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cover of episode Why Should We Care Who Wins the U.S.-China Trade War?

Why Should We Care Who Wins the U.S.-China Trade War?

2025/4/18
logo of podcast Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

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J
Jim Caruso
S
Steve Okun
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Steve Okun: 我认为,我们今天所处的时期非常微妙。在不知道未来会发生什么的情况下,一切都在冻结:投资冻结,贸易冻结,外交冻结。我们需要了解特朗普政府的目标是什么,哪些关税是暂时的,哪些是永久性的,以及美中能否达成谈判解决方案。美国长期以来在服务业(如娱乐、金融、医疗和旅游业)占据优势,但在更具限制性的贸易环境下,这些行业可能会受到影响。 我不认为目前美国采取的策略是正确的。它不是有针对性的,也没有与伙伴和盟友合作。它是在双边进行的。长期来看,我认为美国会因此而变得更糟。如果对所有商品征收统一的10%关税,企业可能会接受,但前提是这种政策清晰透明且具有可预测性。如果美国要对中国采取强硬措施,那也应该是有针对性的。对所有国家(包括柬埔寨等发展中国家)实施全面关税,不利于美国利益,也不会促进制造业回流美国。 美国在服务业领域占据主导地位,如果美国公司在服务业领域遭到报复性关税,情况将变得非常不同。我们现在看到的,是企业将生产线从中国转移到其他国家(“中国加一”战略)。这既有地缘政治原因,也有经济原因。随着供应链的“中国加一”战略,关税、投资限制等措施也可能变成“中国加一”模式,这使得界定“中国公司”变得困难。 美中双方互不信任,这使得达成贸易协议变得非常困难。美国对华政策存在分歧,一部分人主张脱钩,另一部分人主张继续贸易,但需要改变贸易方式。在美中贸易关系走向明朗之前,一切处于暂停状态。 新加坡等小国依赖基于规则的全球贸易体系,无法在双边体系中生存。世界贸易组织等国际组织未能有效应对大国之间的贸易冲突和规则破坏。区域贸易协定可能成为替代方案。除了关税壁垒外,还存在非关税壁垒(如投资限制、许可要求等),这些壁垒也阻碍了市场准入。特朗普政府使用关税的目标可能是为了减少贸易逆差或促进制造业回流,但两者无法同时实现。关税可以作为税收收入来源,用于抵消减税带来的收入损失。目前来看,特朗普和习近平谁在贸易谈判中更有优势取决于特朗普能否与其他国家达成联盟。如果特朗普政府能够与其他国家建立联盟,那么特朗普在贸易谈判中将更有优势;否则,双方谁更能承受经济或政治压力将决定胜负。 Jim Caruso: 我认为,如果对所有进口商品征收10%的关税,考虑到美国较高的劳动力和环境成本,美国出口商品的竞争力将下降。讨论关税和贸易时,常常忽略美国在服务业领域的优势及其带来的贸易顺差。 Ray Powell: 中国最近声明不再采取报复性措施,这可能被解读为美国贸易策略正在对中国产生影响。由于美国市场的重要性,各国难以形成统一战线对抗美国的贸易政策(囚徒困境)

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

Founder and CEO of APAC Advisors Steve Okun) joins Jim and Ray to talk about the suddenly raging trade war between the U.S. and China and what kind of impact it may have on the global trading system.

Steve observes that international investment is largely frozen due to the uncertainty about what the U.S. goals are, which tariffs are temporary versus permanent, and whether the U.S. and China can come to a negotiated settlement.

Steve also explains that while China has certainly exploited its advantage in manufacturing, the U.S. has long enjoyed its own advantage in the services sectors–such as entertainment, finance, health, and tourism. He says these U.S. industries may suffer under a more restrictive trade environment.

The discussion also turns to international organizations and groupings like the World Trade Organization, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and whether they are losing influence in the global system as the big powers go their own way.

Steve then speculates how U.S-China trade talks may proceed - and what cards Donald Trump and Xi Jinping believe they still have to play. Regardless, he expects continued volatility to continue as a new normal moving forward.

Follow Steve Okun on his very popular LinkedIn profile), or at his consultancy, APAC Advisors).

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast); or on LinkedIn) or BlueSky) at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRa)y) or on LinkedIn).

Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn).

Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media) (on X @ianellisjones) or LinkedIn)).

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia), a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.