EP82: Aftershocks: Myanmar and Tariffs w/ Khin Ohmar
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Welcome to Straight Talk Southeast Asia. This is a podcast that covers current developments in the region, particular countries, domestic politics, as well as regional issues. We look in depth at what is happening, why it might be happening. We speak to analysts, academics from the region, based in the region, and to better understand what's happening and what might be the projections of what's happening ahead. We're now in our second season.

I'm Bridget Welsh. I'm a political analyst and academic who's worked on Southeast Asia for many decades. I was raised here. I'm living here. And very importantly, I care about what's happening in the region. Thanks for joining me. Welcome to Straight Talk Southeast Asia. You're with Bridget Welsh. And this is episode 14 of season three this year. We are really always glad that you're listening in to this program. It's been an extremely eventful week.

We are going to spend the bulk of the conversation talking about the situation in Myanmar. And we're speaking with Kinn Omar, who is a civil society activist on the ground, who shares her views about what is the situation.

I'd like to highlight two things that my own resources and my conversations, including with Ken, highlight. The need for medical assistance and medication, and also the continued pressure on the junta. This should not be an opportunity to legitimize criminals, but to focus energy on the people that need it most.

The conversation in Straight Talk, however, begins with tariffs. And my co-host Zach Abouza talks about the shifts and changes that are taking place in Pax Americana. This is a pivotal time to change the relationship with Southeast Asia, particularly with the United States and the region. These tariffs are going to have significant consequences. And here on Straight Talk, we're going to continue this conversation.

We also hope that the conversation on the earthquake will help to generate more support and more pressure for reaching the people that are continuing to suffer, many living out of doors, facing trauma, recognizing that the aftershocks are continuous, and also taking a moment to thank many of the rescue workers and many of the ordinary people who are bravely trying to face the circumstances that they're having to endure.

This episode also takes a moment to mark the passing of a very dear friend to both Zach and myself, and that is Gwen Robinson. Gwen had her funeral this last week in Bangkok, and she's had many accolades from the Financial Times and from Nikki, where she was a senior editor working on columns.

Gwen was a force of nature, a woman who cared deeply about Myanmar and Southeast Asia, and who was exacting and demanding in her work for journalists who speak truth to power, but also to raise the concerns of those of most disadvantage. The last time I saw Gwen was last year. We talked about what was happening in the region.

She was a fighter, and she was determined to continue to fight on even to the last few weeks of her life. A very brave woman, an inspiration. Both Zach and I and many of her friends will miss her tremendously. And we dedicate this episode in her memory by drawing attention to Myanmar.

I know she would feel deeply concerned and continue people to write on the region and what's happening there. And so we continue these conversations here on Straight Talk. Thanks for joining me here on this program. On April 2nd, U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs that will fundamentally alter the global trading system and put in place all the elements required for a global recession.

The United States imposed 49% tariffs on all goods from Cambodia, 46% on goods from Vietnam, 36% on goods from Thailand, 32% on goods from Indonesia, 24% on goods from Malaysia, 17% on goods from the Philippines, and even 10% on goods from Singapore.

All of this is on top of the 10% baseline tariffs that the Trump administration had already imposed. Southeast Asian countries clearly have run up large trade surpluses with the United States. Vietnam tops the list at $123 billion, followed by Thailand at $45 billion, Malaysia $24 billion, Indonesia $16 billion, and even Cambodia $12 billion.

And it's hard to state just how important trade is for these countries. Exports to the United States account for 29% of Vietnam's GDP, 27% of Cambodia's, and even Thailand, 12%. The Trump administration had signaled that these tariffs were going to be reciprocal, and yet they were nothing of the sort.

Thailand has the highest tariff rates on goods from the United States at 9.8%. Cambodia and Vietnam have 9.4% rates. Indonesia, 8%. Philippines, 6%. Malaysia at 5.6%. Shark economists and journalists quickly figured out how the Trump administration came up with their formula.

The 2024 deficit divided by total imports times 50%. The tariffs reflect the Trump administration's obsession with trading goods, and it completely ignores economic fundamentals, including comparative advantage, automation. There's a reason why trading investment has flowed to this region over the years. Cheaper labor,

lower environmental and other regulatory standards. But it was also the policies of the first Trump administration which became concerned that China dominated too much of global manufacturing. All of this dependency was borne out during the pandemic. The United States since then has encouraged corporations to de-risk from China and diversify their supply chains.

