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Tal Zaks - Bridging Science, Medicine, and Returns - [Invest Like the Best, EP.406]
Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Deep Dive
Why does Tal Zaks believe that aligning scientific innovation with return on investment is crucial for medical progress?
Tal argues that while scientists are driven by a mission to improve human health, the significant financial investment required for research and development necessitates a return for investors. This ensures the sustainability of innovation and ultimately benefits society, particularly with the development of generic drugs that become widely accessible and affordable after the patent period.
What are the key differences between investing in biotech and investing in other tech sectors?
Biotech investments face two major unpredictable variables: biological risk (whether a target protein is truly involved in the disease) and pharmacological risk (whether a drug can effectively alter the protein's function, reach the target area, and be safe). These risks stem from the complexity and incomplete understanding of biological systems, unlike engineered systems where predictability is higher.
How does Moderna's personalized cancer vaccine work, and what were the results of the Phase 2 study?
The personalized cancer vaccine is designed for patients with early-stage cancer, like skin cancer, after surgical removal to reduce recurrence. It's based on the idea that each person's cancer and immune system are unique, so the vaccine is tailored to the individual. The Phase 2 study showed a 50% reduction in cancer recurrence in patients who received the personalized vaccine compared to standard care.
What are the three key phases in drug development, and how is AI impacting each phase?
The three phases are: 1) Target identification (determining if a protein is relevant to the disease), 2) Drug discovery (finding a molecule to alter the protein's function), and 3) Clinical development (testing the drug in humans). AI is making significant strides in drug discovery by predicting protein structures and identifying new chemical entities. However, clinical development still requires human trials as we lack a complete human model.
What are the key elements Tal considers when evaluating a biotech investment opportunity?
He focuses on the team's core thesis, the capital required to reach the next value inflection point, the likelihood of achieving that milestone, the experience and talent of the team, and the potential for his own expertise to contribute to the company's success.
Why does Tal Zaks emphasize the multidisciplinary nature of drug development?
Drug development requires a wide range of expertise, including physicians, biologists, engineers, and financial experts. Effective communication and collaboration across these disciplines are essential for success, overcoming the language barriers and siloed thinking that can hinder progress.
What factors contributed to the rapid development and deployment of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine?
Several factors were key: Moderna's prior experience with mRNA vaccines for other viruses, existing collaboration with the NIH, government support through Operation Warp Speed, private investment in manufacturing scale-up, and the use of modern technology to target clinical trial sites in pandemic hotspots.
What does Tal Zaks consider the biggest lesson learned from the public response to the COVID-19 vaccine?
The biggest lesson was the importance of building public trust and engaging in open dialogue. Scientists need to acknowledge the ethical and moral considerations surrounding medical interventions, respecting individual autonomy and addressing public concerns rather than solely relying on scientific authority.
What are nucleic acid medicines, and what is their potential for changing healthcare?
Nucleic acid medicines, including mRNA and siRNA, offer a platform-like approach to drug development, where changing the information encoded in the nucleic acid creates different drugs. This allows for faster and more cost-effective development of subsequent therapies. Gene therapy, a subset of this field, aims to cure genetic diseases by permanently correcting faulty genes.
How does Tal Zaks envision healthcare changing in the next 5, 10, and 20 years?
In 5 years, data collection and personalized interventions will become more prevalent. In 10 years, these insights will become institutionalized, changing the role of physicians into translators of complex medical information. In 20 years, healthcare experiences will be radically different, with a focus on maintaining health and early interventions.
What are the bear, base, and bull cases for the impact of AI on medicine?
Bear case: AI makes slow, piecemeal inroads in specific areas, hindered by economic incentives. Base case: Gradual integration of AI tools improves productivity and patient care. Bull case: System-wide integration of AI transforms healthcare, leading to personalized, preventative medicine and faster drug development.
What does Tal Zaks consider the kindest thing anyone has ever done for him?
The continued mentorship and support from Steve Rosenberg, who took Tal into his lab and encouraged his work, even when initial results were not promising. This support, spanning decades, ultimately contributed to Tal's success in developing the personalized cancer vaccine.
Shownotes Transcript