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Mixed signals on US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict means a mixed performance for oil. Live from the UK, this is the Marketplace Morning Report from the BBC World Service. I'm Stuart Clarkson in Fort Leanna Burn. Good morning.
Still unclear what action President Trump will take in the conflict between Israel and Iran. The BBC's US partner CBS says Trump has approved an attack plan but not taken a decision yet on whether to use it. The Middle East is home to some of the world's biggest oil producers, so it means uncertainty for prices. Let's talk to Jane Sydenham, Investment Director at Rathbones Investment Management. Hello. Hello.
Good morning. So a couple of options for the US, getting more involved in this, trying to broker some peace talks, and those two options could impact oil prices in a different way, I guess. Yes, most definitely. I mean, the oil price has gone up, anticipating the possibility of the close of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a very narrow shipping lane through
through the Middle East that carries about 20% of the world's oil. Important to say that hasn't actually changed since 1972, despite other conflicts that have taken place in the Middle East. But of course, the worry of it is what's pushed up the oil price in the short term. And the oil price has been, if anything, a little bit weaker before the threat of this conflict, because OPEC have added around a million barrels a day of production to world markets.
and the US oil strategic reserves are at a pretty high level. So there are counterbalancing factors that had been keeping the oil price low. So I think it's really the worry about this rather than the reality at this point. So we're expecting to see some rises if Trump says, yeah, we'll get involved in this. I think it adds to the uncertainty. Markets will always react negatively to that uncertainty in the short term.
But it's, of course, very much going to depend on what happens with shipping in that part of the world.
And there's a lot of emphasis on the impact on oil prices of this conflict. And that is because they influence the price of so many other things that we buy every day, right? Yes. I mean, energy prices are a huge input to the economy generally. I mean, some people say that economic growth is, you know, energy transformed. I think that's not an unreasonable way to look at it, really. But, you know, it really is the input cost for economies right across the board all the way around the world. Right.
And I guess we're all fairly helpless in what we can do to stop this happening. It's completely out of our hands, isn't it? Very much so. You know, it's right in the Middle East and there's nothing that we can do about it. Having said that...
You know, OPEC can produce more oil and the US is now a much greater, you know, a much larger producer of oil than it ever has been. I mean, it is now exporting to the rest of the world. So that has improved the supply of energy outside the Middle East. Thanks for being with us today. Really appreciate your time, Jane. Thank you. Let's do the numbers now.
And Air India says it will reduce the use of wide-body aircraft on international routes by 15% until mid-July. It's because of ongoing safety inspections and disruptions following the fatal crash at Ahmedabad last week. There's been a 400% year-on-year jump in exports to the US from Ireland, with sales worth $25 billion heading across the Atlantic in March. It's due to demand for ingredients used in weight-loss drugs and in diabetes medicines.
A $10 billion takeover of the LA Lakers basketball franchise is on the cards. It would be the most expensive sale of a US sports team in history.
And Syria's done its first international bank transfer via the SWIFT payment system since the outbreak of the country's 14-year civil war. It's hoped the milestone will help reintegrate Syria back into the global financial system. Now, Thailand has an export-dependent economy and is potentially facing some of President Trump's most punishing tariff rates, 36% if a reduction can't be negotiated. So how are key industries bearing up? My colleague and Marketplace host Leanna Byrne spoke to the BBC's Ed Butler.
Hello, Ed. Hi there. So, Ed, can you just sketch out the nature of Thailand's economy for me? Yeah. I mean, mostly Thailand makes stuff, actual manufactured goods, things like car parts, trucks.
Tourism, of course, is also a big element of the country's income. But importantly, it is a big net exporter. And the US is Thailand's biggest export destination. $60 billion a year goes there. And that's why it seems President Trump has set such a high potential tariff figure against Thailand.
Some of this, of course, is agricultural goods. Rubber, for example. Now, Thailand is the world's number one rubber exporter. And I visited a rubber plantation in the east of the country. It's a place called Thonburi. I spoke to a farmer there. Her name was Duang Chai. She'd been harvesting sap from trees in the area for 30 years nearly. And I asked her how she was feeling right now. Her words here are spoken by a translator.
The price of rubber is going down very much, so that's what she's concerned. Even the price of rubber last year is better than this year. So just the threat of these tariffs has caused the price to come right down and affects your bottom line? I'm sad. It's not good at all.
It's not good. The price is going down. She doesn't like it. She doesn't like it at all. But there's no other alternative option for farmers. So we just have to keep doing it. So it's really clear from listening to that that that's really affecting her. What other sectors did you see that are also having effects? Well,
Well, it's all of them, really. I mean, the uncertainties had such a big impact on sentiment, on the feeling in the economy. I went to an industrial park near Bangkok, which seeks to get in these foreign firms, get in foreign investment with tax breaks. And they're keen to expand what they do. But the uncertainty is holding things up. Rayon Kitapol, who's the boss of the place, he showed me around.
In front of us is a container full load of concrete for the construction work. A lot of construction happening. So you're still expanding? I think this is depending how is the trade deal, Thai and United States, going to work out. It's less activity, definitely. Everybody in the mode of wait and see.
Yeah, wait and see. I mean, Rayan Kittipol showed me a Chinese-owned solar panel factory that actually wasn't waiting. It had already been mothballed, he said, because of the tariff situation. Things are very quiet now. At a deep-sea port that I went to, it was eerily quiet. I'm told that exports since the initial announcements on tariffs have fallen.
But the Thai government is putting on a brave face. This week they told me that technical discussions on a trade deal with America are starting this week.
Their progress is sensitive. It seems very sensitive. And for that reason, they're not going to say anything more right now. Not a great economic picture, Ed, but what a beautiful country. Not the worst assignment to be on. Not at all. All right. The BBC's Ed Butler, thank you so much for joining us in Marketplace. Thanks for having me. And thank you to you for listening today. Our producer was Linda Walker. Our editor is Naomi Rainey. In the UK, I'm Stuart Clarkson with the Marketplace Money Report from the BBC World Service.
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