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cover of episode The Abraham Discords, Bloody Vicious Rocket, The Grand Old Duke Of Tariffs

The Abraham Discords, Bloody Vicious Rocket, The Grand Old Duke Of Tariffs

2025/5/15
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Multipolarity
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我分析了耶路撒冷邮报关于特朗普政府可能转向支持两国方案的报道，并探讨了该报道的可信度。虽然我对未经证实的泄露信息持谨慎态度，但我认为以色列媒体发布这一消息不符合其自身利益，这暗示着该消息可能并非空穴来风。如果消息来源是中东外交官，那很可能是海湾国家，因为他们愿意重返亚伯拉罕协议谈判桌，但前提是加沙问题得到可接受的解决，这实际上意味着两国方案。 自2023年10月7日冲突以来，局势的发展与预期大相径庭，加沙问题并未得到解决，反而持续恶化。以色列国防军坦诚表示，这场战争不会很快结束，但其预估的解决时间（6-18个月）也并未实现。加沙局势已陷入泥潭，需要持续供应小型武器和弹药。 美国与以色列的关系因加沙局势而紧张，尤其是在特朗普政府时期。美国政府希望制定一项类似于亚伯拉罕协议的中东政策战略，但以色列的行动却阻碍了这一目标的实现。如果以色列疏远保守派和特朗普的支持者，他们可能会很快失去所有朋友。 特朗普政府似乎希望从中东撤军，并与伊朗和沙特达成协议。但以色列似乎成为其计划的主要障碍，特朗普可能感到自己被内塔尼亚胡操纵。 美国在红海的航母损失了两架飞机，这可能是胡塞武装所为，这加剧了五角大楼内部对中东局势的担忧。关于与伊朗发生战争的讨论不断，伊朗导弹的破坏力也令人担忧。 总而言之，美国与以色列的关系日益紧张，中东局势复杂且难以预测，特朗普政府的策略似乎难以奏效。

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Rumors suggest the Trump administration is considering a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, potentially excluding Hamas. This shift is causing tensions in the US-Israel relationship, as Israel's current strategy is at odds with this approach. The situation in Gaza remains unresolved, adding complexity to the potential shift.
  • Trump administration considering a two-state solution
  • Tensions in US-Israel relationship
  • Unresolved situation in Gaza

Shownotes Transcript

More ordnance in the Middle East. Rumours are that Trump is agreeing to a two state solution; Israel is out in the cold; Netanyahu is not having his calls returned, and a trillion dollar deal is incoming with the Saudis. We’ve had shuttle diplomacy… but this is Challenger Space Shuttle diplomacy?

Meanwhile, Pakistan has apparently shot down as many as three Indian Rafale fighter jets in recent clashes over Kashmir. The culprit? A chinese-made BVR system. To some, this unexpected win apparently means that in the future, BVR-equipped jets will shoot each other down from tens or even hundreds of miles away. But past a certain point… why do we even need the jets? 

Finally, the eye-watering hundred percent tariffs on China are about to be peeled back down to a manageable thirty percent. A victory for someone. But in the longer term, isn’t this Liberation Day turning into De-dollarisation Year?

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