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cover of episode What's going on with the GDP reading?

What's going on with the GDP reading?

2025/4/30
logo of podcast Marketplace Morning Report

Marketplace Morning Report

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People
C
Chris Ball
D
David Brancaccio
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James Graham
J
Jo Bateson
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Julia Davis
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Magda Wierszczycka
N
Nancy Marshall-Genzer
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Nova Safo
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Rachel Reeves
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Susan Schmidt
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@Susan Schmidt : 我认为理解此次GDP收缩的关键在于贸易动态。许多人在8月2日关税上调的消息公布后就采取了行动,这在第一季度就有所体现。人们提前购买商品以应对关税导致的价格上涨,这导致进口激增,抵消了出口的积极影响,最终导致GDP数据为负增长(-0.3%)。虽然这显示出人们对经济的担忧,但这并不意味着经济衰退,因为经济衰退需要连续两个季度经济萎缩。 @David Brancaccio : ADP的就业报告显示,就业增长远低于预期,仅为62,000个,这表明企业对经济前景持谨慎态度,招聘意愿下降。企业管理层对经济环境感到担忧,因此在招聘方面更加谨慎,这反映了商业界的普遍谨慎态度。即将到来的财报季将会充满挑战,企业高管需要应对关税政策的不确定性和股东对确定性的期望。 @Nova Safo : Stellantis暂停了2025年的业绩指引,原因是特朗普政府实施的一系列关税对汽车制造商造成的影响,以及关税政策的不确定性。Stellantis近40%的车辆来自加拿大和墨西哥进口,因此受到关税影响较大。 @Nancy Marshall-Genzer : 在白宫的压力下,亚马逊放弃了在其产品上显示关税成本的计划。亚马逊声明称,其低价亚马逊Haul商店只是考虑过在部分产品上列出所谓的进口税,但该计划从未获得批准,也不会实施。 @James Graham : 英国政府收紧了针对富人的税收漏洞,导致一些纳税人威胁要离开英国。英国长期存在的“非居民”税收地位允许富人避免对海外资产的纳税,这在2022年引发了争议。政府最初计划废除该地位,但后来放宽了政策,给予非居民四年时间免税转移资金。 @Rachel Reeves : 我一直认为,如果你把英国当成你的家,你就应该在这里纳税。 @Chris Ball : 许多适用此政策的人都是流动的,他们有其他选择。我们看到人们前往中东、迪拜和意大利。美国也正在成为一个有吸引力的选择,因为美国政府对富人持欢迎态度。 @Magda Wierszczycka : 我们需要吸引企业家和公司来英国纳税,但不能因此而劝退富人。 @Julia Davis : 长期以来,我们一直被涓滴效应的理论所蒙蔽,但事实证明,富人的财富并没有惠及所有人。 @Jo Bateson : 新的税收制度对企业家客户很有吸引力,英国仍然是一个不错的居住地。新的税收制度可能会吸引居住在国外的英国人回国。

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I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. There's news this morning that a key measure of the U.S. economy has a negative sign in front of it. Not growth, but a drop of three-tenths of a percent January to March for gross domestic product. Now, some growth was expected, but no, this is the first growthless quarter since pandemic recovery early 2022. Susan Schmidt is portfolio manager at Exchange Capital Resources. Morning.

Good morning. I mean, you have to understand that dynamics of trade to understand this contraction that was recorded through GDP just now, right? A lot of people knew August 2nd, higher tariffs. It was well advertised. So they took action during the first quarter.

Yes. Remember, the GDP is a net number. So we're talking about how much we export and sell outside and offsetting that is how much we buy in. People know that tariffs are coming. There was a big jump in the amount of goods purchased. That's a negative contributor to GDP in this last quarter. That caused the negative number for GDP headline at negative point three percent. It does show that people are nervous about the economy. They're

There is a lot of activity right now, but that's because people are buying in advance of expectations of increased prices due to tariffs. All right. And one quarter of contraction does not make a recession. It takes two. We don't have that yet.

That said, we got an early reading on the jobs picture. It was from the payroll company ADP. And job creation was half what was expected, a meager $62,000. That tells you something. That does tell you something. It tells you that these private companies are hiring much less than expected.

Management teams are nervous. They're not sure what the environment is going to bring. And so they're anxious and nervous about adding on more people. It does point to general cautiousness in terms of the business community on what they're facing for the back half of this year. And we're seeing some of that uncertainty expressed in the downturn in stock prices so far this morning. But we'll have more coming.

CEOs reporting their quarterly profits today, tomorrow and beyond, and they have to dance around this somewhat. They do. And that's a tough walk for CEOs right now. They are trying to explain to the street that they don't have a lot of visibility. Shareholders never like that. They want certainty. The poor CEOs aren't really sure what the environment is that they're going to be working with. And at the same time,

they're announcing earnings. We're also getting a lot of announcements from the administration as to what potential developments there have been with tariffs. It's going to be a very confusing earnings season right now. Listen to what management teams are saying. I think there's going to be a lot of dialogue and discussion on the back and forth. All right. I'm going to go out and look and see if I can actually find a poor CEO, as you put it. But Susan Schmidt is Portfolio Manager at Exchange Capital Resources. Thank you. Thank you.