The obsession with trading goods also willfully ignores trade in services, where the United States clearly has a comparative advantage. It also ignores the invisible flows of money. The wealth accumulated in Southeast Asia has for years been reinvested in the United States in terms of foreign direct investment.

the tens of thousands of Southeast Asian students who study in the United States each year, tourism, or the purchase of real estate and other assets. All of these keep U.S. education cheaper, interest rates lower, and have driven economic growth. While it's true the United States has lost manufacturing job since globalization began, it also ignores the reality

that the United States is a $27 trillion economy and the envy of the world. Its corporations are amongst the most dynamic, creative in the world. Our capital markets are amongst the freest. It is where corporations flock to raise their capital for their own investments. If historians are looking to date the end of Pax Americana, April 2nd is likely to be the date.

The liberal international order survived the first Trump administration despite his disdain for alliances. That contempt for alliances has only grown as Trump singles out countries for free riding. But today, you have an obsession with tariffs and a misguided belief that American manufacturing can be restored despite the fact that it ignores economic fundamentals.

including labor rates, the regulatory environment, and comparative advantage, not to mention automation. This past week, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth traveled to the region where he committed the United States to defending against Chinese aggression. There were a slew of goodies offered on the way. In the Philippines alone, the United States committed to deploying Typhon anti-ship missile systems

and agreeing in principle to sell the Philippines F-16 fighter jets, a $5 billion deal. The United States and Japan negotiated a new framework for the alliance.

But all of this ignores the fact that the Chinese have not fought a kinetic war since 1979. The Chinese are masters at keeping things below the threshold of war. They engage in all-domain political warfare. They orchestrate all the elements of statecraft so effectively.

The Trump administration has systematically taken apart the institutions needed to counter Chinese political warfare. The dismantling of U.S. Agency for International Development and the ending of development assistance cedes that space to China.

the united states will no longer advance democracy promote civil society or push for free press the administration has defunded radio free asia and voice of america which has totally ceded the information space to china the dismantling of institutions like the u.s institute of peace

make clear that the United States has no interest in preventing conflict, mediation, or dealing with the proliferation of cyber scam centers. And now the United States government is imposing tariffs that will devastate the economies of Southeast Asia that are so dependent on exports.

President Trump wants to compete with China, but at the same time imposes crippling tariffs on every ally and partner in the region, the hardest hit by tariffs. Indeed, of the top six tariffs, four are in ASEAN. For over 75 years, the United States has led the global order.

It believed in absolute gains. It opened its markets to partners and allies, understanding that global prosperity would lead to interdependence and globalization. That is no longer the case. The Trump administration views the world in very stark zero-sum terms, where there can be only winners and losers. The administration

has a very myopic and short-term view of international relations. Next week, Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia. If he was smart, he would go to all the capitals of Southeast Asia, where he would be warmly embraced.

While the United States has injected a degree of economic uncertainty and imposed tariffs that will lead to dramatic reductions of GDP growth this year, China will continue to promote free trade and investment. While the United States is causing uncertainty and pain, China will be there to remind them that their prosperity is directly linked to China's prosperity.

The world order has been flipped on its head. The era of Pax Americana is over. In Malaysia, on the second day of Raya, we had a terrible explosion near Putra Heights here in Kuala Lumpur, in the Klang Valley, where a gas pipeline exploded. It seems that there were developers digging in this area. It was very close to homes. 150 people were injured.

It sent shockwaves not only to the families and communities that were affected, many of them by burns, but also across the country, pointing to the need for better regulation, local development. There is now the promise of a full investigation. This will spur and recognize that there needs to be greater political accountability in how land is being managed at the local level.

Hope you're enjoying listening to this episode. If you want to find out more about previous episodes, you can reach this on the website, straighttalksoutheastasia.com. The link should also be available in the show notes. If you want to contribute to the production costs of the podcast, you can hit the link, buy me a coffee. Every little penny counts. All that money will not go to me, but go to the producers who are helping me to put the show together. Thanks for listening.

Today, we're discussing the very serious situation in Myanmar with Ken Omar. She is from the Progressive Voice, the Myanmar Human Rights Organization, a well-seasoned person who knows the situation on the ground and has been working for human rights for Myanmar people for many decades. Ken, thank you so much for joining us here on Straight Talk. Thank you for having me, Brigitte.

Let's talk about the humanitarian situation on the ground after this horrible earthquake. We know even before the earthquake, the humanitarian situation was serious, now reaching unprecedented levels. What's the scale of the damage that we know now over one week after? What are the things that are not being understood by the international community about what's happened in this earthquake and its impact?

