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cover of episode Bits + Bips: Why XRP Might Have Been The ‘Most Hated’ Rally Ever - Ep. 744

Bits + Bips: Why XRP Might Have Been The ‘Most Hated’ Rally Ever - Ep. 744

2024/12/4
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A
Alex Thorn
领导 Galaxy Digital 全公司研究部门,专注于加密货币和区块链生态系统研究。
J
James Seyffart
N
Noelle Acheson
R
Ram Ahluwalia
Topics
James Seyffart就特朗普政府的财政政策、利率和通货膨胀发表了看法,并讨论了市场对新任财政部长Scott Bessent的反应。他分析了市场对12月份降息的预期,并讨论了通货膨胀的持续性。他还讨论了美联储的政策以及经济数据对市场的影响。 Noelle Acheson对贝森特担任财政部长的任命表示赞赏,认为他可能是近20年来最令人印象深刻的财政部长之一。她还讨论了市场对利率和通货膨胀的预期,并认为美联储可能在12月份降息,尽管这可能是不必要的。 Ram Ahluwalia对贝森特的任命表示赞同,并认为他是一位理解市场和经济的杰出人物。他讨论了贝森特的3-3-3计划,并分析了其对经济增长的潜在影响。他还讨论了利率和通货膨胀,并表达了对再次通胀的担忧。 Alex Thorn对贝森特的任命表示赞赏,并指出市场预期特朗普政府不会大幅收紧财政政策或减少债务。他认为贝森特的任命增加了财政紧缩的可能性,并讨论了利率和通货膨胀对市场的影响。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why might the new Treasury Secretary be the right person for the job?

Besant is highly regarded for his understanding of markets and the economy, focusing on keeping oil prices down and increasing U.S. production to control inflation. His softer stance on tariffs and conventional approach to trade policies are seen as beneficial.

What are the market expectations for a December rate cut?

Markets are pricing a 76% chance of a rate cut in December, with expectations of only one cut between December and January. Inflation data shows stickiness, suggesting the last mile of inflation reduction could be challenging.

How has Operation Chokepoint 2.0 impacted the crypto industry?

Operation Chokepoint 2.0 has led to significant scrutiny and debanking of crypto and fintech companies, with hundreds affected. Regulators have discouraged banks from dealing with entire industries, creating a challenging environment for innovation and fair access to financial services.

What was the missed opportunity with Facebook’s Libra project?

Libra had the potential to advance U.S. dollar hegemony by integrating a stablecoin into social media, similar to how Tencent and WhatsApp use native currencies. The project was stifled by regulatory pressure, preventing a challenge to legacy payment rails and benefiting consumers and merchants.

What are the chances of stablecoin legislation passing in 2025?

There is a 35% chance of stablecoin legislation passing in 2025, with a higher likelihood in the second half of the year. The focus on other high-priority issues like taxes and immigration might delay the passage of crypto-related bills.

Why might Ryan Selkis be a good candidate for the role of Crypto Czar?

Ryan Selkis has clarity of vision on crypto policy and understands the need for a self-regulatory organization. His third-party perspective and ability to address objections make him a strong candidate for leading the crypto agenda and building consensus among stakeholders.

How has the conversation around Bitcoin changed during Thanksgiving?

Thanksgiving conversations have seen an increase in discussions about Bitcoin, with more people inquiring about it unprompted. This reflects a growing interest in digital assets among a broader audience, though it’s still not a mainstream topic for most.

Is the XRP rally a negative indicator for the market?

The XRP rally, dubbed the 'most hated rally in crypto,' is seen by some as a negative indicator, as it involves coins that have been out of favor for years and are rallying without significant institutional support. This could signal a speculative phase in the market cycle.

What is James Seyffart's view on the approval of an XRP ETF?

James Seyffart believes it's likely that an XRP ETF will be approved, but the process could take until the back half of 2025. He notes that the SEC's division of enforcement has lawsuits against exchanges involving assets like Solana, creating a potential roadblock for ETF approvals.

Why might Ethereum see an increase in its ETH/BTC ratio?

Ethereum could see an increase in its ETH/BTC ratio due to potential regulatory clarity under a new SEC regime, which might integrate DeFi with TradFi. This could benefit Ethereum and other similar blockchains, driving up the ETH/BTC ratio as institutional adoption grows.

Shownotes Transcript

In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Noelle Acheson, and Ram Ahluwalia are joined by Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, to discuss the surprising mainstream buzz around XRP’s latest rally, dubbed the “most hated rally in crypto.” 

They also analyze the new Treasury Secretary’s ambitious economic plan and what it could mean for inflation, fiscal discipline, and market stability. Meanwhile, Ethereum struggles to reclaim its narrative as the go-to blockchain, even as its ETH/BTC ratio shows signs of life.

And in a moment that captures the personal side of crypto’s rise, the team reflects on Thanksgiving table conversations, where bitcoin and digital assets became unexpected stars. 

Show highlights:

  • Why the newly appointed Treasury Secretary might be the right person for the job

  • Whether the December rates cut is unnecessary

  • How Marc Andreessen brought Operation Chokepoint 2.0 to the spotlight

  • How Facebook’s project Libra would have benefited the US Dollar hegemony

  • Whether the U.S. Congress will pass stablecoin legislation in 2025

  • Why Ram believes Ryan Selkis would be a good Crypto Czar

  • How people have been asking more about bitcoin during Thanksgiving

  • Whether the XRP rally is a negative indicator

  • What James thinks about the filings for news ETFs, such as WisdomTree’s XRP

  • Why Alex thinks that ETH could continue its recent rally

  • The impact of MicroStrategy being added to the Nasdaq-100, aka the QQQ ETF

Hosts:

- James Seyffart), Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence

- Ram Ahluwalia), CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida

- Noelle Acheson), Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter 

Guest:

- Alex Thorn), Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital

Links

Politics

  • Unchained:

 

Trump Taps Hedge Fund Manager Scott Bessent to Be Treasury Secretary)

The Trump-Connected Brad Bondi Is A New SEC Chair Contender and Pro-Crypto)

Macro

Operation Chokepoint 2.0

Marc Andreessen and the CFPB: Debunking the Debanking Debunkers) by Nic Carter

XRP

  • Unchained:

 

XRP Becomes the Top Traded Token on Binance and Coinbase, Hits Almost 7-Year High)

XRP Rallies 70% in a Week to Top Solana, Tether Market Cap)

Ethereum

** Timestamps:**

  • 00:00 Intro

  • 02:15 Why the new Treasury Secretary could reshape the economy

  • 06:28 Is a December rate cut unnecessary?

  • 15:18 How Marc Andreessen spotlighted Operation Chokepoint 2.0

  • 19:54 The missed opportunity of Facebook’s Libra for USD dominance

  • 26:48 Will stablecoin legislation finally pass in 2025?

  • 31:28 Why Ram thinks Ryan Selkis should be the “Crypto Czar”

  • 34:45 Bitcoin conversations taking over Thanksgiving dinner

  • 39:48 Is the XRP rally a red flag for the market?

  • 48:15 James’s take on new ETF filings like WisdomTree’s XRP

  • 55:48 Why Alex believes ETH could extend its recent gains

  • 1:01:37 What MicroStrategy’s NASDAQ addition means for crypto

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