The parent company of Jeep, Chrysler, Dodge and Ram is among firms to suspend guidance. That's Wall Street speak for companies normally dropping hints about how they would do in the future. Stellantis says it's about the uncertainty of shifting tariff policies. Marketplace's Nova Safo reports.

Stellantis had been expecting a recovery this year after profits plunged more than 60% last year and led to the ouster of its CEO. The company in February predicted growing sales, but that was before the Trump administration issued a series of tariffs that impact automakers on steel, aluminum, vehicles, and auto parts, along with country-specific tariffs. Nearly 40% of the vehicles Stellantis sells in the U.S. are imported, mostly from Canada and Mexico.

The company said it's engaged with policymakers, but the uncertainties around tariffs and how they might change mean it cannot offer a forecast of what's ahead. Stellantis is not alone. General Motors took the same action yesterday, suspending its guidance. And we'll hear from Ford on Monday. I'm Neva Safo for Marketplace.

Following pressure from the White House, Amazon is backed away from a plan to display the cost of tariffs on individual products so consumers could see how much import taxes are adding. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall-Genzer has that. President Trump says he complained to Amazon founder and executive chair Jeff Bezos after Punchbowl News said Amazon would start listing tariff costs next to the total price. Trump told reporters... Jeff Bezos was very nice.

He was terrific. He solved the problem very quickly.

And he did the right thing, and he's a good guy. Amazon issued a statement saying its low-cost Amazon Haul store was just considering the idea of listing what it calls import charges on some products. But, quote, this was never approved and is not going to happen. Haul will take a hit when a tariff exemption for small packages from China ends this Friday. I'm Nancy Marshall-Genzer for Marketplace.

When you study econ, you learn a kind of tango. The more you tax, the more wealthy people adjust or evade. In Britain, there was a long, long-standing arrangement where richer people could avoid taxes on overseas assets than with support from both Labour and Conservatives there. That was reined in, leading some taxpayers to warn they might leave Britain. The BBC's James Graham reports the British government is tossing them a bone.

For years, the UK has had a controversial tax status known as the non-dom. It's short for non-domiciled, which meant you could live in the UK, but your home for tax purposes was overseas. It's a different concept to the US, where citizens are taxed on income wherever it's earned. This has long been an emotive subject in the UK, and there was uproar in 2022 when it emerged that the then Finance Minister's wife, Aksharta Murthy, was one of 74,000 non-doms.

A qualifying resident could pay a fee to nominate another country as their permanent home to avoid UK tax on worldwide income. It was widely seen as an anachronism and both major parties had promised reforms. I have always said that if you make Britain your home, you should pay your taxes here too.

That's the current finance minister, Rachel Reeves, setting out plans to abolish the non-dom status last October. The government said it wanted to address unfairness in the system and raise money for services, but its position did soften. Non-doms now have longer, four years in fact, to bring their money onshore tax-free, and after that period, taxes kick in on worldwide income.

The change came after critics said wealthy people would leave the UK, and one report found numbers had risen, but those figures have been disputed. Chris Ball advises high net worth individuals at Hoxton Wealth. He says clients are looking at countries with more sympathetic tax policies.

I think a lot of people that this applies to are mobile and they have other options. So we're seeing people go to the Middle East, Dubai. We're seeing people look at Italy. And Chris thinks that the US is also becoming an attractive option.

I think this administration is very pro-people with money residing in the US. Our view is that they're trying to make it easier for them to come over and gain residence and gain citizenship. One person who says she'll leave the UK is Magda Wierszczycka, founder of financial services firm Signia.

You need people, entrepreneurs, people setting up companies to come into UK and pay their fair share of tax, but do so in such a manner that does not discourage wealthy people from coming. But Julia Davis, an angel investor and co-founder of a group called Patriotic Millionaires UK, supports the change.

We've been sold quite a long time. What I would say is a fairy story of trickle-down wealth, as in if there are some people that are doing incredibly wealthy in the UK, it's going to be good for everyone. But it hasn't turned out that way. But while some wealthy people might leave, others could be attracted by that four-year tax break, says Jo Bateson, a tax lawyer at Mercer & Hole. The new regime is really attractive for a kind of a typical entrepreneurial client. The UK is still a good place to be.

And Joe says it could also tempt Brits living abroad to move back home.

If I'm a Brit who has gone overseas with work or something, maybe living in America for 10 years, I can now come back to the UK and I can get the first four years under this regime. So while some people will feel they're losing out, it may mean home sweet home for some homesick returnees. In the UK, I'm the BBC's James Graham for Marketplace. Stock futures are down, interest rates are up. With news the US economy stopped growing as measured by GDP...

It's the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media. If there's one thing we know about social media, it's that misinformation is everywhere, especially when it comes to personal finance. Financially Inclined from Marketplace is a podcast you can trust to help you get serious about your money so you can build a life you've always dreamed of.

I'm the host, Janelia Espinal, and each week I ask experts important money questions, like how to negotiate job offers, how to choose a college that you can afford, and how to talk about money with friends and family. Listen to Financially Inclined wherever you get your podcasts.

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