Mideast events will shape Fed week
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Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch, our Sunday look-ahead to this week's market-moving events, along with the weekend's top news and analysis. Hello, today is Sunday, June 15th, and I'm your host, Kim Kahn.

Wall Street will find itself in the grasp of geopolitics in a holiday-shortened week that also features the Fed. The markets will be closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth federal holiday. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran will hold sway over an edgy market. Over the weekend, Israel said it was striking military targets in Tehran and advised Iranians to evacuate weapons factories. Iran also launched more missiles against Israel.

President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that there will be peace between Israel and Iran soon as he shepherds a deal, referencing a deal between India and Pakistan that he says was made using trade with the U.S. Likewise, we will have peace soon between Israel and Iran. Many calls and meetings now taking place, he said. In addition, Trump told ABC News that it's possible we could get involved in the conflict and said he would be open to Russian President Vladimir Putin being a mediator in the conflict.

He is ready. He called me about it. We had a long talk about it, Trump said. For equities, there is scope for cautious optimism for bulls after stocks in Israel ended higher on Sunday. The TA35 rose half a percent.

But the spotlight will be on oil after its biggest rise in three years on Friday. Apollo chief economist Torsten Slocke says, According to the Fed's model of the U.S. economy, a sustained $10 increase in oil prices is expected to increase inflation by 0.4% and lower GDP by 0.4%. WTI crude is currently up more than $10 from its lows at the end of May.

In short, higher oil prices exacerbate the ongoing stagflation shock stemming from tariffs and immigration restrictions, Slock said. Stagflation is a problem for the FOMC. Higher inflation says the Fed should be hiking. Lower GDP growth says the Fed should be cutting. So will the FOMC put more weight on the upward pressure on inflation or more weight on the coming slowdown in growth?

The Fed will deliver its fourth interest rate decision of the year on Wednesday, and markets are pricing in a virtual certainty of no move. The spotlight will be on the updated economic projections, the first since the Liberation Day tariffs, and Chairman Jay Powell's press conference.

Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adams says the Fed's job is about to get more complex. Much of the current economic data and corporate earnings were reported before the latest tariffs took effect, meaning the full impact is yet to be felt, he said. Since tariffs tend to slow growth while pushing prices higher, Fed policymakers could soon face tough tradeoffs between supporting the economy and keeping inflation in check.

On top of that, they'll need to consider the potential effects of the proposed One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which could include new stimulus measures like tax cuts, he added. Viktor Derganov, leader of the Financial Profit Investing Group on Seeking Alpha, says there seems to be a massive debate whether the Fed is asleep at the wheel right now or not. On the one hand, some inflation readings remain above 2%, and we've seen a recent pop in oil and other commodity prices.

On the other hand, rates are relatively high, the economy is slowing, and we could see more softness in the labor market and other key data as we advance. Also, the recent risk-outset rally was likely supported by the expectations of a more accessible interest rate policy. In other macro events, May retail sales arrive on Tuesday, housing starts and building permits are on the docket for Wednesday.

On the earnings calendar, Lennar reports Monday. On Tuesday, J. Bill Circuit issues numbers. Accenture, Kroger, and CarMax weigh in on Friday.

For income investors, Meta Platforms, UnitedHealth Group, Merck, and dividend aristocrat Altria Group all go ex-dividend on Monday. Meta pays out on June 26th, UnitedHealth pays out on June 24th, while Merck has a July 8th payout date and Altria pays out July 10th. Salesforce, Lamb Research, and Best Buy go ex-dividend on Wednesday. Salesforce and Best Buy pay out on July 10th, and Lamb Research has a July 9th payout date, and Broadcom goes ex-dividend on Friday, paying out on June 30th.

And in the Wall Street Research Corner, Morgan Stanley's global banks and asset managers, along with management consulting firm Oliver Wyman, selected their top banking stock ideas in what they call the emergence of a multipolar world.

The evolving implications of the administration's trade and tariff policies has challenged the assumptions that the U.S. would pursue a growth agenda reinforcing the existing world order, analysts said. But, despite the potential shifts towards a multipolar world, analysts said that gravity always wins and that it remains difficult to break the dominant position of the U.S. markets and U.S. wholesale banks over the medium term.

Among the picks are BlackRock, Amundi, Intercontinental Exchange, Standard Chartered, Mizuho Financial, Society General, BNP Paribas, Citi, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs. And you can see the full list in our story on Seeking Alpha. Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there. That's all for today's Wall Street Brunch. Look for links to stories in the show notes section. Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com slash WSB.

and join the elite community of real investors to unearth great investing ideas. Just head to SeekingAlpha.com slash subscriptions.