Executive of Qumar Energy. And that's not the end of the story. Israel's attacks on Iran's nuclear sites will be discussed at a special meeting today of the International Atomic Energy Agency. That's the UN's nuclear watchdog.

Meanwhile, leaders of the G7 group of developed economies are meeting in Alberta, Canada, for a three-day summit that's likely to be dominated by the Israel-Iran conflict. But as the BBC's Gary O'Donoghue reports, getting a united front will be challenging. A lot of the countries here don't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. That's something they can agree on, but there is...

Gary O'Donoghue reporting. Now, let's to the numbers.

Let's check in on those energy prices. Brent crude is down half a percent at nearly $74. The price of natural gas is up 3%. And it's been a tough Monday for the carmaker Renault. Its shares have dropped nearly 6% and reports its CEO, Luca Di Meo, is leaving to head up Gucci Owning Caring. Meanwhile, the boss of Nissan told Japanese press that the firm now plans to sell its entire 5% stake in Renault.

Now, remember when President Donald Trump floated the idea of buying Greenland? Well, that didn't happen, but America has landed in the Arctic. The inaugural direct flight from the US to Greenland touched down at the weekend. The new connection is a significant milestone for the country, which recently opened up a new international airport in its capital, Nuuk. The BBC's Adrian Murray is at the airport. Hello. Hello there. So you were...

there when it first arrived. That's right. In fact, you just caught me at the airport again. Just before I take off myself, I was here as the first flight landed from the USA. It's operated by United and the plane flew from the metropolis of New York to the very tiny capital, Nuuk, a route that now only takes four hours and previously could have taken a whole day or even longer.

This is really a historical milestone for Greenland. Until now, the only routes into Greenland were from Denmark or Iceland. And so if you wanted to head west to North America, you would have had to first fly east to

And Adrian, are they seeing any demand for this route?

But United Vice President Patrick Quayle told me that that's not the case here and that tickets for the first flights are down in record time. We're not seeing any hesitation on this. This route is booking, you know, exceeding our expectations and we see a lot of demand for it. And again, it captures people's imagination about coming to just an absolutely beautiful country. So this new airport, it's significant, isn't it?

Yes, that's right. I mean, it opened up last November here in the capital. And despite this being where most of Greenland's population lives, before this, you could only fly into Newt with these small propeller planes. And first, you had to fly to a remote airstrip that was built by the American military during World War II and then catch an onward connection. Now, this is the

First of three new airports, which are expected to make Greenland much more accessible and help boost business. Jens Lorsen, the CEO of Greenland Airports, tells me. The whole idea of doing the new airports is to grow the tourism industry and making that a sector in the Greenlandic economy. There, definitely, you are tapping into a very, very large catchment area in North America with this route. On top of that, we will also now have options in order to export fish and seafood directly to the U.S.,

So is Greenland expecting a big surge in visitors? Is it ready? And also, is it going to be expensive? Absolutely.

Well, yes, United is not the only flight coming into Nuke. SAS is launching new routes and there are larger planes also coming from Iceland. In fact, the number of passengers flying into Greenland is set to double this summer compared to last. And last year already saw a record number of visitors. Now, there are some people who are a little bit nervous about the large number of tourists that might come here. But also, there are a lot of would-be entrepreneurs who have started up

guiding businesses, for example, and see this as an opportunity. And there are also initiatives to try and spread out the Tauracept to different places and through the season. But we'll know how it all goes only at the end of the summer. Okay, well, Adrienne, I don't want you to miss your flight. Adrienne Murray, thanks so much for joining us in Marketplace. Thank you so much. Take care. There you go. Could be your new vacation destination. I'm Leanna Byrne with the Marketplace Morning Report from the BBC World Service.

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