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cover of episode Episode 746 | 9 Startup Predictions for 2025

Episode 746 | 9 Startup Predictions for 2025

2024/12/31
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Startups For the Rest of Us

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Rob Walling: 2025年,Twitter将易手,可能是债务到期或恶意收购。无代码和低代码工具将获得单元测试和版本控制,这将为创业者带来机会。Stripe将在2025年上市。 基于内容的关键词SEO的搜索量将下降至少15%,因为AI搜索的兴起,这将对依赖这种方式的创业公司产生影响。AI聊天界面中的广告将变得普遍,这将是新的盈利模式。谷歌的收入将因这一转变而出现最大跌幅,但最终会找到应对方法。 "AI"一词在标题中的使用频率将下降,因为它将成为默认设置。自动驾驶出租车将在允许其运营的任何地方迅速成为常态,这将带来安全性和效率的提升,但也可能带来社会影响。平台风险将加剧,创业者需要意识到平台依赖的风险,并谨慎选择平台。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why does Rob Walling predict that Twitter will change hands in 2025?

Rob Walling believes Twitter will change hands in 2025 due to its low valuation, potential debt issues, or a hostile takeover. He considers it inevitable given the current circumstances.

What is the predicted impact of AI on Google's organic SEO search volume in 2025?

Rob Walling predicts that search volume for Google organic SEO will decline by at least 15% in 2025, potentially up to 25%, as AI searches become more prevalent and provide accurate, zero-click answers.

Why will ads in AI chat interfaces like ChatGPT become commonplace in 2025?

Ads in AI chat interfaces will become commonplace because these free platforms need to monetize as user behavior shifts away from traditional search engines. Marketers will experiment with various ad formats, including text, display, and embedded suggestions.

What is the predicted impact of AI on Google's revenue in 2025?

Rob Walling predicts that Google will experience its biggest-ever revenue drop in 2025 due to the transition from traditional search (10 blue links) to AI-driven search, which disrupts its dominant online advertising model.

Why will the term 'AI' be used less frequently in startup H1s by 2025?

The term 'AI' will be used less frequently in startup H1s because AI will become ubiquitous and assumed to be integrated into every product, making it unnecessary to explicitly mention it.

What makes self-driving taxis a significant prediction for 2025?

Self-driving taxis are predicted to become the norm in areas where they are allowed due to their safety, convenience, and efficiency. They are estimated to reduce traffic-related deaths by 90-94%, making them a transformative technology.

Why will platform risk intensify for bootstrapped founders in 2025?

Platform risk will intensify in 2025 due to the increasing dominance of monopolistic platforms like Shopify, Facebook, and Reddit. Bootstrapped founders will face challenges with platform dependence, including API access cuts or feature competition from the platforms themselves.

Chapters
This chapter discusses Rob Walling's predictions for 2025, starting with three predictions carried over from 2024: Twitter changing hands, no-code/low-code tools gaining unit tests and version control, and Stripe going public. He acknowledges the uncertainty inherent in predictions.
  • Prediction: Twitter will change hands in 2025 due to debt or hostile takeover.
  • Prediction: No-code/low-code tools will adopt unit tests and version control, creating startup opportunities.
  • Prediction: Stripe will go public in 2025.

Shownotes Transcript

In episode 746, Rob Walling looks ahead to 2025 with nine startup predictions, exploring trends in no-code tools, search, autonomous vehicles, AI, and an increase in platform risk for bootstrapped founders.

**Topics we cover: **

  • (1:52) – Carrying forward predictions from 2024

  • (3:09) – Search volume for Google organic SEO 

  • (6:34) – Ads in AI interfaces

  • (7:50) – Google’s revenue drops, bootstrapper opportunities

  • (10:07) – “AI” use in  H1’s 

  • (14:01) – Self-driving taxis

  • (19:28) – Platform risk intensifies

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