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Who comes next?

2025/6/26
logo of podcast Marketplace Morning Report

Marketplace Morning Report

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
A
Ambra
B
Benjamin Uchert
B
Brian Reeling
D
Daniel Ackerman
D
David Brancaccio
D
Donald Trump
批评CHIPS Act,倡导使用关税而非补贴来促进美国国内芯片制造。
E
Elizabeth Braugh
I
Ian Ralby
J
Jonathan Gruber
J
Joshua Tallis
N
Nancy Marshall-Genzer
T
Tomer Renan
Topics
David Brancaccio: 特朗普总统经常公开批评美联储主席,这种行为直接影响了金融市场。我观察到,特朗普总统对美联储主席鲍威尔的攻击导致美元汇率下跌,这反映出市场对美国经济前景的担忧。然而,美元贬值也有其积极的一面,它可以降低美国出口商品的价格,从而提高其在国际市场上的竞争力。因此,特朗普政府的言论和政策对市场的影响是复杂且多方面的。 Nancy Marshall-Genzer: 我注意到特朗普总统对美联储主席鲍威尔的公开不满,他一直呼吁美联储立即降低利率。鲍威尔在本周的国会听证会上表示,美联储目前有能力等待,并希望观察特朗普总统的关税政策对经济的影响。我个人认为,鲍威尔的立场表明,即使面对来自总统的压力,美联储也在努力保持其独立性,并根据实际经济数据做出决策。 Donald Trump: 我认为鲍威尔实际上是个非常愚蠢的人,他的货币政策正在损害美国的经济利益。我强烈认为,为了促进经济增长,美联储应该立即降低利率。我正在考虑更换美联储主席,并已经缩小了候选人范围。 Brian Reeling: 考虑到鲍威尔不太可能获得连任,我认为他可能不会感受到来自政治言论的巨大压力。他可能会更加关注经济数据和美联储的长期目标,而不是屈服于短期的政治压力。我认为,鲍威尔的这种独立性对维护美联储的信誉至关重要。

Deep Dive

Chapters
President Trump's public criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and speculation about a potential replacement are impacting financial markets. Powell's resistance to Trump's pressure for lower interest rates is analyzed, along with the effect on the U.S. dollar.
  • President Trump's criticism of Jerome Powell is impacting financial markets.
  • Powell's term ends next spring, making him less susceptible to Trump's pressure.
  • The U.S. dollar has weakened since Trump's attacks on Powell.

Shownotes Transcript

Translations:
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President Trump moves markets in part by calling America's central banker names.

I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. A published report is moving financial markets that President Trump could announce a successor to, but not yet replace, the powerful chair of the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell's term isn't over until next year. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall-Genzer has more. President Trump has made no secret of his displeasure with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He wants the Fed to lower interest rates right away. Yesterday at a NATO press conference, he had this to say about Powell.

I think he's a very stupid person, actually. The president added that he's narrowed his pick to replace Powell down to three or four people. Powell's term as chair ends next spring. Brian Reeling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that makes it easier for Powell to resist Trump's pressure campaign. Obviously, he is extremely unlikely to be re-nominated. So, you know, I'm not sure he feels a lot of pressure from the political rhetoric.

In congressional testimony this week, Powell said the Fed is in good shape to wait on an interest rate cut. He wants to see how Trump's tariffs affect the economy and says they could start driving up prices this summer. I'm Nancy Marshall Gensler for Marketplace.

The U.S. dollar index versus other currencies is down a full percentage point since the latest Trump attack on Powell. That's in part to bet the U.S. economy could get weaker. The dollar is down 10 percent this year. The flip side is a weaker dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper, easier to sell in foreign countries.

The cost of health care is ever-growing. New government estimates show it'll go from 17 to 20 percent of total U.S. economic output within eight years. This says Republican lawmakers debate how deeply they want to cut health care programs like Medicaid as part of the big tax-cutting and spending plan. The House version of the bill means 11 million people could lose health insurance. Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval looks at why the tab for health care keeps getting bigger.

