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cover of episode Gaurav Misra & Dwight Churchill - Building Captions - [Invest Like the Best, EP.405]

Gaurav Misra & Dwight Churchill - Building Captions - [Invest Like the Best, EP.405]

2025/1/7
logo of podcast Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

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Dwight Churchill
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Gaurav Misra
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Gaurav Misra: 我认为AI领域的重大突破在于能够训练越来越大的模型。这需要更好的硬件、更先进的机器学习架构(例如Transformer和扩散模型)以及更有效的训练技术。但归根结底,决定成败的是数据。对于像我们这样的视频生成和编辑公司来说,视频数据比文本或音频数据更难获得,也更昂贵。因此,建立一个可持续的数据飞轮至关重要,它能够不断地收集和利用数据来改进我们的模型,并保持我们的竞争优势。 此外,不同类型的AI公司之间存在根本性差异。那些致力于通用人工智能(AGI)的公司,目标是解决一个无限的问题,而我们专注于视频生成和编辑,解决的是一个相对有限的问题。这使得我们更容易建立一个可持续的商业模式。我们的模型改进主要依赖于持续不断地用更多的数据进行微调,以满足不同的使用场景和视觉效果需求。我们相信,随着模型的不断发展,视频生成技术将在18个月内达到好莱坞水准。 我们公司最初的成功源于一个简单的AI字幕应用,它迅速获得了大量用户。这让我们意识到,即使是简单的AI应用也能产生巨大的影响。我们从一开始就设计了一个数据飞轮,通过收集用户数据来改进模型,从而提供更好的用户体验,形成良性循环。随着时间的推移,我们不断扩展产品功能,覆盖从脚本创作到视频编辑和分发的整个视频制作流程。我们的AI工具包括AI Creator和AI Edit,分别用于视频创作和编辑,两者都非常受欢迎。 我们发现,通过扩展产品的应用场景,可以不断开拓新的市场,并且在一段时间内没有竞争对手。这导致了我们业务的快速增长。但我们也意识到,随着技术的不断发展,未来会有越来越多的竞争对手出现。因此,我们专注于提升模型的质量和用户体验,以保持我们的竞争优势。我们认为,目前我们只开发了视频生成应用的1%-5%,未来还有巨大的市场空间。 我们训练的视频模型是扩散模型,它从噪声开始,逐步去除噪声,最终生成清晰的图像。文本条件有助于模型确定最终图像的目标。视频模型比文本模型更容易优化,因为视频生成是一个相对有限的问题,而文本生成则涉及到无限的智能问题。 在未来,我们将能够生成人与物体互动的高保真视频。这需要收集更多人与物体互动的数据,并利用文本和图像条件来指导模型生成。随着视频生成技术的进步,高保真视频的成本会降低,这将改变视频的价值,并可能导致其他相关领域的价值变化,例如个人形象的价值。 我们公司已经经历过其他公司试图模仿甚至恶意竞争的阶段,但最终凭借更好的产品质量胜出。我们与社交媒体平台合作,为其提供高质量的原创视频内容。我们专注于自身的产品和技术发展,而不是一味地关注竞争对手。 构建顶尖AI产品不需要大型团队,少数优秀人才即可胜任。我们公司注重培养人才,并为他们提供充足的资源。AI软件的定价机制仍在发展中,目前消费者和企业对AI软件的付费意愿较高,但未来随着竞争加剧,价格可能会有所下降。我们相信,我们的商业模式最终将更像传统的软件公司,拥有较高的利润率,这得益于我们对模型训练成本的控制和数据飞轮的建立。 实现视频生成目标后,我们将继续探索AI技术在其他领域的应用,例如社交网络、影视制作和教育等。 Dwight Churchill: 在与竞争对手的竞争中,我们关注的重点不是技术本身,而是设计模式和用户体验的创新,从而重塑人们的工作方式。我们专注于为客户提供他们今天甚至都未曾预料到的功能,并将其商业化。我们通过有意识地细分市场,专注于沟通型视频的生成和编辑,而非其他类型的视频,从而在市场中占据优势。 我们已经经历过其他公司试图模仿甚至恶意竞争的阶段,但最终凭借更好的产品质量胜出。构建先进的AI产品不需要庞大的团队,少数几个优秀人才就能取得世界级的成果。我们公司注重培养人才,并为他们提供充足的资源,让他们能够专注于创新和突破。 关于AI软件的定价,我认为目前还处于早期阶段,难以预测最终的定价模式。但我们观察到,消费者和企业对AI软件的付费意愿都比较高。未来,随着技术的成熟和竞争的加剧,价格可能会下降。但高品质的、经过充分授权的模型仍然具有较高的价值。 投资者对AI的理解程度参差不齐,需要更多关注AI技术在不同行业的应用,以及AI工具在企业内部的应用。许多公司都在探索如何利用AI来提高效率或降低成本。我认为,在未来,那些拥有最佳模型并能够持续改进模型的公司将成为赢家。这需要持续的数据积累和对数据飞轮的有效利用。 supporting_evidences Gaurav Misra: 'I also want to call out here, like there's a pretty fundamental difference between different types of AI companies that are out there. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'But what is going to make those models better and better? (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'It has been a pretty interesting journey. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'That gives us significant advantage. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'It's interesting to think about because for the models that we train, they're diffusion models. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'You never know. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'I mean, it's definitely the most exciting that for anybody who's working on the engineering or product side, (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'When you think about us, we actually divide the product in two areas. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'I mean, I think the most interesting thing that I've seen is a lot of new companies popping up. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Dwight Churchill: 'And that's the really exciting stuff. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'We've actually niched down quite a bit on purpose because as you said, like video is huge. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'Yeah, I think that will happen within six months. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'How do you think the value of these things will change over time as the cost and frictions to create them falls? (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'I think we're kind of taking the unique angle on this generally, which is that we are training specifically on people. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Dwight Churchill: 'I'm really curious for like the sharper, rougher elbows part of building something so fast. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'Definitely. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Dwight Churchill: 'Can you talk through what you've learned about that, how it's changed? (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Dwight Churchill: 'It takes a few good people. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'I don't know if we completely understand it yet. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'I think the entire world of investors, VCs, growth equity investors, public investors, (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'It seems like this other category of more bounded problems have pretty normal, great business models. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'The way we think about it for our business specifically is that there is a bounded cost that actually solves this problem. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)' Gaurav Misra: 'So I think today we're really excited about accomplishing this particular mission, but I think the possibilities beyond that are practically endless.' Gaurav Misra: 'I mean, I think Snap had, as any company, a lot of good things and some bad things. (text after 1st sentence omitted in dots)'

