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cover of episode Bracing for Fed's upcoming decision

Bracing for Fed's upcoming decision

2025/5/5
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Wall Street Breakfast

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Rena Sherbel
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我今天报道的主要新闻包括:投资者正在关注美联储即将做出的利率决定;台湾元汇率飙升;以及泰森食品未提及关税或经济压力。股市期货下跌,十年期国债收益率持平,两年期国债收益率下降。美中贸易关系缓和以及强于预期的就业报告提振了市场情绪。美联储将在周三公布利率决定,市场普遍预期将维持当前利率不变。尽管4月份的初步就业数据显示经济实力合理,但一些领域的就业增长(例如卡车运输业)由于进口量下降而明显脆弱。特朗普宣布对所有在美国境外制作的电影征收100%的关税,台湾元兑美元汇率两天内上涨8%,这表明在2020年贸易动荡的背景下,投资者对美元的需求正在减弱。特朗普4月2日宣布对台湾商品征收32%的关税,贸易对台湾至关重要。台湾元升值使台湾产品对美国进口商而言更昂贵,但使美国对台湾的出口更便宜。全球投资者正在寻求美元以外的货币,台湾元兑美元汇率在过去一个月上涨了23%。台湾元升值是在美台贸易谈判结束后发生的,台湾央行表示,美国没有施压台湾提高其货币的价值,而是将其归因于外国资金流入和企业对台湾元升值的预期。市场认为热钱流入台湾,央行允许这种情况发生,这可能是由于美国的压力。在贸易动荡的背景下,台湾股市表现强劲,iShares MSCI 台湾ETF (EWT) 在过去一个月上涨了5.1%。泰森食品公布了强劲的季度业绩,但未提及关税或经济压力。巴菲特宣布辞去伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官职务。油价下跌,沙特威胁进一步增产,Palantir和福特等公司今日公布业绩。

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Good morning. Today is Monday, May 5th, and I'm Rena Sherbel filling in for Julie Morgan. Our

Our top stories today. Investors brace for Fed's upcoming decision, Taiwan dollar surges and Tyson Foods skips mention of tariff pressures. Our top story today. Stock index futures were in the red on Monday as investors turned their focus to the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision slated to come this week.

S&P 500 futures are down 0.9%, NASDAQ 100 futures also down 0.9%, and Dow futures down 0.7%. The 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.3%, and the two-year fell two basis points to 3.8%. Wall Street on Friday posted its longest daily win streak in over two decades.

further signs of thawing on trade between the U.S. and China, along with a stronger-than-expected jobs report buoyed sentiment. The Fed will release its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The decision comes at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump has been urging for lower rates. Trump had, however, said he doesn't have any intention of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, even as he continues to publicly criticize Powell over interest rate policy.

The Fed is widely expected to maintain current interest rates during its policy meeting this week in Washington. As investors await Wednesday's policy decision by the Fed, there is little expectation of a rate change. Preliminary April employment data showed reasonable strength, although some areas of job growth, for example trucking, are clearly vulnerable as import volumes slow. So said UBS's Paul Donovan.

On tariffs, Trump announced a sweeping 100% tariff on all movies produced outside the U.S., citing the need to protect a dying American film industry. The Taiwan dollar jumped 8% against the U.S. dollar in two days, an unprecedented surge and another sign that investor demand for the U.S. dollar is weakening amid the trade turmoil triggered by 2020.

by tariffs President Trump announced on April 2nd. Trade, of course, is crucial to Taiwan, the dominant exporter of high-end computer chips to both China and the U.S. A stronger Taiwan dollar makes the island's products more expensive for U.S. importers, but makes U.S. exports to Taiwan less expensive. On April 2nd, Trump announced a 32% tariff on Taiwanese goods.

At the same time, global investors are looking to other currencies as an alternative to the U.S. dollar, the global reserve currency that has long been seen as a so-called safe haven. In the past month, the Taiwan dollar has climbed 23 percent against the U.S. dollar.

the U.S. dollar. The move in the Taiwan dollar followed the end of trade talks between the U.S. and Taiwan, Reuters reported. The sudden strength is seen as occurring with the tacit approval of its central bank, the report said. Taiwan's central bank said on Monday that the U.S. hasn't pressured Taiwan to boost the value of its dollar. Rather, it attributed the volatility to foreign fund inflows and companies' expectations of a stronger Taiwan dollar or

according to the Reuters report. The markets, however, see it differently. Hot money is coming into Taiwan and the central bank is allowing it, one Taiwanese financial industry executive told Reuters. Many are saying that's due to pressure from the U.S. I would say that must be the case.

In another sign of Taiwan strengthening amid the trade turmoil, the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF, EWT, gained 5.1% in the past month compared with the S&P 500's 0.3% increase.

Tyson Foods said it delivered another solid quarter with growth in both sales and adjusted operating income driven by strong execution across the business. The company highlighted that its consistent focus on operational excellence, winning with customer and consumers, leveraging data and digital, and enhancing its financial strength has now resulted in four consecutive quarters of year-over-year improvements in the company's top and adjusted bottom lines.

Notably, Tyson Foods did not mention tariffs or economic pressures with its earnings update. Capital expenditures were noted to include investments in profit improvement projects as well as projects for maintenance and repair. Shares of Tyson Foods fell 2.3% in pre-market action. In other news, as we mentioned on Wall Street Brunch yesterday, big announcement shook the financial world over the weekend as investing legend Warren Buffett announced he would step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

Oil fell on OPEC Plus output boost. Saudis threaten more hikes. And companies reporting today include Palantir and Ford.

Thanks so much for listening and have a great week. That's all for today's Wall Street Lunch. Look for links for stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at SeekingAlpha.com slash WSB. And join the highest level discussion of any stock or ETF with our community of serious investors like you. Find us at SeekingAlpha.com slash subscriptions.