Healthcare spending is expected to outpace GDP growth in the coming years, at least through 2033, according to new estimates by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. One reason why? We do see the baby boomers retiring. Benjamin Uchert with Texas A&M University says as the silver tsunami ages, people will utilize more health care.

Treatment is also getting pricier, and you have to factor in the cost of health innovation, says MIT's Jonathan Gruber. We're just inventing cool new stuff that costs more money. Gruber says growth in health care spending isn't necessarily a bad thing. It drives employment and can lead to new, life-saving cures for disease. The problem is that society is unwilling to pony up to pay those costs. Consumers are also

Consider the current debate over cuts to Medicaid spending proposed by Republican lawmakers. To kick people off health insurance, we'll spend less on health care and people will die. And that's a tradeoff that I think the U.S. voter needs to recognize that these politicians are making. One way or the other, he says, when it comes to their health, Americans will have to pay. I'm Elizabeth Troval for Marketplace.

Thank you.

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Grainger, for the ones who get it done. A group of tanker ships used largely by Iran and Russia to sell oil on the global market to get around international sanctions is growing in size. The Shadow Fleet is now 17% of all international tankers, according to a report from Allianz. Reporter Daniel Ackerman has more.

In the early 2010s, the West slapped big sanctions on Iran's energy exports. So to keep its oil revenue flowing, Iran turned to the so-called shadow fleet, says Elizabeth Braugh, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

I spoke with her and other experts at a conference on the topic this week. It really began as a way for Iran to export and import because it was under so many sanctions. She says Russia now also uses shadow vessels to sell its oil. The country was sanctioned for invading Ukraine in 2022.

Ambra says the size of the international shadow fleet has more than doubled since then. They are essentially like a tumor on the global shipping system. These shadow vessels use all kinds of shadowy tactics. They spoof GPS, for example, to claim their loading oil at an Iraqi port when they're actually in Iran.

They carry fake insurance documents, and they transfer their cargo from one ship to another to another just to confuse anyone watching by satellite. Ambrose says these vessels aren't exactly in ship shape.

They are often old. They should really be scrapped. An old vessel that is poorly maintained poses significant risks of accidents and incidents, just like an old car. There have already been some minor collisions and oil spills caused by Shadow Fleet ships. Tomer Renan, a maritime risk analyst at Lloyd's List Intelligence, fears that a major environmental disaster could be next.

It's a massive accident that's waiting to happen. And because these ships are underinsured at best, cleanup costs aren't borne by the operators of the shadow vessels, says Joshua Tallis with the Center for Naval Analyses.

All of those costs are going to fall on the international community and most likely quite heavily off the coast of whatever country that accident actually happens on. And the continued growth of these risks shows that Western sanctions just haven't had their desired effect, says Ian Ralby, CEO of the maritime consultancy IR Concilium.

No amount of sanctions have put Russia, Iran, North Korea, or anyone out of business. Iran in particular has been very successful in finding ways of using the maritime space to continue to move oil and fuel illegally. He says intercepting these shadow ships isn't a great option because that would go against the principle of freedom of navigation on the high seas.

Most Navy's Coast Guards and Marine Police forces around the world are not going to have an impetus to try to take on this kind of situation, particularly given the extreme political blowback that would accompany any kind of interdiction. So for now, the Shadow Fleet keeps on sailing. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

And we've been following President Trump's family company taking orders for a mobile phone service offering a U.S.-made smartphone. We reported on experts doubting a made-in-the-USA phone was possible anytime soon. Now the publication The Verge noticed the promised T1-8002 phone is no longer being touted as U.S.-manufactured. The made-in-the-USA banner is gone from the Trump mobile website.

Now the promise is, quote, designed with American values in mind. The phone screen is now a bit shorter, and the amount of onboard RAM first listed as 12 gigs is now a mystery. In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio, Marketplace Morning Report. From APM, American Public Media.

This Old House has been America's most trusted source for all things DIY and home improvement for decades. And now we're on the radio and on demand. I think you're breaking into this wall regardless. I was hoping you wouldn't say that. I need to go and get some whiskey, I think. I would get the whiskey for sure. Subscribe to This Old House Radio Hour from LAist Studios, wherever you get your podcasts.