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What distinguishes AI companies solving bounded problems like video generation from those tackling unbounded problems like general intelligence?

AI companies solving bounded problems, such as video generation, focus on rendering solved problems like CGI, making them more accessible and efficient. In contrast, companies tackling unbounded problems like general intelligence are solving an unsolved frontier, which may require continuous investment in larger models with no clear endpoint.

Why is video data particularly challenging for AI models compared to text or audio?

Video data is heavier, rarer, and more expensive to train on compared to text or audio. It requires significantly more storage and processing power, and there is less video data available globally, making it a unique challenge for AI models.

How does Captions' data flywheel contribute to improving its AI models?

Captions' data flywheel allows the company to continuously ingest and grow its video data, which is used to train better models. This creates a feedback loop where user-generated content improves the models, enabling the company to stay at the forefront of video generation and editing technology.

When could AI-generated video reach Hollywood-quality production?

AI-generated video could reach Hollywood-quality production within 18 months, driven by advancements in diffusion models and the scaling of parameters similar to the evolution of text models.

How does the training process for video models differ from text models?

Video models, particularly diffusion models, start from noise and gradually predict layers of clarity based on text conditioning. This is different from text models like GPT, which predict the next word based on previous context. Video models require significantly more computational resources due to the complexity and size of video data.

What are the key use cases for Captions' AI video editing and creation tools?

Captions' AI tools include AI Creator, which generates videos of people talking, and AI Edit, which automates video editing tasks. These tools are used for marketing, sales, education, and social media content creation, allowing users to produce high-quality videos without extensive editing knowledge.

How does the competitive landscape for AI video generation companies look?

The competitive landscape is intense, with many companies attempting to replicate Captions' success. However, Captions differentiates itself by focusing on A-roll video generation and building a data flywheel, which gives it a significant advantage in training foundation models for human-centric video content.

What are the potential pricing strategies for AI software applications in the future?

AI software applications may adopt a mix of subscription-based pricing and value-based pricing, depending on the use case. While consumer pricing is evolving towards higher subscription fees, B2B pricing may align more with the value of replacing labor costs or improving operational efficiency.

What lessons did Gaurav Misra and Dwight Churchill learn from their time at Snap?

From their time at Snap, they learned the importance of innovation, product-centric culture, and the CEO's intuition in driving success. They also gained insights into navigating highly competitive markets and the challenges of maintaining product-market fit in a rapidly evolving industry.

What is the kindest thing anyone has done for Gaurav Misra and Dwight Churchill?

For Gaurav, the kindest thing was his parents ensuring he was born in the U.S., which provided him with opportunities he wouldn't have had in India. For Dwight, it was his wife's support in enabling him to take risks and start Captions, which significantly impacted his career.

Shownotes Transcript

My guests today are Dwight Churchill) and Gaurav Misra), co-founders of Captions, which uses AI to generate and edit talking videos and has grown to significant scale at remarkable speed. We explore a key distinction in AI: tackling bounded problems like video generation versus unbounded problems like general intelligence and what this means for building sustainable businesses. We also explore their unique data flywheel, why video generation could reach Hollywood quality within 18 months, and why building advanced AI products doesn't require huge teams. Please enjoy this discussion with Dwight and Gaurav.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.)

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Show Notes:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best

(00:07:49) The Evolution and Impact of AI

(00:09:14) Challenges in Video Data and AI

(00:10:36) AI in Media Generation

(00:12:07) Building a Sustainable AI Business

(00:14:56) The Journey of a Video AI Company

(00:25:41) AI Video Editing and Creation Tools

(00:29:58) Future of AI in Video and Business

(00:37:51) The Future of Likeness in Video

(00:39:25) Training Models on Human Data

(00:41:15) Competitive Landscape and Copycats

(00:44:01) The Role of Research Talent

(00:46:25) Pricing AI Software

(00:51:51) Investor Perspectives on AI

(01:02:44) Lessons from Snap

(01:07:04) The Kindest Thing Anyone Has Done for Dwight & Gaurav