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cover of episode Why Should We Care About Asia’s Growing Energy Needs? | with Paul Everingham

Why Should We Care About Asia’s Growing Energy Needs? | with Paul Everingham

2025/5/2
logo of podcast Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?
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Paul Everingham: 亚洲液化天然气需求预计到2050年将增长近一倍，主要由经济增长、能源需求和煤炭转型驱动。未来十年，需求增长主要来自中国主导的北亚，而2035年后，南亚和东南亚将成为主要增长区域。亚洲占全球经济增长的50%，因此对经济增长感兴趣的人应该关注亚洲。同时，亚洲排放量占全球的大部分，因此应对气候变化需要在亚洲采取行动。许多亚洲国家严重依赖煤炭，缺乏清洁能源，因此需要转型，以改善空气质量和生活水平。我们应该关注亚洲邻国的能源需求，以提升他们的生活质量和现代化水平。 Paul Everingham: 我认为液化天然气不仅是过渡燃料，更是经济和国家安全的燃料。天然气比煤炭和石油更清洁，是可靠的基荷电力来源。风能和太阳能等可再生能源的发电能力较低，需要天然气作为备用。天然气非常适合满足电力需求高峰，因为它能快速调节涡轮机。天然气是一种灵活的燃料，既能提供基荷电力，又能根据需要调节，对设备影响小。美国液化天然气出口对于亚洲摆脱煤炭和石油至关重要。亚洲国家不可能立即从煤炭过渡到太阳能，因为缺乏足够的电池容量和电力传输基础设施。拜登政府暂停液化天然气出口的决定更多是出于政治原因。天然气有助于亚洲国家实现其巴黎气候承诺，并能利用碳捕获和储存等减排机制。亚洲能源的现实是，如果不用天然气替代煤炭，就会继续燃烧煤炭。 Paul Everingham: 尽管中国人口下降且经济增长放缓，但天然气在中国能源结构中扮演着重要角色，尤其是在减少新建燃煤电厂方面。中国新建燃煤电厂的速度很快，天然气可以帮助减缓这种趋势。中国致力于能源自给自足，包括控制太阳能供应链和建设燃煤电厂。中国是世界上最大的太阳能投资国，但同时也是世界上最大的煤炭消费国和排放国。中国承诺到2030年不再新建燃煤电厂，这将增加对天然气的需求。中国不希望过度依赖俄罗斯的天然气，因此正在寻求天然气供应多元化。全球南方国家对能源的需求不断增长，发达国家也因人工智能等新兴技术而需要更多能源。 Paul Everingham: 全球煤炭使用量持续上升，没有减少的迹象，能源实际上是在扩张而非转型。美国因人工智能和数据中心的发展，能源需求大幅增长。应该采取“全盘考虑”的能源策略，包括核能、天然气和可再生能源，以满足不断增长的需求。如果排除某些能源选项，将无法满足能源需求，并会阻碍亚洲和非洲的发展。液化天然气比管道天然气更灵活，可以从多个供应商处购买并运往多个港口。建立液化天然气供应链需要时间和投资，并需要与发展中国家合作。预计2030年代南亚和东南亚将迎来液化天然气革命。必须有来自美国的天然气进入亚太地区。美国西海岸的天然气对于太平洋盆地至关重要。除了美国，卡塔尔、莫桑比克和巴林等国也将成为液化天然气供应国。 Paul Everingham: 澳大利亚主要致力于维持现有的液化天然气合同，没有扩张计划。到2040年，美国将成为世界上最大的液化天然气供应国，占据全球35%的份额。如果要亚洲摆脱煤炭，就需要来自美国的额外液化天然气，但价格必须合理。南亚的财政实力较弱，交易对手风险较高，因此液化天然气需要大量供应且价格合理。卡塔尔拥有巨大的天然气资源，并以谨慎的方式进行开发。卡塔尔以保守的方式开发天然气资源，没有充斥市场。日本和其他国家巧妙地将卡塔尔纳入其投资组合策略。印度尼西亚和马来西亚是早期的液化天然气生产国，但它们的油田正在衰退。澳大利亚和卡塔尔的油田已承诺，卡塔尔正在扩张，而美国拥有巨大的页岩气储量。马塞勒斯盆地拥有足够全球使用100年的天然气储量。马塞勒斯盆地的开发将改变全球天然气市场，并使美国成为能源主导者。 Paul Everingham: 为了解决能源扩张问题，所有选项都必须摆在桌面上，否则将限制人们的福祉和经济发展。核能，包括小型模块化反应堆和现代聚变技术，在清洁、无排放的基荷电力行业中将发挥重要作用。核能将在西方国家和北亚发挥重要作用，但不太可能主导南亚和东南亚。更多的清洁能源解决方案越好。台湾依赖液化天然气，但并非唯一来源，还有煤炭、石油、核能和一些可再生能源。台湾可以通过投资存储基础设施来提高液化天然气的自给自足能力。台湾正在建设更多的存储能力，并拥有多种能源来源，这让人感到乐观。南海拥有天然气资源，中国的九段线阻碍了菲律宾和越南开发深水油田的能力。中国可能希望限制菲律宾实现能源自给自足的能力，并可能想为自己获取资源。中国可能希望控制菲律宾或越南近海发现的油田。控制航运线可能被中国视为控制亚洲的一种方式。可口可乐是自由的象征。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Asia's LNG demand is projected to double by 2050, driven by rapid economic growth and a transition from coal. This surge is crucial for global climate goals and improving living standards across the region. The increasing demand highlights Asia's significant role in global economic growth and emissions.
  • Asia's LNG demand to nearly double by 2050
  • North Asia (China) to drive initial growth, followed by South and Southeast Asia
  • Asia's economic growth and emissions to significantly impact global climate goals
  • Need to address energy needs and emissions in Asia for humanitarian progress

