The two major types of uncertainty are aleatory uncertainty, which refers to unpredictability in the world, and epistemic uncertainty, which is the human response to the unknown or ambiguous situations.
Uncertainty powers good judgment, cognitive flexibility, creativity, curiosity, and resilience. It is essential for adaptability and mental well-being, acting as a catalyst for learning and performance.
Uncertainty triggers a stress response, but it is a form of 'good stress' that enhances working memory, attention, and receptivity to new data. This arousal is distinct from fear, which leads to a shutdown response rather than performance enhancement.
AI leaders see uncertainty as crucial for creating AI systems that are more transparent, honest, and aligned with human needs. Unsure AI, which admits to being uncertain, is seen as more intelligent, cooperative, and effective in dynamic environments.
Uncertainty fosters superior teamwork by encouraging open-mindedness, curiosity, and the exploration of diverse perspectives. Disagreement, when handled respectfully, can enhance group performance by sparking uncertainty and deepening understanding.
Tolerance of uncertainty refers to the ability to handle ambiguity without feeling threatened. Those who are tolerant are more flexible, curious, and resilient, making it a key trait for managing anxiety and improving mental health.
Practices include delegating tasks, trying new experiences, and engaging in activities that introduce controlled uncertainty, such as swimming in unpredictable environments. These actions help build tolerance and skill in navigating uncertainty.
Uncertainty is a catalyst for creativity, as it encourages exploration, questioning, and the discovery of new possibilities. It allows for the exploration of hidden profiles of information and fosters innovative thinking.
Digital living often undermines uncertainty by promoting quick, sure answers and instant gratification. This can lead to overconfidence and a loss of the ability to recognize what we don't know, which is crucial for effective problem-solving and learning.
Unsure AI reflects a shift towards more transparent and honest AI systems that admit uncertainty. This approach not only enhances AI's performance but also serves as a model for humans to embrace uncertainty in their own decision-making processes.
Award-winning author Maggie Jackson joins us to discuss her latest book “Uncertain: The Wisdom and Wonder of Being Unsure.”
In an era of terrifying unpredictability, the swift, sure answer often seems right. We race to address precarity and complexity with neat algorithms, crisp bullet points, or hurried tweets. Who has time to dally in the wilderness of being unsure? How could we find the clarity and vision so urgently needed today by not-knowing? This book is about the unsung triumph of doing just that.
Far from luring us into inertia or defeat, uncertainty powers good judgement, cognitive flexibility, creativity, curiosity, and even resilience. A state of mind critical to human achievement yet until recently little understood, uncertainty is the portal to finding the humanity in your enemies, the lynchpin of superior teamwork, and the mindset most needed in times of flux.
A scientific adventure tale set on the front lines of a volatile era, this book explores uncertainty's positive role in the life of the mind and in contemporary society. What is a good daydream? Why is being unsure now seen as a healthy form of stress? Why do AI's top leaders see uncertainty as the key to keeping humanity safe from increasingly unstoppable AI?
By learning to wield uncertainty with skill and care, we can recapture realms of good thinking sidelined in an era of push-button thought. We can discover all that the human mind can do at the peak of its powers in the most difficult predicaments, and learn how uncertainty is not weakness, but wisdom.
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