cover of episode Ep504 - Maggie Jackson | Uncertain: The Wisdom and Wonder of Being Unsure

Ep504 - Maggie Jackson | Uncertain: The Wisdom and Wonder of Being Unsure

2024/12/3
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Kyle: 本期节目讨论了Maggie Jackson的新书《不确定性:不确定性的智慧与奇迹》,探讨了在充满不确定性的时代,如何看待和利用不确定性。节目中,主持人和嘉宾就如何定义不确定性,不确定性的神经科学基础,不确定性在数字时代的影响,以及不确定性在工作场所和团队中的作用等方面进行了深入探讨。 Maggie Jackson: 书中探讨了两种主要的不确定性:偶然性不确定性和认知性不确定性。认知性不确定性是人们对未知事物的反应,它并非总是消极的,反而可以增强工作记忆,提高大脑对新数据的接受能力,并增强注意力。不确定性是好奇心和适应性的关键,也是创造力和心理健康的基础。在数字时代,人们容易过度依赖信息技术,忽视了不确定性在思维和记忆中的作用。新的研究表明,不确定性可以促进团队合作和创新,因为分歧可以激发好奇心和质疑,从而提升团队绩效。 Maggie Jackson: 人们天生厌恶不确定性,但过度回避不确定性是有害的。通过学习如何巧妙地运用不确定性,并提高对不确定性的容忍度,可以应对挑战和提升韧性。一些简单的策略,例如减少对结果的过度关注,使用“也许”等词语来表达不确定性,以及在工作中进行更多委托,都可以帮助人们更好地应对不确定性。此外,一些人工智能领域的领导者正在推动开发“不确定的人工智能”,以提高人工智能的安全性和合作性。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What are the two major types of uncertainty?

The two major types of uncertainty are aleatory uncertainty, which refers to unpredictability in the world, and epistemic uncertainty, which is the human response to the unknown or ambiguous situations.

Why is uncertainty considered a positive force in human cognition?

Uncertainty powers good judgment, cognitive flexibility, creativity, curiosity, and resilience. It is essential for adaptability and mental well-being, acting as a catalyst for learning and performance.

How does uncertainty relate to anxiety, and what is the neuroscience behind it?

Uncertainty triggers a stress response, but it is a form of 'good stress' that enhances working memory, attention, and receptivity to new data. This arousal is distinct from fear, which leads to a shutdown response rather than performance enhancement.

Why do top AI leaders advocate for uncertainty in AI systems?

AI leaders see uncertainty as crucial for creating AI systems that are more transparent, honest, and aligned with human needs. Unsure AI, which admits to being uncertain, is seen as more intelligent, cooperative, and effective in dynamic environments.

How does uncertainty impact teamwork and collaboration?

Uncertainty fosters superior teamwork by encouraging open-mindedness, curiosity, and the exploration of diverse perspectives. Disagreement, when handled respectfully, can enhance group performance by sparking uncertainty and deepening understanding.

What is the concept of 'tolerance of uncertainty,' and why is it important?

Tolerance of uncertainty refers to the ability to handle ambiguity without feeling threatened. Those who are tolerant are more flexible, curious, and resilient, making it a key trait for managing anxiety and improving mental health.

How can individuals practice embracing uncertainty in their daily lives?

Practices include delegating tasks, trying new experiences, and engaging in activities that introduce controlled uncertainty, such as swimming in unpredictable environments. These actions help build tolerance and skill in navigating uncertainty.

What role does uncertainty play in creativity and problem-solving?

Uncertainty is a catalyst for creativity, as it encourages exploration, questioning, and the discovery of new possibilities. It allows for the exploration of hidden profiles of information and fosters innovative thinking.

How does digital living impact our ability to handle uncertainty?

Digital living often undermines uncertainty by promoting quick, sure answers and instant gratification. This can lead to overconfidence and a loss of the ability to recognize what we don't know, which is crucial for effective problem-solving and learning.

What is the significance of 'unsure AI' in the context of digital living?

Unsure AI reflects a shift towards more transparent and honest AI systems that admit uncertainty. This approach not only enhances AI's performance but also serves as a model for humans to embrace uncertainty in their own decision-making processes.

Chapters
This chapter introduces the concept of uncertainty, differentiating between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. It highlights the often-overlooked positive aspects of uncertainty, such as its role in good judgment, creativity, and resilience. The chapter also sets the stage for a discussion on the book's central theme: the importance of embracing uncertainty.
  • Uncertainty is often seen negatively, but it has two major types: aleatory (unpredictability of the world) and epistemic (human response to the unknown).
  • Uncertainty is crucial for good judgment, cognitive flexibility, creativity, curiosity, and resilience.
  • The book explores uncertainty's positive role in life and contemporary society.

Shownotes Transcript

Award-winning author Maggie Jackson joins us to discuss her latest book “Uncertain: The Wisdom and Wonder of Being Unsure.”

In an era of terrifying unpredictability, the swift, sure answer often seems right. We race to address precarity and complexity with neat algorithms, crisp bullet points, or hurried tweets. Who has time to dally in the wilderness of being unsure? How could we find the clarity and vision so urgently needed today by not-knowing? This book is about the unsung triumph of doing just that.

Far from luring us into inertia or defeat, uncertainty powers good judgement, cognitive flexibility, creativity, curiosity, and even resilience. A state of mind critical to human achievement yet until recently little understood, uncertainty is the portal to finding the humanity in your enemies, the lynchpin of superior teamwork, and the mindset most needed in times of flux.

A scientific adventure tale set on the front lines of a volatile era, this book explores uncertainty's positive role in the life of the mind and in contemporary society. What is a good daydream? Why is being unsure now seen as a healthy form of stress? Why do AI's top leaders see uncertainty as the key to keeping humanity safe from increasingly unstoppable AI?

By learning to wield uncertainty with skill and care, we can recapture realms of good thinking sidelined in an era of push-button thought. We can discover all that the human mind can do at the peak of its powers in the most difficult predicaments, and learn how uncertainty is not weakness, but wisdom.

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