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cover of episode What It Takes to Negotiate With China

What It Takes to Negotiate With China

2025/5/22
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Big Take Asia
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Nicholas Burns
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Nicholas Burns: 我认为，中国是全球贸易体系中长期存在且重要的扰乱者。美国及其他国家对中国征收关税，是因为中国长期以低于成本的价格倾销商品，损害了其他国家的就业。尽管中国试图将自己描绘成贸易战的受害者，但事实并非如此。双方都需要达成协议，因为经济联系紧密，谁也无法承受关系破裂的后果。然而，谈判将非常艰难。我没有预料到关税会达到如此高的水平，甚至导致贸易禁运，这对全球经济产生了深远影响。中国政府试图将自己描绘成在贸易谈判中占据上风的形象，并向全球南方国家传递不会被美国欺负的信息。但中国经济也面临挑战，如增长放缓、房地产危机和消费问题，因此中国也需要达成协议。中国一直在为与美国的贸易战做准备，重新调整了供应链，并准备长期斗争。总的来说，我认为美中关系是复杂且长期的竞争关系，需要既对抗又合作，以避免灾难性的冲突。

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This chapter analyzes the current state of the US-China trade war, exploring the challenges and potential for a resolution within the proposed 90-day timeframe. It examines the perspectives of both countries and the economic implications of a prolonged trade conflict.
  • The US and China have temporarily lowered tariffs and agreed to keep talking with hopes of a new trade deal by early August.
  • China has been a major disruptor in the global trade system for three decades, engaging in practices like dumping manufactured goods below cost.
  • Millions of American and Chinese jobs depend on trade between the two countries, making a complete severing of economic ties unsustainable for both sides.

Shownotes Transcript

The trade war between the US and China is on pause, with both sides hoping to agree on a new trade deal by early August. But questions remain about how realistic that timetable could be, given the challenges facing the world’s two largest economies, who both collaborate and compete with one another. 

On today’s Big Take podcast, Former US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns joins host David Gura to discuss the trade war, the challenges facing his successor and what he’s telling foreign policy students who are worried about the future of diplomacy. “We’ve gotta steel ourselves for the next decade or two to a historic competition with China. And China right now is stronger.”

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