cover of episode Chips: Liberated? Trump’s Semis Tariff Gambit

Chips: Liberated? Trump’s Semis Tariff Gambit

2025/4/20
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This chapter analyzes the four potential motivations behind Trump's semiconductor tariffs: revenge, negotiation leverage, revenue generation, and onshoring manufacturing. It highlights the inconsistencies between these goals and the potential negative economic consequences, particularly the disproportionate impact on poorer populations.
  • Four potential motivations behind Trump's semiconductor tariffs: revenge, negotiation, revenue, and onshoring.
  • Inconsistencies between these goals.
  • Disproportionate impact on poorer populations.

Shownotes Transcript

Bill Reinsch of CSIS and the *Trade Guys *podcast with Jay Goldberg of Digits and Dollars and the Circuit podcast join to dicuss Trump's tariff impact on semis on another CSIS-ChinaTalk Chip Chat!

Bill lays out the four clashing instincts driving policy in MAGA 2.0: revenge for decades of perceived slights, a bargaining bluff to coerce concessions, a fast‑cash revenue grab, and a fantasy of instant on‑shore fab construction.

Jay walks through the on‑the‑ground fallout: chip designers worrying about losing China sales, GPU‑specific duties warping supply chains, and a loophole that lets boards assembled in Mexico skate by.

We explore how blanket tariffs could accelerate China’s ascent in analog and trailing‑edge chips, undermine Biden‑era “ally‑first” export‑control diplomacy, and leave Commerce’s BIS badly under‑resourced to enforce the rules.

We also get into whether allies will sign up for Washington’s crusade after being slapped themselves, and whether Nvidia, Intel, and Tesla are “too important to punish.”

Outtro Music: Well Get It, Tommy Dorsey

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgiHzCiB5Aw

Bible‑Verse Sign‑off “Plans fail for lack of counsel, but with many advisers they succeed.” — Proverbs 15:22

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