The situation is after the earthquake, there are like aftershocks, keeps coming almost every day.

to the scale of over even like 5.7. The most hard hit areas like Mandalay and other areas, even some earthquakes around the Yangon division areas, first of all, people are really scared. That's the first thing. The second is the country itself doesn't have what it needs to address such magnitude of an earthquake or such devastating natural disaster.

There are so many things, starting from the very basic needs for the victims and affected communities, all the way to the rescue and other things, including like communication, like the internet. So it's just the needs are really immense. People from all over the world will see where the media could cover, such as the big city like Mandalay City, also with the most impact.

from the earthquake. But then there are many other areas beyond the urban and cities, especially the epic center of the earthquake is Sakai.

Many of these remote areas, because of the internet cut, also because the people are not allowed, and the military militias obstructing their aid missions by the local volunteers. There are a lot of these military soldiers and militias. By April 2nd, they started to check the phones and checkpoints, stopping the people.

It's become even more frequent. So there are a lot of these things, military restrictions and obstruction of the aid delivery are unnecessarily exacerbating the people's sufferings, which you don't see much that international media cannot really cover much. But you will also see even the Malaysian rescue mission will issue a statement saying that they are bombing and

and there are also the blocking of the aid, for example. So these are the things that we really need to detect. I'm a part of this Myanmar Local Civil Society Emergency Response Coordination Unit.

where we are mobilizing with the frontline responders in different parts of the earthquake hit areas, including the urban as well as the rural areas. We're working really hard to try to get the aid to pretty much everywhere, including the areas where the Myanmar military hunter will still have the strong control, such as Nepal. But there are so much of the need that we need to really try to get to the people. So we're trying.

As you've noted, six regions were affected, affecting almost 15 million people, not just those in the core centers. Some of those areas were controlled by non-military forces. We also see a situation where the needs are serious. Estimates are at least 10,000 people have died. There are many more people that are missing and we're unaware of because some sites have not even been able to access. And as you rightly note, there's been repeated bombing by the junta.

Now, at least for the temporary period, we have ceasefires. We'll see how well they hold for a few weeks. But the access to where people are in need is not happening, as you rightly point out, Kenji.

Yes, first the National Unity Government called for the pressure ceasefire for two weeks, followed by the ethnic armed alliances. Also, they declared their one month. Then the Myanmar military, after that, announced up until April 22. However, even on the day of their declaration of the ceasefire,

There were bombings. They continue to bomb. There are aerial bombings and attacks by the jet fighters, paramotors and drones, including in the northern in Kachin state, as well as in the current state, but also including the areas where in the epic center in Sagaim, where the people were already impacted from the earthquake and have nowhere to go. And there were bombings. There were already over 20 times of the bombing since the earthquake.

What we have is a situation where the junta are trying to use this crisis to legitimize themselves internationally, but domestically, they're continuing to engage in terror of the population. What can you talk about in terms of the responses of civil society and everyday citizens? What's happening on the ground? You said you're helping to mobilize groups.

What can be done to try to help ordinary citizens in terms of being able to access assistance? To talk about that, you will see just ordinary people with their bare hands are trying to rescue. But also the civil society are mobilizing to really fundraise and make sure that the funds that are being raised reach to the people with no discrimination.

whether urban or city or the rural, but also we will see where it is most hard-headed, but at the same time where the international rescue team or the international aid could have access to, such as for example Mandalay, because the military will still need to allow some of the international aid agencies have access to a city like Mandalay.

You will see there are some international aid and even the UN will say, UN already claimed that they have access to everywhere, but that's not what it is on the ground. They don't have access to everywhere. They have access to the areas where the Myanmar military will allow them to go.

There are many areas where the Myanmar military will not allow them to go. So for us as a civil society, we want to make sure that people are having these emergency needs as they need. So basically what we're trying is when the people on the ground are doing their best to rescue or even the local charity individuals who are able to contribute and donate, they are also doing their part by

sending the food or having the local community in the impacted areas cook the food or things like that. But also as a civil society like us, we are raising the fund so that people on the ground will have certain emergency needs such as their food ration, as well as the sanitary kits, but also their medicines.

You need to also look at that, for example, because people now living in the monasteries or in the football field or wherever they are able to. And then there are no water because of the earthquake. Water also got dried out. We need the living machines for the water purification. And at the same time, the toilets need to be built in order to also ensure that there is no other follow-up disaster like this.

The cholera outbreak could be possible because of the rainy season also starting to come. Lives are all uprooted, whether they are rich or not rich. At this point, all of these emergency needs, as well as the intermediate and long-term reconstruction and recovery, are the things that as civil society we are looking into. Our civil society is very vibrant and very strong.

