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cover of episode The Big Beautiful Bill scrapes through

The Big Beautiful Bill scrapes through

2025/7/4
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Marketplace Morning Report

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A
Alan Hatton and Darren Lawler
C
Chris Beesham
E
Erin Delmore
J
Jessica O'Sullivan
S
Stephanie Hayes
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Erin Delmore: 作为BBC的记者,我认为这个所谓的“美丽法案”虽然勉强在国会通过,但它对美国经济的影响是复杂的。一方面,它提高了美国的债务上限,暂时避免了潜在的违约风险,这对市场来说无疑是个好消息。然而,从长远来看,这个法案预计将导致美国在未来十年内增加高达3.4万亿美元的债务,这无疑加剧了市场对美国财政可持续性的担忧。此外,虽然企业盈利和股市预计将因此受益,但与此同时,美国的税收收入预计将大幅下降,这使得政府的财政状况更加捉襟见肘。总的来说,我认为这个法案在短期内可能对市场起到一定的提振作用,但其长期影响仍存在很大的不确定性,需要密切关注。 Chris Beesham: 作为IG的首席市场分析师,我主要关注英国的经济形势。我认为英国政府目前面临着严峻的挑战。如果政府不能认真推进福利改革,那么摆在他们面前的选择将非常有限,要么增税,要么增加支出。然而,无论哪种选择都可能对英国经济造成不利影响。增税可能会抑制经济增长,而增加支出则可能加剧英国的债务问题。从目前的情况来看,英国经济和政府的财政状况都难以承受更高的支出。因此,我认为英国政府需要谨慎权衡各种政策选择,以避免债务状况进一步恶化。本周金融市场的反应已经清楚地表明,投资者对英国经济的信心正在下降。

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Washington's giant bill passes with big cuts, but what's the cost? Hello, this is the Marketplace Morning Report and we're live from the BBC World Service. I'm Leanna Byrne. Good morning. The so-called Big Beautiful Bill, nearly a thousand pages long, has squeaked through Congress by just four votes. It boosts military and border spending, extends Trump-era tax cuts, but also increases the cost of living.

but makes deep cuts to health care and food aid. So what does that mean for the U.S. economy? Here's the BBC's Erin Delmore. This bill contains one unambiguous piece of good news for the markets. That's because it has a provision that increases America's infamous debt ceiling, the law which places a limit on how much money the government can borrow.

It had been the case that the Treasury was due to crash through the debt ceiling in August or September. Now that's been pushed back by a couple of years. And any threat of an imminent default, however unlikely, has gone away. But it's estimated that it will cause America's long-term debt to grow by $3.4 trillion over the next decade. That is bad news for the U.S. bond market. Yields rose on Thursday after the bill's passage, and when yields rise, prices drop.

U.S. treasuries have seen demand decline as fiscal concerns rise. Tax revenue in the U.S. is estimated to fall by $4.5 trillion over the next decade, while corporate earnings and stocks are projected to boom. Stocks rose on Thursday, and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit new record highs, buoyed also by strong new jobs data.

Erin Delmore there. Meanwhile, President Trump signed an order to charge foreign visitors more to enter U.S. national parks. The move aims to raise funds for crumbling infrastructure and new attractions. About a third of park visitors are from overseas.

To the UK now. Saturday marks a year in office for the government, but it comes at the end of a week that they'd probably rather forget. After struggling to pass a key welfare reform bill and after the UK's finance minister made an emotional appearance in Parliament, markets wobbled and borrowing costs surged on Wednesday. Chris Beesham is Chief Market Analyst at IG and says it all points to jittery sentiment.

Financial markets are beginning to ask if the government is not able to pursue welfare reform in a serious way, as we was tempted to do this week.

then the alternatives remain either tax rises or indeed increases in spending. And certainly there's concerns that the UK economy and certainly the government position can't really endure higher spending and that obviously higher taxes will cause a hit to growth. Things are not great for the UK economy at the moment and certainly for the government's position as well, the debt situation is.

could deteriorate very, very quickly if it's not managed. I think we saw a flash of that this week in financial markets. That was Chris Beesham from IG. Now, let's do the numbers. European stocks are in the red and gold prices have inched up as traders look for a safe haven after President Trump warned that he's sending letters to trading partners to specify what tariffs they might face. He said countries could face duties of up to 70% starting August 1st.

That's actually higher than the rates first voted back in April. Now, it's 10 years since Ireland became the first country in the world to legalise same-sex marriage by popular vote. A decade later, same-sex couples are contributing significantly to the wedding industry in Ireland at a time when overall marriage numbers are falling. A few weeks back, I went to Dublin to speak to couples and vendors about how the wedding industry has changed. So I brought some samples.

When you first get engaged, you're riding high, telling friends, celebrating, showing off your engagement ring. But inevitably, reality hits and you have to start planning the wedding. That's exactly where Alan Hatton and Darren Lawler find themselves now, at their Redbrick home in Dublin's trendy Stoney Batter neighbourhood, discussing invitations with designer Anna O'Byrne. The only thing that we have is the colours.

Alan and Darren say, since they've waited so long to get married, they're happy to spend money on the things that matter to them. It's about very much trying to keep it local, trying to, you know, local economy, local people. When you're only doing this once, when you're only doing this once, these sort of things matter. Just 10 years ago, Alan and Darren couldn't have legally planned this wedding in Ireland. In 2015, Ireland became the first country in the world to pass same-sex marriage by popular vote.

It was a seismic vote, with 62% voting in favour. Ten years later, same-sex couples are contributing significantly to the wedding industry in Ireland, which as a whole is estimated to be worth between $800 million to $2.6 billion to the Irish economy. According to figures from Ireland's Central Statistics Office, same-sex marriages accounted for 3.3% of total marriages annually since 2016. I'm good, how are you?

From a business point of view, it's a category that's in growth. That's Jessica O'Sullivan, head of content at One Fab Day, Ireland's biggest wedding planning website. The opposite sex marriage category has dipped below 20,000 for the first time in a very long time since the height of COVID-19.

But one category that is actually increasing is same-sex marriage. So, you know, a lot of suppliers, venues and even us as a wedding website are targeting that category specifically. She says that the average budget is now around $40,000 and many same-sex couples are willing to spend even more. Now,

One type of wedding venue that is always popular in Ireland is a castle. While these buildings might be steeped in tradition, it doesn't mean they're conservative. Stephanie Hayes from Clontarf Castle remembers the referendum well. There was a very lovely couple and they had booked the wedding for literally a week after the referendum took place.

Taking a little bit of a punt in that, yes, this is going to go through with a yes. Wedding packages at Clontarf Castle range between $100 and $135 per person. These days, at least 10 to 15% of the venue's clients are same-sex couples from both Ireland and overseas.

Ten years on from Ireland's marriage equality referendum, the impact is being felt far beyond the ballot box. The wedding industry has shifted, becoming more inclusive, more diverse and, for some businesses, more lucrative too.

And finally, Legoland Shanghai opens tomorrow featuring a mini replica of the city's iconic waterfront, skyscrapers and all, built entirely from colourful Lego bricks. And that's it from the Marketplace Morning Report from the BBC World Service. I'm Leanna Byrne. Have a great day and thanks so much for listening.

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