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cover of episode Bits + Bips: Will Rate Cuts and Trump's Policies Spark a Bitcoin Supercycle? - Ep. 737

Bits + Bips: Will Rate Cuts and Trump's Policies Spark a Bitcoin Supercycle? - Ep. 737

2024/11/20
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James Seyffart认为特朗普政府对加密货币的态度将与拜登政府截然不同,这将对加密货币市场产生重大影响。他认为,与拜登政府相比,特朗普政府更可能采取积极的监管措施,这将推动加密货币市场上涨。 Alex Kruger认为特朗普与Coinbase首席执行官Brian Armstrong会面,以及可能收购Bakkt的消息,表明特朗普政府对加密货币的重视程度。他认为,这将对加密货币市场产生积极影响,并可能导致价格进一步上涨。 David Grider认为,最近几周加密货币价格上涨,部分原因是监管方面出现了转变和风险降低。他认为,特朗普政府对加密货币的积极态度以及共和党在选举中获胜,将对加密货币市场产生积极影响,并可能导致价格进一步上涨。他还分析了不同财政部长候选人对加密货币市场的影响,认为Howard Ludnick对加密货币最为积极。 Alex Kruger认为市场对特朗普可能损害经济的担忧,可能更多地反映了政治偏见而非客观分析。他认为,特朗普的关税政策可能不像人们想象的那么糟糕,而大规模驱逐出境则会对经济产生负面影响。他还分析了美联储可能根据特朗普的政策调整其利率模式,并讨论了美国财政部一般账户(TGA)减少对市场流动性的影响。 他认为,黄金价格下跌是美元走强导致的,而特朗普的政策对美元有利。他还分析了比特币、以太坊和Solana的价格走势,并预测了未来市场走势。他认为,市场对12月份是否降息存在分歧,预计明年年底前将降息三次。他还讨论了美国财政部一般账户(TGA)减少对市场流动性的影响,以及美联储可能在明年第一季度末或第二季度初停止缩表对全球流动性的影响。 David Grider认为,Michael Saylor对比特币市场的近期上涨贡献了多少比例尚不明确。他还分析了MicroStrategy的融资方式,认为这表明市场对这些结构有很强的需求,这最终会流入加密货币和比特币。 他还讨论了美联储可能根据特朗普的政策调整其利率模式,并分析了关税和驱逐出境对经济的影响。他认为,以太坊相对于比特币的投资表现不佳,但未来可能会有所改善。他还分析了Blob space的需求增加可能导致以太坊交易费用增加,从而吸引更多投资。他还讨论了EigenLayer等共享安全平台将推动去中心化应用的发展,以及美国以太坊ETF允许进行质押将增加对ETF的需求。他还分析了未来加密货币监管的变化,以及对不同类型加密货币项目的影响。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

Bitcoin and SOL are flirting with all time highs, Ethereum is lagging behind, and the next six months could define the trajectory of crypto markets. 

In this episode of Bits + Bips, James Seyffart, Alex Kruger, and guest David Grider unravel the key stories driving the space: What could a meeting between Trump and Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong mean for crypto policy? Could a new Treasury Secretary pick become the industry’s biggest ally? And is Ethereum’s underperformance hiding a major comeback?

Plus, what crypto categories might be winners in the near future.

Show highlights:

What the potential meeting of Trump with Brian Armstrong shows

  • Which pick for the Treasury Secretary position would be most positive for crypto

  • Whether Michael Saylor has been driving the bitcoin market

  • Whether rate cuts are coming in December and what impact it’s having on the markets

  • How tariffs are not as bad as people think, but massive deportation is, according to Alex

  • Why a potential Treasury General Account (TGA) rundown would be bullish for the markets

  • Whether traders will be taking profits at the $90,000 bitcoin level

  • How ETH has been underperforming and why David sees a silver lining

  • How the lack of institutional interest in ETH has changed dramatically since the election

  • Why David is so optimistic about restaking across different ecosystems

  • What the outlook for crypto regulation looks like in the near future and what will benefit the industry

  • Why James believes that we’ll have in-kind creations and redemptions for bitcoin ETFs under new SEC leadership

  • What the future trajectory of bitcoin’s price is and the role of a strategic bitcoin reserve

  • How different categories within crypto will perform in the markets

Hosts:

- James Seyffart), Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence

- Alex Kruger), Founder of Asgard

Guest:

- David Grider), Partner at Finality Capital

Links

Trump and politics:

  • Unchained:

 

Donald Trump to Meet Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong: Report)

Truth Social in Talks to Acquire Crypto Platform Bakkt)

Who Might Trump Pick for S.E.C. Chair? This Is Who Jay Clayton Hopes to See)

The Trump-Connected Brad Bondi Is a New SEC Chair Contender and Pro-Crypto)

A Degen Administration? Why the Crypto Czar May Be Allowed to Own Tokens)

Markets:

  • Unchained:

 

Spot Ether ETFs See Record $515 Million Weekly Inflows)

Solana dApps See Massive Fees Amid Memecoin Frenzy)

Bitcoin ETF options:

  • Unchained:

 

Bitcoin Hits New All Time High as IBIT’s First-Day Volume Nears $1.9 Billion )

Why Bitcoin ETF Options Could Unlock Massive Amounts of Capital for Crypto)

Timestamps:

  • 00:00 Intro

  • 02:31 What a Trump-Brian Armstrong meeting means for crypto

  • 07:36 Who could be crypto’s biggest ally as Treasury Secretary

  • 12:43 Is Michael Saylor driving bitcoin’s rally?

  • 14:46 Whether December rate cuts will shake the markets

  • 19:33 Tariffs vs. deportation: What’s worse for crypto?

  • 26:03 Whether a Treasury General Account rundown would be bullish for markets

  • 30:19 Whether traders will take profits at $90K Bitcoin

  • 35:50 Why ether’s underperformance might hide a comeback

  • 47:15 Whether institutional interest in ETH has turned around

  • 51:49 Why David is bullish on restaking across ecosystems

  • 54:09 What’s next for crypto regulation and industry growth

  • 1:06:55 Whether new SEC leadership would greenlight better bitcoin ETF structures

  • 1:09:10 Whether strategic Bitcoin reserves could drive its price higher

  • 1:17:25 Which crypto categories could lead the next rally

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