We are comprised with the human rights, as well as the documentation groups, as well as the humanitarian groups who have been involved or have experienced in the past, even like in 2023, as you will remember, Cyclone Mocha in Rakhine and other places.

In 2024, there was typhoon Yagi that hit places like the Kareni state in the eastern part, bordering with Thailand. So our civil society is already pulling in all our knowledge, experience and our systems

We're not like the UN agencies or the big INGOs, but we do have the local transparent and accountable systems that we make it transparent to the public. And we are pulling all of these resources, knowledge and experience together. So we have been already distributing our networks on the ground, distributing, traveling to different parts, both in the city as well as to the rural areas. But I think the challenge we have is now because the military

Not only they are obstructing their local aid deliveries, but they are also looking with suspicious eyes. They know that the whole country rejects them. They know the civil society rejects them. And so they see there is a worry of being arrested. I want to also highlight one situation. It's like even in Mandalay, the most hard-hurt city areas. In some areas, after two days or three days,

of the earthquake, the military started to go out to their resident areas and they have the list of the young men between 18 to 35 years old who have won the lottery. They've been already picked by the military to go and serve the military for the fighting against the democratic forces. This forced conscription is already even continuing during this disaster time.

Let's talk about the international response. I hear that there are 2,000 rescuers from the international community over 15 countries. The aid has been limited in terms of the overall money as promised is around 50 million. This is still evolving, but the concerns are that the international aid will be siphoned off by the junta that is known for its corruption and greed.

What can the international community do better now? We've seen that the countries that have been the most prominent have been China and India. The Indian prime minister met with Min Aung Hlaing in Bangkok, as did others this weekend, giving this man who's wanted for his criminal activities by the ICC and has an Interpol call for him out, giving him face. What can the international community do better?

They can do quite a few things practically on the ground. For example, as there are embassies based in Yangon, the diplomats are there. If not all, some of them are there, including some of the ambassadors are there.

They need to go out, they need to show their presence to these military people. The reality is when the international community shows up, shows their presence on the ground for the military people, it's like a warning for them, right? They see that somebody international is watching them. Those diplomats in Yangon need to step up, need to step up and go out and show their presence

in the community to the authorities so that these authorities know that the world is watching them. So that's very important. And I'm saying that as a real practical because we have experience already like when the democracy activists being arrested and taken out to the court, when the international community like the diplomats go to their court and show their face, the court will have a different reaction to the democracy activists. So I think it's a good one practical way.

The other is for the UN agencies and INGOs.

As you can imagine, the aid donor countries, including like Australia and Ireland, I'm sure, and EU, they will look into the funding channel like ICRC. But after sending to the ICRC, they should not leave alone like that because the reality on the ground is ICRC, as the foreign national staff, foreign staff, don't have access to the ground unless the military will allow them to go. So it's important that ICRC don't

just transfer the funds into the hands of the Myanmar Red Cross, or there is also this group called the Myanmar Natural Disaster Management Committee, which is under the Social Welfare Ministry, controlled at the moment by the military.

These entities cannot do their aid governing independently. The aid donors from the top all the way to those intermediaries or those who receive like ICIC, they need to make sure the aid governs. They need to make sure that aid is distributed impartially. We as a civil society, we are distributing impartially. Whether military people or not military people in neighborhood areas, we don't look into that. We give to the people who need it.

And they need to ensure that military control entities are not governed or directed and manipulated and controlled by the military. They have to step up out of the way how they do in other countries' natural disasters. Because Myanmar, in the current situation, as you said, is with this Myanmar military, have been now launching this terror campaign against the people for more than four years. What about ASEAN? What can they do?

Oh, ASEAN also need to do more. Some of the ASEAN leaders are planning to go. Just going over there and meeting with the military in Naypyidaw, having meetings and maybe see a few sites in Naypyidaw because Naypyidaw is also hit hard.

As much as the international rescue team and international aid immediately landed in Naypyidaw, the international or the ASEAN foreign dignitaries will be allowed to enter Naypyidaw, where the military will receive them, of course. But they need to demand, they want to go out to the field, they want to go out to meet with the communities. But they also need to demand the military not to obstruct the people's

people's aid delivery and they need to demand the military stop the bombing because what's the point of announcing the three-week ceasefire but then just keep bombing since the day one?