Shownotes Transcript

Paul Everingham joins Ray and Jim to explain that liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand in Asia is expected to nearly double by 2050. The initial growth will be driven by North Asia (especially China), with South Asia and Southeast Asia becoming the main growth centers after 2035. This surge is tied to Asia’s rapid economic development, growing energy needs, and the region’s transition from coal.

Asia is projected to account for 50% of global economic growth and a growing share of global emissions. Addressing energy needs and emissions in Asia is crucial for global climate goals and humanitarian progress, as many Asian countries still rely heavily on coal and lack access to clean energy and modern amenities.

Paul describes LNG as more than just a bridge to renewables—it’s vital for economic and national security, and asserts that LNG is cleaner than coal and oil and provides reliable "baseload" and "peaking" power, which renewables like wind and solar currently can’t match due to their intermittency and storage limitations.

The Biden administration’s pause on US LNG export facilities was discussed, with Paul arguing that such moves are more political than scientific. He stresses that immediate transitions from coal to renewables aren’t feasible in Asia due to infrastructure and storage constraints, and that gas is essential for meeting Paris climate commitments.

Despite a slowing economy and population decline, China’s energy demand is rising as it seeks to reduce new coal plant construction and diversify gas imports away from reliance on Russia. China is investing in both renewables and LNG to ensure energy security.

The conversation highlights that global energy demand is rising, not just shifting. Coal use is at record highs, and the US is facing new surges in energy demand due to AI and data centers. Paul advocates for an "all of the above" approach, including nuclear, gas, and renewables, to meet growing needs.

Paul says LNG offers more flexible supply options than pipeline gas, reducing dependency on single suppliers. However, building out LNG infrastructure is capital-intensive and complex. The US, Qatar, and Australia are the dominant LNG exporters, but the US is expected to become the leading supplier by 2040, especially as Asian demand grows.

Qatar is a major player due to its vast gas reserves and strategic, conservative development. Indonesia and Malaysia were early LNG exporters, but their fields are now in decline. The US, with its massive shale gas reserves, is poised to shape global markets, especially as new fields come online.

The vulnerability of LNG supply lines to blockades (e.g., Taiwan) and the strategic importance of the South China Sea’s energy resources were discussed. China’s control over disputed areas impacts the ability of countries like the Philippines and Vietnam to develop their own gas fields.

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This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia), a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.