For the ASEAN, if they don't add that, if they don't demand that, then what's the point of them going to Naypyidaw and meeting and shaking hands where their presence will be used by the military for their propaganda, which they've been using already to some of the international rescue or the aid delivery already.

The ASEAN leaders, they should better understand by now how this Myanmar military trick and manipulate and use them for their political propaganda as a tool. That's something that we need to really ask the ASEAN leaders to do that. Otherwise, there's no point even going there because Myanmar people will even get very angry that they come in and they just meet with the military and they go back when the aid from the ASEAN AHA Center is not able to reach to the people.

the earthquake already like one week by now. We need to be very clear for the areas where the democratic resistance control is. The Myanmar military will use the aid. They will weaponize the aid by using the aid that they will try to enter those areas where they lost control in the last two, three years.

they will try to bring the aid with their people and then they will actually start their military attacks against the democratic resistance. So the international aid agencies need to be

very well aware that their aid cannot be used to do harm to the people. So do no harm is something in addition to impartiality and neutrality and all, the do no harm is important. So they cannot allow their military to weaponize their aid by the military traveling with the aid.

Can you tell me, have there been any assessments done? Let's take a place like Sagaing, which has been one of the most important regions for rice production in the northern part. It's been devastated by this earthquake, but it was also devastated by fighting that was happening beforehand. It's also a very holy place in Myanmar.

One of the things that has happened beyond the destruction of people's lives is we've seen tremendous destruction to religious and cultural buildings in the country. The damage goes well beyond that. After we get out of the situation with regard to immediate basic needs, then the real impact will be on livelihoods.

What do you see as key points that you think need to be in the mind of people who are engaging with Myanmar, thinking things holistically from the impact of the earthquake? What do you see as this?

Yes, those areas with all these hundreds of years old pagoda and mosque, and these are all being impacted very severely. We hear that some groups are looking into how to help reconstruct or rebuild because this is really the culture of the people over there and as a whole country as well, for the Buddhists or also for the Muslim community or the church communities.

It is important, but as much as they plan for that, the most important thing is they need their community to be a part of it. But how can the community be a part of that planning of the rebuilding or reconstruction unless they can also

resolve their current challenging situation that they are having because they are home and their lives are uprooted. They lost their family members. The challenge is if we go to the reconstruction thinking now, but without the people participation or without the people current needs being resolved, it's not going to help for the long-term solution of the recovery. What we need more is for the people is also the counselling. Like a trauma counselling,

Added from the military bombing into the earthquake, these communities are completely traumatized. In terms of the community to community or people to people help, you have to also see that there are certain areas not far from Sakai that were less impacted maybe, but also a lot of these things post-earthquake, the shifting of the earth and water will impact the crops, the plantations.

Our people's resilience is very strong. But also our people, because of these long military operations, people's creativity is also very good. They will find ways to help each other, but we need definitely help.

Growing things in Yangon or growing things in even Magway, in certain areas, like in Irrawaddy Delta, you see, there are areas with better soil where people are willing to plant their vegetables. But then what happens when the military bombs those areas?

That's why we need to be very strategic in dealing with the Myanmar crisis, with all these nuanced understanding of the deeper understanding of these sensitivity around. So first thing first, we need to stop the military violence, especially the airstrikes and artillery shelling everywhere. The second is we need the military violence.

not do the obstruction where the international community have to ensure if you're going to receive the aid from us, these are the things that we need to do. These are the things you need to do with us. We need to be there. I think that to ensure the good policing of the military's aid governance or distribution is the key.

In that way, the people can also find their self-sustainable solutions where the civil society and other goodwill private sectors will be able to do their job more effectively. Even the international aid, they send tens of millions of dollars. The reality is if they give it to the Myanmar military, it will remain to be the same as corrupted, manipulated, weaponized, and obstructed, just like what they've been doing forever.

This has been Kin Omar from Progressive Voice, Myanmar Human Rights Action Group. Thank you so much, Kin, for sharing your views and also, very importantly, for all the brave work you and your fellow communities are doing. We take a moment to acknowledge those that have suffered in Myanmar from the earthquake. We look to the new year with hope.

and promise, despite the fact that the junta continues to pull the country down more ways than one. Thank you. Thank you, Bridget. Thank you for listening to the episode. Subscribe to the show on your favorite podcast listening app. If you'd like to keep up to date on current Southeast Asian political affairs, just keep following. This is Bridget Welsh, and I look forward to connecting to you in the next episode. Straight Talk Southeast Asia is produced by Norman Chella, a.k.a. Norm, and you can find him at thatsthenorm.com.

Thanks so much for listening.